I think a lot of people are sleeping on Ian Machado Garry here.

Yes, Islam has not lost a fight in ten years and has torn through everyone he has crossed paths with, but I think Machado Garry’s size advantage plays a role here.

At 6’3”, the Irishman is easily the tallest opponent Makhachev has faced in the UFC, and when you consider Machado Garry has an 80% takedown defence rate in his UFC run, I think Islam has his work cut out.

Machado Garry previously took the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov to a decision back at UFC 310, and while he didn’t get the job done, I think he has enough to at least see out the full five rounds against Islam.

I’m not a fan of backing Islam at such a short price of 1/3, so I think backing the fight to go the full five rounds is the value play.

I also think the co-main event will go the full five rounds at UFC 330.

This is a simple case of both fighters cancelling each other out.

Mackenzie Dern has the best ground game of any female fighter in the UFC, winning half of her 16 fights by way of submission.

Canadian Gillian Robertson boasts the impressive record of having the most submission wins of any female in UFC history (7), and has been on an impressive five-fight win streak.

Three of Robertson’s last five have gone the distance, whilst three of Dern’s last four have gone to the judges’ scorecards.

Dern by submission is an attractive prospect at 9/4, but I think the jiu-jitsu of both women will cancel each other out.

People will forget that Jalin Turner looked like one of the most exciting 155 lbs prospects during his five-fight win streak in 2020-2022.

He fell short against the top tier of the division, including Renato Moicano, Dan Hooker, and Mateusz Gamrot, but a TKO win over veteran Edson Barboza should fill him with confidence heading into his bout with Kaue Fernandes.

Brazilian Kaue Fernandes is riding a three-fight win streak in the company following a destructive TKO win over Harry Hardwick back in September.

That being said, this is the Kaue Fernandes who dropped a decision to an over-the-hill Marc Diakiese in his UFC debut.

At 6’3”, Turner is such an awkward 155er to fight, and I just can’t see Fernandes getting the job done here.

Yes, Vicente Luque may be past it, but this price is too good to ignore against mediocre competition in Tresean Gore.

Luque has long been a fan-favourite since his UFC debut in 2015, and whilst he’s traded wins and losses over that time, he has always fought the best.

TUF alumni Gore has a 6-4 pro record and has gone 3-4 in the UFC. He’s the archetype fighter people will point to when discussing the UFC’s decline in quality.

Luque choked out Kelvin Gastelum back in April, and I think most would say a 2026 Kelvin Gastelum poses a bigger threat than Tresean Gore.

EVS for Luque to win is in itself a good value single.