Whilst this may seem like a fairly short price already for a Championship match, there are reasons to believe that Watford could get even shorter before kick-off.

Whilst Plymouth will not give up the fight until it is mathematically impossible to survive, the defeat to Derby County just before the international break was a big blow to their hopes of remaining in the Championship next season.

The match before that, Portsmouth were 1.57 to beat Plymouth, and whilst Portsmouth were in good home form, they would still be rated as a worse team than Watford in a neutral circumstance. Though Plymouth did end up winning that match, they did so by scoring two of six shots, and by creating only 0.25 xG and conceding 1.72 xG, so overall it was a very fortunate victory in terms of chances created.

This match goes alongside three other defeats either side, and, indeed, Plymouth have only won that one Portsmouth match in their last eight matches in all competitions.

Watford are still in the play-off race, but wins are becoming all-important with them being five points off West Brom in 6th. Their home form has been their strength this season, with 11 wins from 19 Championship matches, and they have been particularly strong against teams at the bottom end of the table.

From Swansea in 16th downwards, Watford have won six of their seven home games against those teams at the bottom of the league. The only reversal was a 1-2 defeat to Cardiff.

Plymouth are currently priced at 5.0 for this match. They were 5.75 at Portsmouth, and 6.0 at Hull, in their most recent away matches. Portsmouth, Hull, and Stoke were all shorter prices to beat Plymouth at home recently than Watford currently are.

Watford should shorten up to at least the 1.60 or below mark in this fixture.

Barnet are almost there in terms of winning the title and promotion back into the EFL.

Their latest win on Saturday took them 14 points clear, so only a couple of wins in the remaining seven matches should secure that goal, and this seems like a really good opportunity for Barnet to continue their streak.

The leaders have now won eight in a row and are 24 matches unbeaten in the league. Whilst they have ‘only’ won their last three matches 1-0, two out of those three have been away from home, and now that those matches have been won and the gap to York in 2nd has been opened to such an extent, they should be able to play with a fair amount of freedom.

Meanwhile, on the other side, Gateshead seem to be playing with total fear. From a position comfortably inside the play-offs, the Heed have lost five in a row to be in serious danger of missing out altogether.

The last four of their defeats have all been by two goals, which is why a (-1) handicap bet appeals here. Barnet have beaten Yeovil 5-0 and York 3-1 at home recently, as well as thumping Oldham 3-0 and Rochdale 4-0 away from home. All teams who were in better shape than this current Gateshead outfit.

Barnet were supported from 2.0 to 1.57 ahead of their latest victory at Altrincham, and similar market support is likely here, especially given Gateshead’s struggles. This will also form part of many home accas this weekend, which will drive the price down further.

Barnet went off 1.22 in their last home game, they are currently 1.45 for the match price. They also went off 1.33 against Yeovil. The odds against price for the (-1) handicap will not last.

This column put Tamworth up on a double chance at Gateshead last week, this was supported from an odds-against price into 1.67 by kick-off.

Whilst this was partially as a result of Gateshead’s poor form, it is also because Tamworth are on the charge, and the 2-0 victory on Tyneside will only instil further confidence in the Staffordshire team.

The Lambs are now on the edges of the play-off race, but if their form continues then they have every chance of a shock entry into the top seven. They are now seven unbeaten, with four wins in their last five.

Tamworth lie just a place above Eastleigh having overtaken them at the weekend. Eastleigh’s form is poor, only one win in their last seven, and that at home to cast adrift Ebbsfleet.

Whilst top seven aspirations probably still apply to Eastleigh, their momentum has all but stalled, like a broken Spitfire that needs its propeller spinning again.

That spin is unlikely to occur here, and the market support that followed Tamworth last time is likely to come again against an opponent with very little reason to back them.

A useful recent comparison for prices is to observe both teams’ matches against Wealdstone. Eastleigh were slight outsiders against the relegation battlers and drew 3-3, whereas Tamworth thrashed Wealdstone 4-1 at home and were also strong favourites for that match.

This deservedly makes Tamworth favourites here, and it is likely that they will be into odds-on by kick-off.

A value bet is a bet in which the odds, and implied probability, of the outcome have been underestimated by the bookmaker. For example, if you can justify that there is a 60% chance (1.67 odds) that Man Utd win but the bookie’s odds are at 2.0 (50% chance) then you have found value.

Value betting is a betting strategy that increases your chances of turning a profit, beating the bookmaker, in the long term. Winning a bet at odds of 1.80 that is priced elsewhere, or goes off, at 1.60 is the way to go – finding overpriced bets with regularity.