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12/1 Wales v Croatia Bet Builder Predictions and Tips

12/1 Wales v Croatia Bet Builder Predictions and Tips

Saturday 14 October, 20235 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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Wales v Croatia

📅
Date: Sunday 15th October
🏆
Competition: Euro 2024 Qualifier
⏰
Kick off: 19:45
📺
Watch Live: Viaplay Sports / S4C / BBC iPlayer

Fresh from their first World Cup since 1958 and having qualified for three of the last four major tournaments, Wales are looking to make it four in five, and a third European Championship finals in a row. The World Cup ended in disappointment, and the side is certainly weaker now without talisman Gareth Bale, but they do still hold some hopes of qualification from Group D.

Wales currently sit fourth in the group, six points (but with a game in hand) behind leaders Turkey, three behind second-placed Croatia, and level on seven points with Armenia, who are above Wales based on their head-to-head record. Croatia meanwhile are fresh off an extremely disappointing loss to Turkey, and whilst this is not yet must-win, a loss could well be fatal. A win for Wales would leave Croatia relying on other sides to get a result against Rob Page's men to allow them to regain the second qualification spot.

However it pans out, this should be a fascinating encounter, and we have prepared two Wales v Croatia bet builders to make the game even more enjoyable.

We have scoured the stats and prepared two exciting bet builders for this evening's game. The level 1 bet comes in at odds of 4/1 and the level 2 bet is priced at 12/1 for those looking for more bang for their buck.

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Now or never for Rob Page’s men to avoid the play-offs

A loss would all but eliminate Wales. They would no longer be able to overhaul Croatia, no matter what results follow for both sides and they would be relying on Turkey losing at home to Latvia to give them any chance of qualification.

Even with a win, it will still require a herculean effort, and in all likelihood would require Page’s side to win all three of their final games in this group to progress, facing the three sides above them in those remaining matches. Turkey and Croatia meanwhile have games against Latvia, who had lost every game before managing a shock win against Armenia on Thursday night.

Fortunately, as results stand elsewhere, Wales look to be in a strong position to snap up a play-off spot, so even if they fail to win, they may still feature in Germany next year.

Wales team news

Youngsters Charlie Savage and Joe Low both made senior debuts on Thursday in Wales’ 4-0 demolition of Gibraltar in Wrexham. Rob Page stated that both will now stay with the senior team and will not join up with the U21s, as was initially expected. Savage notched an assist, whilst injuries have opened up a spot for Low.

Aaron Ramsey is injured, so Ben Davies wore the armband in midweek and that looks likely to continue against Croatia.

With a rotated team playing against Gibraltar, plenty of changes should be expected, with Wayne Hennessey, Ethan Ampadu, Harry Wilson and Dan James all likely to return to the starting line-up for this crucial clash.

Trouble brewing in the Croatian camp

A huge spanner was thrown in the works just a day before the squad met up with Marko Livaja announcing his retirement from national team duties after being called up last week. Livaja caused controversy back in Croatia, with Sibenik fans taking offence to a song sung by the Hajduk Split player. Livaja was then abused at an open training session and walked off following an angry confrontation with fans.

Other players such as Bruno Petkovic have suggested they supported Livaja’s actions in confronting the abusive fans, but manager Zlatko Dalic offered no public support for his player, and this issue has continued to fester.

This toxic atmosphere, coupled with injuries, may well offer Wales the opportunity they need to overhaul their opponents in the Group D standings, avoiding the play-offs.

Croatia team news

Croatia are experiencing something of an injury crisis, with key men such as Andrej Kramaric, Ivan Perisic and Mislav Orsic sidelined.

Bruno Petkovic is a doubt as he returns from injury, though there is a small chance he may feature.

The Croatian side is still stocked with top talent however, with stars such as Luka Modric, Josko Gvardiol, Mateo Kovacic and Marcelo Brozovic all expected to start this game.

ABC's 4/1 Wales v Croatia bet builder

⚽ Over 1.5 goals

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Odds: 1.36
The previous game between these two sides finished 1-1, and with both teams needing a result, goals seem likely. Wales have seen two or more goals in four of their five qualifiers so far, the one exception being a narrow 1-0 win at home to minnows Latvia. The hosts have scored in four of their last five games and have conceded in three of those five. Croatia meanwhile have seen two or more goals in three of their five qualifiers, with two games finishing 1-0. Both of these games should have seen more goals, with Croatia piling up 4.02 xG against Armenia, and there was 3.78 total xG in their game against Turkey on Sunday.

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

🚀 Harry Wilson to have 2+ shots

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Odds: 1.83
Wilson is never afraid to shoot, and he has demonstrated that throughout these qualifiers, taking 15 shots across Wales’ five games. The only game in which he did not have two shots was the first of this qualifying group, in which Wilson was withdrawn on 63 minutes. With this being a crucial game, and with a lacklustre bench to turn to, Rob Page is likely to play Wilson for the vast majority of the 90 minutes. In Wilson’s last four competitive starts for Wales he has notched 5, 2, 3 and 4 shots respectively, including 3 in a tricky away tie in Turkey. There is little reason to suspect that this run will not continue, especially in what is close to a must-win game.

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

🚀 Mateo Kovacic to have 1+ shots

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Odds: 1.25
The Manchester City man is hardly known for his shots, but he is much more trigger-happy playing for his national team. Against Wales in March, all three of the Croatian midfielders (Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic and Kovacic) had at least one shot, with Modric and Kovacic having two apiece. With Croatia struggling to find a breakthrough in games of late, especially with so many attackers out injured, it seems likely that the midfield will again attempt to take matters into their own hands and force the issue. Kovacic has made three starts in this qualifying campaign and he has had at least two shots in all three.

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

🚀 Harry Wilson to commit 1+ fouls

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Odds: 1.36
Wilson has committed six fouls across his five starts during this qualifying campaign and is again likely to be forced to do a lot more defending than he would prefer, with Croatia almost certain to dominate possession. This will leave Wilson isolated against some of the world’s best ball-carrying midfielders, opening him up to the potential of committing a foul. Wilson is also fouled frequently himself, which can create running battles with opposition players, which usually leads to more fouls and a more watchful eye being cast on both players by the referee. Considering he averages 1.25 fouls per game for Wales, 1.40 is very good value, especially when considering that he will be tasked with going up against Modric and Kovacic in midfield.

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

ABC's 12/1 Wales v Croatia bet builder

⚽ Over 1.5 goals

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Odds: 1.36
With so much at stake and the attacking talent on both sides, over 1.5 goals feels like a very sensible selection to be included in both levels of our bet builder. Wales are far more dangerous on their home patch and though they're not as strong as the visitors on paper, we are confident that they can contribute to achieving this goal line. While it is also not essential to this leg of the bet builder that they do find the net.

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

🚀 Harry Wilson to have 2+ shots

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Odds: 1.83
Wilson will shoulder greater responsibility in the attacking third due to the players that are missing for Wales, and with that in mind the shots market appeals. The 26-year-old has shown his true class in flashes this season at Fulham but will be desperate to display his talent once more on the international stage. Wilson will throw his hat in the ring to take set pieces and should have an opportunity to test the Croatia keeper on more than one occasion.

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

🎯 Mateo Kovacic to have 1+ shots on target

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Odds: 2.75
As stated above, Kovacic shoots much more frequently for his national side. He has had at least two shots in his last three competitive national team games and has managed at least one shot on target in both of his last two, both tricky ties against Turkey. With the attacking options looking thin, Croatia’s midfield are all happy to shoot from range, and Kovacic is hugely overpriced, likely as a result of his reluctance to shoot at club level.

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

🛑 Ethan Ampadu to commit 2+ fouls

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Odds: 1.73
Ampadu committed three fouls in the reverse fixture, coming under serious pressure in that holding midfield role as Croatia’s midfield is stacked full of players comfortable receiving the ball in tight spaces, and using their close control to draw fouls. We should expect more of the same, with the starters likely to be the same three who started that game in March. Ampadu was booked and won just one of his six duels that night, looking noticeably off the pace next to world class opposition in Luka Modric, who was fouled four times in 90 minutes. With Wales likely to be under huge pressure, it seems certain that he will commit at least one foul across the 90 minutes and having played a full 90 in all five games so far, he will have plenty of time to commit another one to take us to two.

*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing

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