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Middlesbrough v West Brom 4/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Middlesbrough v West Brom 4/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Wednesday 17 September, 20254 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

Middlesbrough defend their unbeaten start to the Championship season against a West Brom team under a rookie manager, but also aspiring for promotion.

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Middlesbrough v West Brom Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Middlesbrough v West Brom
  • Championship
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 5.20

Over 2.5 Cards

Referee Andrew Kitchen has been averaging over 3.5 yellow cards this season, despite a career average below this, which indicates that he is happy to dish out the cards when required this season.

Between them, Middlesbrough and West Brom have had 20 yellow cards in five matches this season, which is an average of four per match, and matches involving Boro this season are averaging five yellow cards per match.

Over 9.5 Corners

Both teams are averaging more than 9.5 corners per match over the course of their last 30 matches, so this is a strong sample size.

West Brom have seen 10 corners in each of their last two away matches, as well as winning 10 without reply in their last Championship match vs Derby.

Middlesbrough have won an average of six corners per match over the last 30 matches they have played, as well as conceding 4.17. Their last home match saw 13 corners vs Sheffield United.

Aidan Morris to have 1+ Shots

Morris is a player that you can rely on to play almost every minute that he is available. This always gives him a great chance to get at least one shot off.

Morris has managed at least one shot in his last four matches, five shots in total. This comes out as a 25/26 season average of exactly one shot per 90 in the Championship.

Alfie Jones to Commit 1+ Fouls

Jones has had a convincing start to his Boro career, which has helped him to play the vast majority of minutes available.

However, he has also committed one foul in four out of the five Championship matches so far, which isn't represented in his odds here.

He will be in a physical battle against Aune Heggebø as well, which increases his chances of committing a foul in this match specifically.

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Middlesbrough v West Brom Best Longshot Bets
  • Middlesbrough v West Brom
  • Championship
  • 20:00
3 Selections @ 16.49

Nathaniel Phillips to have 2+ Shots

This is something that has happened in all bar one of West Brom's Championship matches thus far, and therefore to get odds against on it happening again looks good value.

Phillips is averaging two shots per match; obviously, the vast majority of these are headers from set pieces. He has had nine shots in his last four matches, mainly from this scenario.

West Brom are predicted to get their fair share of territory and therefore attacking free kicks and corners should come for them.

West Brom Corner Match Bet

Whilst I accept that Boro should be favourites in this market, as most home teams should be, they are very short at 1.4, far too short when considering the data.

Boro lost the corner count 5-8 to Sheff Utd last time out at the Riverside. Meanwhile, West Brom's last two away matches have seen them tie the corner count 5-5 against both Stoke and Portsmouth.

It could be closer than the odds suggest, so this value pick deserves to be in the long shot.

Middlesbrough to Receive the Most Cards

This is based on how I think this match might go from a tactical perspective. West Brom might be one of the few teams in the league to go to the Riverside and have more of the ball.

Middlesbrough commit more fouls per match than West Brom; they have had 13 yellow cards to West Brom's seven, and I think that they will commit more fouls here as West Brom hold the ball more.

All of this combined makes me think that pricing them as the outsiders in this market looks like decent value.

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📂 Middlesbrough v West Brom Cheat Sheet

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📈 Middlesbrough v West Brom & Tactics

Even the most optimistic of Boro supporters wouldn't have predicted 13 points from their opening five matches. The fixture list has been fairly kind, but the start buys Rob Edwards time now to assert himself in the role.

Edwards has made an adjustment to the Boro setup this year, moving away from a 4-2-3-1 shape to a 3-4-3, but, importantly, it is accentuating some of their key players’ best traits. The midfield pairing of Hayden Hackney and Aidan Morris is producing some excellent football and giving Boro the platform to both attack and defend.

There is also more choice in the forward positions now with the recruitment of David Strelec and Kaly Sene supplementing Tommy Conway and Morgan Whittaker. Sverre Nypan also adds some skill and thrust to the team, with Callum Brittain and Matt Targett providing quality, balance, and experience from wide.

Positives and negatives from Ryan Mason's start to life as a senior head coach. If it weren't for a late concession to Derby last time out, then we would be looking at two unbeaten teams here.

That home loss has taken the gloss off Mason as far as the Baggies fans are concerned, but in all fairness, West Brom deserved to win that match; it was something of a minor smash and grab by the Rams. Bearing in mind the relative uncertainty that West Brom started the season with, this looks a decent return to me.

The basic shape is a familiar one of 4-2-3-1. The tweaks that you will see from Mason are that left-back Callum Styles will move into midfield or support further up, allowing George Campbell to become more of a CB/RB hybrid to keep the solidity.

Isaac Price is the player to watch for West Brom. The system allows him something of a free role, and he has been using that to great effect in the attacking phase for the Baggies.


🏁 Ref Watch

Andrew Kitchen

Fouls pg

Yellows pg

Reds pg

Pens pg

24.11

3.21

0.08

0.15

Per game stats from Kitchen's 53 career Championship games.


📊 Middlesbrough v West Brom Stats

  • Despite being top of the league and third for goals scored, Boro are 18th for xG created, with only 5.8 xG from five matches.

  • Middlesbrough are the lowest crossing team in the Championship, with only 2.4 crosses per match.

  • Boro are conceding so little by way of chances - they're second in the league for xG conceded with 3.3 xG conceded.

  • West Brom have the highest number of completed passes per match in the league with 427 - the only team over 400.

  • Despite this, West Brom are only 14th for accurate long balls played.

  • West Brom are also really low for the number of fouls per match, 20th in the league with 9.8 fouls per match.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, Accumulator Tips, and Gem Bets, as well as Champions League Predictions for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

We've also got plenty of other content for Friday's fixtures, including Stuttgart v St Pauli Betting Tips, Both Teams to Score Tips, a Friday Player Prop Treble, and an Eeerste Goals Acca, as well as a Bet Builder for Newcastle v Barcelona.

On top of that, we also have Champions League Accumulator Tips, a Player Prop Acca, and Both Teams to Score Tips.

You can take a look at some of the best New Bookmaker Offers here if you're after some free bets. We recommend both the Paddy Power Sign Up Offer and bet365 Sign Up Offer, and the SBK Sign Up Offer.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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