Wigan have probably been one of the most unfortunate teams so far when considering performances v results in League One.

The xG table, where points are attributed based on the quantity and quality of chances created in matches, rather than the goals scored, would have Wigan up in fourth, place rather than their actual 13th. Whilst this obviously shouldn’t be taken as gospel, it does indicate that Wigan are playing well and producing more chances than they are taking.

Lincoln are a solid team, especially at home, but they have benefitted from exactly the opposite results v performances trend that Wigan have suffered from. Their xG based league position would be 15th, rather than their current 9th.

It is a surprise to see Lincoln so short against a team that have created more xG than them and conceded fewer xG as well, especially as bookmaker models are primarily based on these numbers.

Wigan have had a fairly tough opening set of fixtures and are probably being underrated in general, I expect the market to latch onto their data and performances and have them priced under 2/1 by kick-off.

Despite the fact that I have been slightly underwhelmed by Stockport so far this season, this is balanced for this tip by the fact that Plymouth have been exceptionally poor and look a genuine relegation candidate at this stage of the season.

Whilst I do expect Plymouth to steer clear of the bottom four by the end of the season, it may take investment in January, or a change in management, to achieve this. The Pilgrims have been strong at home over the last few seasons, and their home form could save them again this term, but this is still a match against one of the strongest teams in League One.

Stockport have scored in all of their away games this season, and whilst they have only won one of those, at Wycombe, the others have been against Wigan and Leyton Orient - teams that I rate higher than Plymouth at this stage.

This Stockport price is more likely to be around even money by the time of kick-off, especially when people are looking for matches to put into their L1/L2 accas on Saturday, given the lack of domestic football on that day.

I'm not sure that we will be seeing MK Dons being odds against at home very much this season, and, indeed, I'm not sure that they will be odds on by kick-off anyway.

International breaks are always a bit of a strange one. The casual, acca punters have a much reduced slate to work with, especially now that the international programme is spread out over a number of days. This often distorts the market a bit more, especially on matchdays where more may be staked on fewer matches and the “run-up” liabilities on accas placed on fewer clubs mean that bookies may be more willing to move their prices in reaction to that.

All of this is to say that MK Dons are likely to be a popular pick for accas on Saturday and this could have an impact on their price on the day. Again, a part of this is perception, MK Dons have made waves in the last couple of days in the window with their recruitment, which adds to a squad of names that most football fans will be aware of. 

I like Grimsby this season but I must admit that their display at the weekend was disappointing. Part of this can be put down to the incredible midweek that they had, but sometimes league form can suffer as a result of cup exploits.

MK Dons have won, drawn and lost so far at home, but they have had lots of shots and generated a high xG number. They won the xG battle but lost the match against Walsall, for which they were a shorter price than this, they went off 1.81 for that match.

Walsall played Grimsby recently and went off favourites at home against them. This suggests that they are rated fairly similarly as teams, so the price for MK Dons looks mathematically out here.