Harry Wilson has been Wales’ most impactful player in attack, leading the team in goals, shots on target, big chances created, overall shots, and key passes per game.

If Wales manages to generate any forward momentum, Wilson is likely to be at the heart of it. His consistent involvement in Wales’ offensive play makes this bet excellent value, as he’s almost certain to test the keeper at least once during the game.

Kerem Aktürkoğlu has been Turkey’s standout performer in the Nations League, scoring 4 goals and assisting once. He has averaged an impressive 1.8 shots on target per game, underscoring his consistency as an attacking threat.

Aktürkoğlu has also been in strong form at club level, netting 5 goals in 7 appearances for Benfica with an average of 1.3 shots on target per game. Although he may not play the full 90 minutes, Turkey’s need for a result makes his presence on the pitch likely, giving solid confidence in this selection.

Ben Davies, a mainstay in Wales’ defence, plays every minute for the national team and has averaged one foul per game in the Nations League.

His likely matchups against Turkey’s highly skilled attackers — such as Arda Güler, who draws an average of 1.8 fouls per game, and Kenan Yildiz, who draws 1.5, which will put Davies under pressure. His defensive role against these playmakers makes at least one foul highly probable at a nice price.

Turkey’s corner statistics in the Nations League are encouraging, with 18 corners across 4 games, averaging 4.5 per game. Given that they are favourites and in need of a result, Turkey will likely press forward, creating more goal-scoring chances.

This attacking pressure is expected to translate into multiple corner opportunities as they push for a victory. The odds reflect the high likelihood of Turkey generating enough chances to comfortably reach this corner count.

Wales have been consistently effective at generating corners in the Nations League, winning 19 across their four games, for an impressive average of 4.75 per game. Even in a tight, low-chance encounter with Turkey last time, Wales still managed to secure 4 corners.

With this being a must-win game for Wales, we can expect them to throw everything forward in pursuit of a result, which is likely to translate into corner chances. Given their track record and the urgency of the match, Wales hitting over 2.5 corners offers great value.

We’ve already referenced Wilson’s importance to his national team and the key areas where he leads his side. Wilson has also been a heavy shot taker for his club side, despite earning limited minutes. He notched 3 shots (scoring twice) in just 9 minutes against Brentford a couple of weeks ago, as well as registering another shot against Crystal Palace last time out – again, he only featured for 9 minutes in this match.

With an average of 3 shots per game in the Nations League, Wilson has proven to be at the center of nearly every offensive move Wales creates. Given his consistent involvement, he’s highly likely to test the keeper in this game making 2+ shots a solid selection.

Although this may not be a high-scoring game, the stakes and context make both teams scoring a strong possibility. Turkey currently sit two points above Wales with two games left to play, making this match crucial in the race for the top spot, which could secure a playoff place for the 2026 World Cup.

While Turkey might settle for a draw, Wales have no such luxury; they need a win to stay in contention. This urgency is likely to drive Wales forward in search of goals, while Turkey, with their attacking quality, are well-equipped to exploit the spaces that open up. Given the high stakes and Wales’ need to press, both teams finding the net looks like good value.

With Turkey coming into this match as heavy favourites and needing a result to secure their position in the group, they are expected to control much of the game and create numerous scoring opportunities. Turkey’s attack has been potent throughout the Nations League, they’ve had 29 shots on target in four games (7.25 per game). In a high-stakes match like this, Turkey will likely increase their attacking intensity, especially as they push for a goal to secure their lead in the group standings.

Wales’ goalkeeper will likely be called into action frequently to keep the scoreline close. Given Turkey’s attacking pressure and Wales’ need to withstand sustained periods, betting on the Welsh goalkeeper to make 4 or more saves is well-supported by the likely flow of the game.