There is a note of caution to be sounded when looking for a bet this week. Having run the numbers for all the EFL divisions’ final day the fact that a team needs to win against a team who doesn't isn't necessarily a golden ticket.

Having said that, each match and situation should be taken on its merits, and we are happy to suggest that Luton still look a bit of value here, and, moreover, that money will come for the Hatters and shorten their price again before kick-off.

Matt Bloomfield doesn't quite have the luxury of having Luton safe just yet, but their fate is in their own hands. A sequence of three wins in a row has put them into this position, and they have become really settled in their tactics and formation as the season has built to a climax.

The impact of Thelo Aasgaard in particular, but also Millenic Alli and Sondre Langas, has been a contributing factor, and with the likelihood of those players being available once more, with the only absentee possibly the red carded Liam Walsh, we can be confident of a solid and resolute display once more from Luton.

They have conceded only four goals in nine matches since being humbled by Burnley in gameweek 36, and this has been the foundation to their remarkable potential escape.

Meanwhile, West Brom have slid dreadfully into mid-table and have displayed little to suggest that they will be capable of producing the enterprise required to break down a solid Luton rearguard.

A point may end up being enough for Luton as the game progresses but they will at least start with the idea that a win sees them in the Championship next year regardless of what happens elsewhere. With their form and the lack of it from West Brom, Luton could start this match much nearer even money.

Charlton can no longer go up automatically following their 0-3 defeat at Wrexham last weekend.

However, they were still close to being a selection here because their home form, in particular, is so strong. Whilst they are the likelier winners, there is probably more juice in the price for goals than a home win.

Eight of Charlton's last nine matches have gone over 2.5 goals. Nathan Jones isn't usually known for his free-flowing attacking football, but those who remember his League One Luton Town side will recall that they were full of goalscoring threat all over the pitch, and he has successfully moulded this Charlton team into major threats as well.

Burton are no stranger to goals in their matches either. They have practically secured their place in League One next season with a masterful piece of management by Gary Bowyer, who always instils a good playing philosophy alongside organisation. Burton have seen over 2.5 goals in six of their last seven as well.

Whilst last season’s League One final day was firmly devoid of the perceived fun in the sun element, only 2 goals per match on average on final day 23/24, the usual type of match that produces the highest number of goals on final day in League One is one where neither team has anything to play for. This type of match averages 3.21 goals, and 64% of the matches in this category go over 2.5 goals.

It is predicted by the bookmakers that it is 50/50 whether this match goes over 2.5 goals; many punters, both professional and casual, are likely to see this as over 2.5, and the price is likely to reduce as more focus is placed upon it.

Doncaster are the team that have emerged as the one most likely to win the title on final day. Whilst promotion has been secured, and is always the primary target, the form that Rovers have displayed to get to this point rates them as a team that is currently better than Notts County.

Crucially, for this bet, Notts County managed to secure a play-off berth last week. This means that, essentially, it is Doncaster with more to play for, assuming that they do want to finish top of the league.

League Two is the EFL league with the largest bias towards teams who have something to play for against teams who don't. From 24 matches in the post-COVID period in League Two where a team has needed a result on the final day, only one has tasted defeat. There have been 14 wins and 9 draws for the teams chasing something in League Two.

Whilst this situation isn't quite as cut and dried as those studied in the research, it is Doncaster with the greater motivation, and the greater form, to take into this clash, and they are currently priced as the outsiders in the draw no bet market.

County have lost their last two home fixtures against Salford and Cheltenham, indeed they have only one win in six league matches at Meadow Lane, so there isn't much to suggest that home advantage is much of an advantage to them at the moment.

It is safer to play the Draw No Bet market in this scenario because it may transpire during the game that a point is enough for Doncaster if Port Vale aren't winning.