In this article…
Value bets is an article where we tip selections earlier in advance of the event than we do otherwise on-site, to maximise our chances of spotting value by picking bets earlier in the week that we believe will shorten in odds by the time kick-off arrives, in aiming to beat the closing line.
What is a value bet?
A value bet is simply a bet where we believe the likelihood of the bet winning is greater than the implied probability of the odds. Odds of evens have an implied probability of 50% that the bet wins. This knowledge allows us to get ahead of the odds potentially shortening and, therefore, find value.
Enhance your punting potential ahead of the EFL weekend by equipping yourself with the best free betting offers to utilise on our expert football predictions. Our Betfair review is a shrewd visit to ensure you’re making the most of our EFL football tips in 2024/25.
⚽ Plymouth v Sunderland
📅
Kick Off: Saturday 14th September at 15:00
🏆 Sunderland to Win
📈
Odds: 1.80
This is an obvious weekend accumulator lock that it is worth getting with early in the week before the price comes in.
This could end up much closer to 1.5 in price as the obvious form claims for Sunderland, and the poor start of Plymouth, are studied by the vast majority of punters before deciding that the contrast in performance between the two represents a bet at the price.
Sunderland have obviously begun with four wins in a row, and whilst everyone will be aware that a run like that cannot continue, it is indicative of how confident the team is at the moment under Regis Le Bris.
Sunderland have conceded only once, a comedy own goal at that, and this is totally backed up by the xG data which shows that Sunderland have conceded the least in the league at 1.9 xG across the four matches.
Plymouth are way at the opposite end of the scale. They have conceded 9.2 xG in four matches, joint worst alongside Portsmouth, and way clear of Preston in third. However, Plymouth’s opponents have not been teams that one would describe as promotion favourites. Where Portsmouth have played Sunderland, Middlesbrough, and Leeds, Plymouth’s fixture list has been Sheffield Wednesday, Hull, QPR, and Stoke.
Concerningly for Plymouth, their attack hasn’t fired either. If Morgan Whittaker can be halted then there looks to be a lack of quality that is evident in the data. Plymouth sit rock bottom of the xG created table with only 1.8 xG across four matches, and their best individual chance in that time is a strike from outside the area.
This will be a popular tip and a popular bet this week given all of the background data, so getting onboard at an early price should be a good option.
⚽ Crawley Town v Stockport
📅
Kick Off: Saturday 14th September at 15:00
🏆 Stockport to win
📈
Odds: 1.72
Crawley are beginning to regress to the mean a little bit after the pre-season relegation candidates had a flying start to their League One campaign.
Both of these teams were promoted out of League Two last year, but Stockport finished the season top of the league, whilst Crawley scraped into seventh, 22 points behind County. This put Stockport around 0.5pts per game better than Crawley over the course of the whole 23/24 campaign.
The summer then saw completely contrasting episodes for both clubs. Whilst Crawley lost almost their entire promotion group and had to find a replacement squad, Stockport kept their key players and were able to build on them with the likes of Oli Norwood and Crawley’s former goalkeeper Corey Addai.
Stockport have begun the League One campaign in flying form. Three wins and a draw in which they won the xG battle 0.15 to 2.5 against Mansfield demonstrates this. The Hatters are ranked 3rd for xG created and 1st for xG conceded over the small sample size, and punters will want to be with them over a team that was perceived so negatively over the summer.
Crawley have an over performing manager in Scott Lindsey, but their recent trajectory is concern ahead of this one. No goals in three matches, and their performance data shows that they have conceded 7.5 xG in their four league games so far. They also rank 22nd for xG created with only 2.8 xG in total.
Stockport will likely be heavily involved in weekend accumulators, so getting them onside early in the week is recommended.
⚽ Empoli v Juventus
📅
Kick Off: Saturday 14th September at 17:00
🏆 Juventus to win
📈
Odds: 1.75
This price will not stay, it feels like a foregone conclusion that punters will latch onto Juventus and back them here.
There are many reasons for this. Firstly, more casual bettors will obviously have strong name recognition, and especially against a lesser name in Empoli, will fairly automatically add Juventus into their bet slips at a price that most people will equate to close to even money.
However, there are genuinely good reasons to back Juventus here. Empoli have actually had a good start to the season themselves, unbeaten in the league at this stage, and with a good home win under their belt in the Coppa Italia against Catanzaro, but they were pretty fortunate to emerge with a point against Bologna having only had three shots in the whole match.
Juventus are under new management in Thiago Motta, the coach that guided Bologna into the Champions League last season, and the Old Lady have started very impressively under him.
They have yet to concede a goal in the league, and more impressively than that, they have yet to give up more than 0.5xG in a match. Their six goals have come from five different players, showing the diversity of their threats, but, also, it is important that Dusan Vlahovic is off the mark early.
Whilst it may be a stretch to suggest that they can beat Inter to the title, a lot of people will be already upgrading the Turin side in their ratings. As such, the punters will be quick to latch onto the new Juventus, at least until further evidence can be gathered, and will be keen to add them into their accumulators this week. This should bring the price into an expected 1.6ish and give us a nice value bet at this stage.
Tips for Exchange Betting
Odds tend to move more on betting exchanges and the Betfair Exchange is a great place to make the most of that. If you’ve never used the exchange before, here is an explainer video to get you up to speed.
How to use The Betfair Exchange | Trading Football with Dimitar Berbatov.
18+ please gamble responsibly.
Written by an Andy verified content writer