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Southampton v West Brom

The other half of the Championship play-off final will be decided at St. Mary’s on Friday as Southampton host West Brom, following a 0-0 in the first leg draw last Sunday.

We have the best football tips and predictions for the week’s action up on-site which includes our EFL tips, if you fancy taking on some extra funds for the play-offs you should visit our Free Bets Page ahead of kick-off.

For a fresh look at this week’s card, our BTTS tips will be of interest to you, while we have bet builder punters covered with our carefully curated list of the best bet builder bookmakers.

A slightly more entertaining 0-0 draw than the other Championship play-off semi-final is a bit of a backhanded compliment, but there probably should have been a goal in the first leg with a 1.99 xG total, split as evenly as is possible for that number, 0.99 to West Brom and 1 to Southampton.

As was discussed in the Leeds v Norwich preview, an away draw should, in theory, set up a home win in the second leg, especially given the team at home is the higher-ranked team over the course of the season.

However, results in the last two decades of Championship play-off matches that had a draw in the first leg suggest that this isn’t often the case. Only five home teams have gone on to convert within the 90 minutes, though it is fair to say that the recent sample size is very small.

Championship play-off semi-final second legs after a first leg draw:

2023: Middlesbrough 0-1 Coventry
2022: Huddersfield 1-0 Luton
2017: Reading 1-0 Fulham
2017: Sheffield Wednesday 1-1p Huddersfield
2015: Norwich 3-1 Ipswich
2014: QPR 2-1 Wigan (aet)
2013: Brighton 0-2 Crystal Palace
2011: Swansea 3-1 Forest
2011: Cardiff 0-3 Reading
2009: Sheffield United 1-0 Preston
2006: Preston 0-2 Leeds
2005: Ipswich 0-2 West Ham

However, what can be said with almost certainty is that West Brom have nothing to fear from going to St. Mary’s. They will intend to soak up pressure, without giving clear chances away, and then hit Southampton on the break, but will Southampton be able to control the match and rely on their excellent talent to win them the tie?

Southampton v West Brom Best Bets

➡️ West Brom double chance @ 2.20 on Sky Bet
➡️ Kyle Walker-Peters to be fouled 1+ times @ 1.25 on Betfair
➡️ Conor Townsend to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.67 on Betfair

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📂 Southampton v West Brom Cheat Sheet

There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets and we encourage you to find your own formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.

You can find West Brom v Southampton match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.

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⚔️ Southampton v West Brom Head-to-Head

Set pieces played a massive role in the first leg. Just under half of the xG generated in this match came from set pieces, with the person with the highest number of shots in the match being West Brom centre-back Kyle Bartley. Taylor Harwood-Bellis also registered two shots for Southampton, the same number as forwards Adam Armstrong and Sekou Mara.

The highest individual xG was generated by Grady Diangana, who is probably West Brom’s most in-form attacker.  Both of Diangana’s shots were on target, including a header which was one of the biggest chances of the match.

There weren’t many outstanding players in terms of fouls committed or fouls won. There was something of a battle down the Southampton right, with Kyle Walker-Peters fouled twice and Conor Townsend also fouled twice, though, interestingly, only one foul was committed between them. Joe Aribo was the player who committed the most fouls in the game with three.

Whilst we can expect the teams to open up somewhat in the second leg, the chances are that there will still be a degree of caution because of the way that Carlos Corberan tends to manage the big matches.

With that in mind and the way that the first leg panned out, there is an interesting bet builder angle that could land based on the actions of the first leg. There were 16 corners in total in the first leg, so adding over 9.5 corners into a bet builder with Joe Aribo to commit one foul and Kyle Walker-Peters to be fouled once looks a good bet at 2.8. Adding in a Grady Diangana shot on target boosts it to a massive 6.45, but that is a riskier proposition. 

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📊 Southampton Form and Stats

One could either consider the first leg another match in which Southampton failed to score, which would make it three times in their last four games, or view it as a match in which Southampton’s defence returned to the kind of form expected of them.

Che Adams is a big miss for the Saints, with Sakou Mara still not completely trusted by elements of the fanbase, it is clear that, at this moment, Mara is a bit of a downgrade on the Scottish international. At this stage, it is unknown whether Adams will be fit enough to play a part in the second leg.

Looking at Southampton’s home form, they won 48 points from 23 matches at St. Marys, so just over 2 points per match. Their recent form has been pretty solid as well, though they did lose to Stoke in their final home game of the regular season, albeit there was nothing to play for that day for Saints.

Their last ten home matches show an xG differential of +0.9 xG, so they are creating a goal’s worth of chances more than their visitors on average. This has translated into six wins, one draw, and three defeats in terms of results, so the form isn’t overwhelming, but it is a definite positive for Southampton’s chances of qualification.

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📊 West Brom Form and Stats

West Brom probably played how they would’ve been expected to play in that first leg, despite it being at home. They had a fair share of chances and tried to rely on some set-piece strength to give themselves a lead coming into this second leg.

Their away form across the season hasn’t been impressive though. Just six wins in 23 matches, with 26 points, just over a point per match.

Recent away results go along with that trend as well. Only two wins from their last ten away matches, with five draws, and three defeats. In that time they were soundly beaten on the xG count three times, but salvaged draws from all three of the matches at Ipswich, QPR, and Stoke. They lost their last two away matches in the league, but edged the xG battle on both occasions at Leicester and Sheffield Wednesday, both teams with much to play for on those occasions as well.

It is difficult to read into West Brom’s away form without considering the fact that this is a huge one-off match that Carlos Corberan has had plenty of time to prepare for. This is usually a sign that some tactical plan has been worked out, and often this will mean that West Brom will try to be solid defensively.

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💰 Southampton v West Brom Best Bets 

Given how tight the match could be and the way that the tactical setup could play into Corberan’s hands, the price on West Brom here is tempting.

From a best bet perspective, taking West Brom double chance at 2.20 with Sky Bet appeals as Corberan will probably prefer to take their chances in extra time or penalties than open up the match to the threat of the Southampton counterattack.

Also, Russell Martin is a patient manager and he will possibly trust that his team can break down West Brom given time, so an extra 30 minutes might be a potential solution for them to progress as well.

A couple of best bet recommendations that landed in the first leg and also look a good price here is for Kyle Walker-Peters to be fouled 1+ times at 1.25 with Betfair and Conor Townsend to commit 1+ foul at 1.67 with Betfair. This doesn’t require Townsend to foul Walker-Peters specifically for these to land, but that could be a scenario that easily occurs given Walker-Peters’ playing style.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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18+ please gamble responsibly.

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