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Ukraine v England
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Date: Saturday 9th September
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Competition: Euro 2024 Qualifiers
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Kick off: 17:00
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Watch live: Channel 4
It is strange to think that this time last year the international scene was dominated by a build-up towards a World Cup. However, now the team is back on the qualification horse, the success has returned. England sit at the top of Euro Qualifying Group C with four wins from four matches and a +14 goal difference. There can be no doubt that England have become a highly reliable qualifying juggernaut in recent years. A far cry from the nervy qualification campaigns of the 1990s and 2000s.
Southgate himself is probably on his final qualifying cycle and will certainly want to make the process as straightforward as possible. A win against Ukraine, being played in Poland due to the conflict, would set England up perfectly for the remainder of the campaign having played most of their difficult fixtures already. For the “home” side, football remains a much lower priority for the country. As the war continues in Ukraine, football can only take place outside of the country and the national team continues to play in neighbouring Poland.
From a qualification perspective, Ukraine know that in a group containing both England and Italy, as well as a tricky North Macedonia, they will have to produce some excellent results. This certainly seemed to stir them in Skopje as they were 2-0 down to North Macedonia before a complete turnaround saw them leave with all three points. These two met earlier in the group stage at Old Trafford in March. It was a very comfortable home win for the Three Lions with Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka on the scoresheet. England would love a similar performance and scoreline on Saturday.
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Ukraine v England Cheat Sheet
Here is our Ukraine v England cheat sheet. This has all the stats that directly link to the bet builder markets offered by Betfair, from shots on target to fouls to team cards.
In this next section, we will be breaking down some of the key elements and sharing some of our potential picks. If you’re thinking of having a Ukraine v England bet builder then why not join Betfair? They are currently offering £50 in free bets to new customers, and claiming it couldn’t be simpler:
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Ukraine Stats: Improvement required if the Blue & Yellows are to trouble England
It was mentioned in the introduction that Ukraine succumbed to a 2-0 victory at Old Trafford in March. The Blue and Yellows not only conceded a couple of first-half goals, but they were totally nullified in attack.
They managed only three shots in total in the match, and they totalled only 0.14 xG with those shots, none of which were on target. By contrast, England generated 2.21 xG from 18 shots with eight on target. There is a big turnaround in performance required for Ukraine to put the probability of them getting a result in their favour.
The lack of home advantage is going to hurt them in this regard as well. Ukraine did dominate Malta in their last home qualifier, but that is to be expected against the minnows of the group. To help further with the statistical knowledge of Ukraine’s opponents England’s performances away from home in similar matches to this, there is some data using only matches against teams with a similar ranking to Ukraine below.
From a tactical perspective, Ukraine are unlikely to dominate possession against England. They managed only 36% in the return fixture, however, they did have 49% in the Euro 2021 quarter-final. That figure would’ve been affected by the fact that Harry Kane opened the scoring after four minutes though.
The question is, do Ukraine have the pace and quality on the break to disturb England’s defence? Evidence suggests that it could be a struggle as Scotland limited them to only three attempts, Germany four attempts, and even that comeback win against North Macedonia was achieved with only seven shots, all three on target went in.
England Stats: Qualifying dominance getting even stronger
If England are able to pick up where they left off in the qualification cycle then they are well capable of achieving a victory that would almost ensure their qualification for the Euros halfway through the fixtures.
The World Cup quarter-finalists have plundered 15 goals in four matches, more than any other nation at this stage in qualification. Other than a nervy second half in Italy, their record has been achieved with heavy dominance in their performances.
That Italy match in Napoli was the only time in a year in which England failed to have the lion’s share of possession. Last time out against North Macedonia, England had 67% of the ball and fired off 14 shots to their opponent’s 0. In the section above, we showed the statistics of England’s performances away from home in similar matches to this one against Ukraine, and to provide you with a fuller picture, we have also included their statistics at home below.
England have certainly improved their away record under Southgate, but they haven’t been bullet-proof. The loss to Czech Republic in 2019 proves this, but at the same time, four years is quite a long time in international football and England have been Euro finalists and World Cup quarter-finalists since.
🎯 Ukraine Offensive Stats: Tsygankov becoming Ukraine’s main man
Ukraine’s paucity of shots is a bit of a problem that Sergiy Rebrov needs to solve. Rebrov is no stranger to attacking as a former Dynamo Kyiv and Premier League goalscorer, but he is lacking a talents such as himself in his own line-up. However, Viktor Tsygankov has begun to step up to the plate. The Girona forward isn’t a central striker, he is more of a natural #10, but contributes from a wide forward position in Ukraine’s 4-3-3. He is also their penalty-taker and that has been important in getting their winner in North Macedonia.
England are likely to establish control early and if they do score in the first half then the game completely changes from that point onwards. Vladyslav Vanat and Viktor Tsygankov are Ukraine’s biggest shooting threats, and also, Andriy Yarmolenko sits only four goals away from Ukraine’s all-time goalscoring record. However, in terms of value, it could be worth chancing Arsenal’s Oleksandr Zinchenko to have at least a shot in the match. The Ukraine captain was absent through injury for the first part of their campaign and so isn’t heavily featured in the data, but previous data tells us that he has much more of an attacking licence for his country than in club football.
Over Zinchenko’s career, he averages 0.01 xG, barely a threat at all. However, for Ukraine, he is averaging 0.11 xG per 90 minutes. He also averages well over one shot per 90. The only thing to bear in mind is that Ukraine’s line for shots could be quite low. This helps in terms of the price offered but is something to bear in mind when calculating the value for individual players.
🎯 England Offensive Stats: Variety of options makes Three Lions a dangerous beast
England come into this match full of confidence and with some consistency in their attacking unit. It is expected, barring injury, that a forward line of Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, and Bukayo Saka will start. All three of the England men have notched for their clubs already this season and have begun to look cohesive for their country as well. The midfield support of Jordan Henderson, if selected, and, particularly, Real Madrid superstar Jude Bellingham also adds to the attacking options at Gareth Southgate’s disposal. England have been out-creating and out-shooting their opponents on a regular basis, with the Italy away match an outlier. Even in the World Cup quarter-final defeat to France, England managed 16 efforts to Les Bleus’ eight.
England’s goal difference of +14 shows the superiority they have had over their opponents so far, obviously helped by the 7-0 over North Macedonia, but Ukraine will have a job on their hands to keep England’s wide-men, in particular, quiet. It may be worth looking into the overs markets for England from an offensive perspective. Even in away games England has been impressive from an attacking output perspective. Though Harry Kane is the obvious threat for goals, it is worth considering Marcus Rashford’s recent form in an England shirt. Now that Rashford has become more settled in his role for both club and country his shot data is excellent.
He sits above Harry Kane in the shots taken per 90 charts and with England likely to have a little bit more space on the counter-attack, given the location and the state of the game, it seems more likely that Kane may be able to drop a little deeper to find the runs of Rashford and Saka, giving the United man more emphasis on being on the end of moves and getting the shots away. Another shooting angle to consider comes from England’s set pieces. They are known to work hard on set plays in England camps and the number of shots that come from attacking free-kicks and corners is pretty high. Take a look at Harry Maguire (1.26 shots per 90 in the World Cup) and, potentially, Marc Guehi, to have a shot in the match.
🛑 Ukraine Defensive Stats: Signs that Ukraine could struggle to hold Three Lions
Despite currently sitting second in the group Ukraine have a negative ratio for shots taken and shots against. They have been put under pressure quite regularly, except by Malta.
There are some talented defenders in the Ukraine line-up but they are continuing to undergo a bit of a transformation. Everton’s Mykolenko and Bournemouth’s Zabarnyi are likely to form part of the defensive structure with Mykolenko up against Bukayo Saka. Saka is England’s second-highest foul earner, with Mykolenko third for Ukraine in terms of tackles. This could be a battle worth keeping an eye on in the cards market.
There could be some concern about Taras Stepanenko as well. He is 34 years of age now, and if he plays in midfield especially, he could be really up against it versus the likes of Bellingham and Declan Rice.
🛑 England Defensive Stats: Pickford to be on the beach again?
One of the more remarkable stats in the Cheat Sheet is under England GK Saves, where the average per 90 is zero. Jordan Pickford has been earning his money mainly by passing the football.
However, there will be no John Stones for England. Marc Guehi is likely to deputise as the right-sided central defender alongside the immovable, at least for England, Harry Maguire. This is unlikely to see major changes to the way that England play and the impressive thing about the way that England defends starts from the front regardless.
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