I think Spain will prove too strong for Portugal on Monday night, which is why I’m backing them to qualify. Luis de la Fuente’s side stumbled in their opening group game when drawing 0-0 with Cape Verde, but have since responded with a hat-trick of victories over Saudi Arabia, Uruguay and Austria. The latter of those triumphs was by far the most complete and impressive performance of the three, with Spain increasingly looking as though they are beginning to click into gear.

Moreover, La Roja head into this tie unbeaten in 90 minutes since losing to Scotland in a World Cup qualifier back in March 2023. That record does not bode well for a Portugal side that failed to win two of their three group stage matches, drawing with DR Congo and Colombia. The Selecao then required a dramatic and controversial 2-1 win over Croatia just to reach the round of 16.

It is also worth noting that Roberto Martínez’s side lost to the Republic of Ireland during qualification and were held to a 2-2 draw at home to Hungary, further strengthening the case for Spain to progress to the quarter-finals.

I’m keen to back Nuno Mendes to be fouled at least twice. The Portuguese left back likes to bomb up and down the left flank, and his attacking threat often sees him on the receiving end of robust challenges. That has been particularly evident at the World Cup, with Mendes the most-fouled Portugal player to date, having been brought down 11 times across his four outings.

On closer inspection, it can be seen that he has been fouled multiple times in each of those four matches. It was a similar story during World Cup qualifying, where Mendes drew an average of 2.21 free kicks per game.

The case for this selection is strengthened by the direct match-ups he is likely to face in this last 16 showdown. Mendes will almost certainly be operating in the same areas as Lamine Yamal and Pedro Porro, both of whom committed fouls against Austria last time out. On top of that, Rodri is usually based on the right-hand side of Spain’s midfield pivot and may occasionally be pulled out wide to deal with Mendes. The Man City man has committed four fouls across his four World Cup appearances so far.

USA have been one of the surprises of the tournament so far for me. The mood around them before the World Cup wasn’t particularly positive, but Mauricio Pochettino has done what he is known for: bringing the group together. He’s also implemented his style of play on the side, which means that USA play with plenty of energy but are liable to end-to-end games, as Pochettino’s philosophy has never prioritised keeping the ball.

All four of their games have seen at least two goals, with two producing five. The two games they came with just one goal under this line were against sides that set up to sit deep, which won’t be Belgium’s approach here.

These sides actually faced off earlier this year in a friendly that produced seven goals, with Belgium coming away 5-2 winners. That match produced 33 shots, with each team having three big chances.

Belgium have kept only one clean sheet in their four World Cup matches, with their last two games seeing at least three goals.

Timothy Castagne averaged just 0.83 fouls per 90 for Fulham this season, which is nothing to write home about, but he has shown a tendency to rack up fouls when playing against more direct and technical wingers. He accounted for four of Belgium's 22 fouls against Senegal last time out, and he was fortunate to escape a booking in the end.

Christian Pulisic looks set to be directly up against Castagne for this clash, so it could be a tough game for the full back. Pulisic was fouled four times against Bosnia in the round of 32, and he looked back to his best after being hampered by injuries recently. The AC Milan winger is averaging 4.34 fouls drawn per 90 at this World Cup, Pulisic should see plenty of the ball here, bringing Castagne into the game.