💎 Gem Bet: Dan Burn 1+ Foul Committed @ 1.61 (Bet365)

This gem is best priced with Bet365. Sign up here and get £30 in free bets when you back this gem with £10.

Burn committed 34 fouls across his 37 Premier League appearances last season (0.92 per 90) with this record resulting in 11 yellow cards for the 33 year old - more than any other Newcastle player last season. 

Burn can sometimes have issues when it comes to dealing with strikers that are more mobile. Burn is more than comfortable in managing a physical striker but against a player like Watkins, Burn is often exposed with his lack of pace and agility meaning that Watkins can get joy against the centre back here, especially in situations where Aston Villa are able to knock the ball in behind the Newcastle backline for Watkins to chase. 

Aston Villa have plenty of speed in their frontline to cause Burn issues even aside from Watkins who will be Burn’s main opponent here. The signing of Evann Guessand from Nice adds another layer of speed and directness to the Villa frontline alongside the likes of Malen and Bailey. 

Watkins was superb in this fixture last season, picking up a goal and an assist as Villa ran out 4-1 winners over Newcastle. He tore Schar and Burn to pieces with both centre backs committing a foul and Schar being shown a yellow card. Burn contested five duels in the game, winning just one of these battles underlining the struggles he often faces against more nimble forwards. Burn didn’t commit a foul in the other head to head meeting, but he did play more than half the game without a direct opponent as Jhon Duran was sent off in the first half. 

Watkins won 33 fouls across his 31 Premier League starts last season (1.14 per 90) and we should see this record continue up against Burn who really struggled in this fixture last season, also scoring an own goal, which may push Unai Emery to target Burn in those 1v1 channels against Watkins again here in which the 33 year old doesn’t always look the most comfortable. 

There is real value with this selection when backing with Bet365, the exact same market is priced as low as 1.17 with other bookmakers which is a more realistic pricing when factoring in Watkins’ success against Burn in this fixture last season and Burn’s more overall foul record last campaign.