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Value Bets – Football Tips and Predictions for Today [April 12th Fixtures]

Value Bets – Football Tips and Predictions for Today [April 12th Fixtures]

Tuesday 8 April, 20251 min read
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ABC Editorial Team

The ABC Editorial Team have a combined Sports Journalism experience of 20+ years. They love to crunch the numbers for all betting predictions, meticulously finding value in each selection. Football experts in their own right, they each bring specialists sports and leagues to the table. Whether it be football, horse racing, boxing, darts, or NFL, our team is equipped to bring you the most insightful and valuable betting tips around.

In this article...

Saturday's Value Bets

🏆 Wrexham to Win v Wigan @ 2.20

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🏆 Over 2.5 Goals in Crawley v Leyton Orient @ 1.80

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🏆 Tranmere to Win v Accrington @ 2.62

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What is a Value Bet?

A value bet is simply a bet where we believe the likelihood of the bet winning is greater than the implied probability of the odds. Odds of evens have an implied probability of 50% that the bet wins. This knowledge allows us to get ahead of the odds, potentially shortening and, therefore, find value.

Value bets is an article where we tip selections earlier in advance of the event than we do otherwise on-site, to maximise our chances of spotting value by picking bets earlier in the week that we believe will shorten in odds by the time kick-off arrives, in aiming to beat the closing line.

Enhance your punting potential ahead of the EFL weekend by equipping yourself with the best Free Betting Offers to utilise on our Expert Football Predictions. Our bet365 Review is a shrewd visit to ensure you're making the most of our EFL Football Tips in 2024/25.


Saturday's Value Bets

Wrexham to Win v Wigan

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Kick Off: Saturday 12th April at 12:30

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Odds: 2.20

Wrexham have taken control of the race for promotion with a great sequence of results, including six wins in their last eight.


They have powered clear of Wycombe, who play their game in hand on Wrexham away at Huddersfield on Tuesday night. This will determine how much of a lead Wrexham will have in second place ahead of this one, but it won't change the objective for Phil Parkinson and his men; they want to secure that promotion ASAP.


Wigan are still under some threat of relegation, albeit slim. Their Tuesday fixture at Exeter will have an effect on this, but it is unlikely to have a huge impact on their price here either way.


However, Wrexham's price currently looks too high. The narrative angle is strong to start with, which should attract the casual money, and Wrexham's form is strong enough for the semi-educated punters as well.


What really attracts from a professional perspective is that they are currently at a bigger price than Bolton Wanderers went off at when Bolton visited Wigan a week ago. Also, Stockport went off even money at Wigan back in gameweek 32. Wrexham would be rated at least as strong as those other teams, possibly stronger, and there isn't enough circumstantial change, for either club, to mitigate any reason why Wrexham shouldn't be at least the same price or shorter for this match.


Wrexham will end up even money or shorter before kick-off, and then team news could have an effect one way or another.

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Over 2.5 Goals in Crawley v Leyton Orient

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Kick Off: Saturday 12th April at 15:00

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Odds: 1.80

Whilst the EFL in general has been a bit short on goals all season, there is reason to believe that this line has been slightly mispriced.

Crawley have generally been ones to watch for goals all season. They currently have conceded the joint highest number of goals in the EFL, alongside Plymouth, but they have good attacking weapons too, especially since the return of Scott Lindsey at the helm.

Crawley's recent league results read 1-3, 3-4, 4-0, 1-0, and 1-5, so an average of 3.6 goals per game in that period. Even the 1-0 saw 2.4 xG created between Crawley and Bristol Rovers.

Lindsey's first spell with Crawley was obviously highly successful, but also synonymous with attacking football and an overperformance of their xG. Attacking football also often goes hand-in-hand with conceding more chances the other way, so Orient should be plotting to take advantage of this.

Orient's recent matches have been much tighter than Crawley's, but even so, three of their last five league games have gone over 2.5 goals.

This bet is mostly predicated on Crawley and Scott Lindsey, though, and it should also be mentioned that Crawley really need to win this match to give themselves any chance of staying in League One. 0-0 is not a scoreline that suits either party, with Orient also six points away from the top six.

All of these circumstances are likely to see goals being backed here and the over 2.5 price should come in a few points.

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Tranmere to Win v Accrington

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Kick Off: Saturday 12th April at 15:00

📈

Odds: 2.62

It was a few short weeks ago that Accrington visited Tranmere and came away from Prenton Park with a 1-0 victory that seemed to secure Accrington and plunge Tranmere into the relegation fight.

How things change. Andy Crosby’s effect on Tranmere has been metamorphic, and Tranmere are sailing clear of trouble off the back of four wins in six, whilst Accrington are the ones in 22nd with no wins in five and two heavy defeats coming into this.

So, form is in Tranmere's favour, confidence is also in their favour, and looking at the prices from their last clash, Tranmere going off at 2.15 to Accrington's 3.3, there is probably a bit more juice in the current price here.

Tranmere were 2.6 going to Harrogate Town last week, a team in better form than Accrington and also when Tranmere's run wasn't as convincing as it currently is. The current prices are exactly the same as the kick-off prices last week between Accrington and Fleetwood, and that ended in a landslide 1-4 to Fleetwood.

A win here will surely see Tranmere safe and they can breathe a big sigh of relief and start to look ahead to next season with a degree of certainty.

Tranmere will go off around 2.5 or shorter for this match.

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Tips for Exchange Betting

Odds tend to move more on betting exchanges and the Betfair Exchange is a great place to make the most of that. If you've never used the exchange before, here is an explainer video to get you up to speed.

How to use The Betfair Exchange | Trading Football with Dimitar Berbatov.


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A value bet is a bet in which the odds, and implied probability, of the outcome have been underestimated by the bookmaker. For example, if you can justify that there is a 60% chance (1.67 odds) that Man Utd win but the bookie's odds are at 2.0 (50% chance) then you have found value.
Value betting is a betting strategy that increases your chances of turning a profit, beating the bookmaker, in the long term. Winning a bet at odds of 1.80 that is priced elsewhere, or goes off, at 1.60 is the way to go - finding overpriced bets with regularity.