• Wrexham are challenging for a first-ever second tier play-off place, it would be their first ever Premier League season if they did manage to get promoted

• Vitor Matos currently has the best points per game ratio for a permanent Swansea manager since Steve Cooper was in charge in 2019-2021

• If Wrexham do finish above Swansea this season, then it will be the first time that Wrexham will rank as the top Welsh club since May 2001

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📈 Wrexham v Swansea Form & Tactics

Wrexham need to be careful not to lose too much momentum at this stage. They gave everything against Chelsea at home in the FA Cup, but then seemed to suffer for energy in, arguably a more important match, against Hull at home at the weekend. This is their third home game in a row, so they do have that advantage over Swansea who travelled to Portsmouth on Tuesday, as well as having to go through the hills of Wales to get to Wrexham on Friday night.

Wrexham have conceded well over 1xG to each of their visitors in the last five matches to the Racecourse Ground in all competitions. They have shown the ability to keep things tight on the road though, so the defensive capability is there within the players and Phil Parkinson’s gameplan, I suspect that we may see something a little more circumspect in the derby game at least to begin with.

Swansea have definitely markedly improved under Vitor Matos. Their home record has been sensational, but the win at Portsmouth on Tuesday night will also have spurred the Swans’ confidence that they can do it on the road as well. That win made it five wins in eight for Swansea, and they are not out of the play-off picture yet, especially if they can beat Wrexham here.

Swansea’s progression can be seen in their expected goals differential. Their last 20 matches have seen their xG differential improve to +0.21xG per match, meaning that they are generally creating better scoring opportunities than their opponents. For the season as a whole, it is still negative, -0.12xG per match, so that indicates how big an improvement we have seen from Swansea recently.

📔 Wrexham v Swansea Formation & Team News

Wrexham continue to miss George Dobson who is serving the second of a three game ban for a straight red card. It could be a straight fight between Ollie Rathbone and Zak Vyner for the midfield spot, which will depend upon the balance that Phil Parkinson wants here.

I suspect that Parkinson will stick with the 3-4-2-1 that has fired Wrexham up the table, but perhaps one of Nathan Broadhead or Josh Windass will be sacrificed to the bench, with either Rathbone or Lewis O’Brien having the chance to play one of those #10 roles. Kieffer Moore is also injured, so Sam Smith will play as a #9.

For Swansea, Vitor Matos is likely to stick with a 4-3-3 shape, with Goncalo Franco likely to be the one to push on into advanced spaces from the midfield. Ethan Galbraith has been allowed back into his natural midfield position recently as Josh Key has come back into the fold and impressed at right back.

There are no obvious new injury concerns for Matos, so, barring rotation or tactical tweaks, he could name the same XI from Tuesday’s win over Portsmouth.

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