Wednesday’s EFL Boosted Double

The first of two games in our boosted EFL double sees Sunderland hosting Huddersfield at the Stadium of Light.

The Black Cats are struggling for real consistency, but they have also been very emphatic in a lot of their home wins, especially their last two at the Stadium of Light.

They are averaging a 0.6 xG differential over their opponents so far at home, and only lost the xG battle once in ten home matches, and that was a freak game against Middlesbrough in which Dan Neil was sent off at half time.

Sunderland welcome Huddersfield to the Stadium of Light and it is fair to say that the Terriers are one of the poorer teams in the league. This is 4th against 23rd in the total expected points table, but since Darren Moore took over it is actually 3rd against 24th across those 9 matches.

Indeed, the expected points data suggests that Huddersfield have only ‘deserved’ to win two points on the balance of chances created. This points to a problem of keeping the opponents out whilst creating chances of their own. Indeed, their xG difference over the time is only better than Rotherham, QPR, and Norwich.

Huddersfield haven’t won away from home under Darren Moore, losing the xG battle in all but one of those matches as well, and by over 1 xG in three of the five matches against Coventry, Leeds, and Hull. This emphasises the point that the Terriers are really struggling to make enough of an impact away from home against a variety of opponents.

Sunderland will be keen to bounce back from their weekend defeat and replicate their convincing home wins of recent times. It is difficult to see anything other than Sunderland dominating the chance creation stats and so it is a case of relying on their ability to put those chances away.

The second game of Wednesday’s double is at Portman Road, where Ipswich welcome Millwall in the late kick-off.

Ipswich were somewhat put in their place against West Brom last time out. On this occasion they conceded early, not actually an uncommon occurrence for the Tractor Boys, but this time they were unable to assert themselves to come back into the game.

Carlos Corberan’s side are not a team to go behind to, especially early on, but Ipswich won’t face as stern a test against many, if any, other defences in the league.

Whilst Ipswich’s blistering start to the campaign may not be sustainable, there is still significant data to suggest that they are in a much better place than Millwall. Kieran McKenna’s men are still in the top six for expected points over the last seven games, whereas Millwall find themselves in 22nd.

Ipswich generated the highest xG in the division over that time period, over 2 xG per match, which contributes to their position in 2nd for overall xG difference. At home they have been especially strong in recent matches. They have won six in a row at Portman Road, but they have also dominated the chances by large amounts. The xG battles in those six wins were +0.8, +1.5, +0.4, +1.6, +1.6, and +2.8, thoroughly dominant.

Millwall haven’t won the xG battle in a Championship away game all season. Whilst many of the matches have been fairly tight, and actually they have lost only one away match, they have been fairly fortunate to turn -1 xG, -1.1 xG and -1.4 xG differentials into draws. If they produce a similar display here it is likely that Ipswich have the weapons to convert their chances, certainly their form suggests that is the case.