Nottingham Forest v Man City Prediction, Premier League Odds & Team News

If you look at City’s shot numbers over the last few seasons, you realise just how reliant they are on Erling Haaland as a goal threat.

He’s had 16 shots on target in the Premier League this season (1.80 per 90), which accounts for 32% of the total shots on target that City have managed in the top flight and is at least 10 more than any other City player.

It’s almost a lottery trying to pick out another City player for a shot on target, or even a goal contribution, as outside of Haaland there isn’t really a consistent figure.

This bet is always live with Haaland, he can be really quiet in games and then quickly have two great chances and has had a shot on target in all four of his away games this season - managing multiple shots on target in two of these games.

The data says that Forest have been unlucky, but watching Oliver Glasner’s icy press conference last week would suggest that there are deeper issues behind the scenes. They’ve failed to win any of their last five matches, losing four of them.

Elliot Anderson is almost always a target for opposition sides to bring down due to how good he is at splitting lines with his passing range, and that should be even more exaggerated here as he lines up against his former club.

Anderson has won more fouls than any other player on the pitch here (28 - 3.61 per 90). He’s out on his own in that regard too, James McAtee is the second most fouled player set to line up at the City Ground and he has won 13 fewer fouls than Anderson in the Premier League this season.

This has landed in each of Anderson’s last five Premier League matches, and he was also fouled twice in the Champions League during the week against Leipzig.

He’s been fouled in all four of City’s away matches, winning 3+ fouls in three of these games - even being fouled 8 (!) times against Liverpool a few weeks ago.

Jair Cunha didn’t really feature much for Forest last season, but has earned a more consistent role in the side under Oliver Glasner as the right sided centre back in his 3-4-3 shape.

Cunha has committed eight fouls across his seven starts in the Premier League this term (1.15 per 90), which isn’t one of the standout figures in the Forest squad but a quick glance at his heat map would suggest that he will be in a lot of duels with Jeremy Doku here.

Alongside Anderson, Doku is one of the best players in the Premier League when it comes to dribbles and winning fouls.

He’s only started three games in the Premier League and has won 13 fouls (3.82 per 90), also maintaining an average of 3.08 fouls won per 90 across 19 starts in the top flight last season.

Oliver Glasner’s spell at Nottm Forest hasn’t quite gone to plan so far, but there aren’t many players that have benefitted more from the change of system than Neco Williams - who is perfect as one of Glasner’s wingbacks in a 3-4-3.

Williams can play on either side, but Glasner has used him on the left most of the time which is beneficial when backing him for shots as he can come inside on his stronger right foot.

Williams has taken 12 shots across his nine starts in the Premier League this season (1.34 per 90), and has notably had at least one shot in each of Forest’s last two home games against Coventry and Arsenal.

Williams also had a shot in this fixture last season, finding the target from distance despite playing in a deeper role in that game as a left back. He’s pretty consistent with shots too, only two Forest players had more attempts in the Premier League than Williams last season (1.29 per 90).