NFL

On Thursday, we saw the Dallas Cowboys trade their star defensive talent, Micah Parsons, to the Packers, in a move that saw Green Bay’s Super Bowl odds crumble, but there are still a couple of big prices available.

The Packers looked like a value bet heading into the season, but the arrival of Parsons instantly turns them into one of the favourites. Parsons almost singlehandedly turned the Cowboys into one of the league’s better defenses and will now do that with what was already a strong, but not elite, Packers D.

They have an excellent head coach in Matt LaFleur, and in Jordan Love, they have a QB ready to take the next step and become one of the very best in the NFL. The only thing stopping them has been the lack of a defensive stud and an alpha-wide receiver. Parsons fixed the defense, and the draft selection of Matthew Golden from Texas finally gives the Packers a true WR1 to add to what was already a strong set of pass catchers.

This team is ready to explode, so make sure you’re on them early.

The AFC West is arguably the most interesting division this year, with three of the four teams on the up, and the other being the Kansas City Chiefs. First, we need to talk about the Raiders. They were bottom of the division last year, finishing 4-13, but they’ve made big changes this time around. In comes head coach Pete Carroll, a Super Bowl winner with real experience and the perfect guy to help rebuild the culture of the organisation. They acquired Geno Smith to take over at quarterback, a player with both experience and talent, and who instantly improves them.

Then they drafted Ashton Jeanty, the running back who lit up college football last year. Those changes, as well as existing elite talent in Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby, and a strong offensive line, should help them run the table.

Elsewhere in the division, they have the Chiefs, who, let’s be honest, will win it. Then they have the Los Angeles Chargers, who have seen their offensive tackle Rashawn Slater sidelined for the season through injury. Make no mistake, that totally ruins their plans and will have a huge impact on the viability of that offense, so I see them struggling.

Then there’s the Denver Broncos, who have received a lot of love in the offseason, but who still lack elite talent on the team, even if they have a great head coach in Sean Payton. The Raiders are the outsiders, but with the changes that they’ve made, they’re a great bet to finish second to the Chiefs.

The Eagles are big favourites to win this opening game, and it’s for good reason. In both games against the Cowboys last season, they put up a combined 75 points and gave up just 13. Now, there are caveats to that, most notably that the Cowboys were missing their quarterback, Dak Prescott, but even with him returning to the field, this is a team in disarray. 

Last season, the Cowboys' offensive line was awful and didn’t protect Prescott enough, and the ground game also struggled. There’s been huge turnover at running back this offseason, but it’s not enough to really make a huge difference. Then there’s the fact that the Cowboys are now without Micah Parsons. They’ve lost the best defensive player in the NFL and will struggle to pressure an Eagles’ offence that has dominated on the line in recent years. The Eagles should win this with ease.

Since Hurts' arrival in Philadelphia, he’s been known more for his ability with his legs than his arm. He threw just 3,629 passing yards in 20 regular and postseason games last year, while managing to rush for 824 and score a staggering 19 touchdowns. 

However, we need to factor in that he’s now facing a defense that are missing the best pass rusher in the league in Parsons. They may have improved at defensive tackle with Kenny Clarke going the opposite way in that trade, but there’ll still be a huge decrease in the pressure that the defensive line can put on Hurts, so expect the Eagles to put some faith in his arm and let him air it out as the game begins.

This is very much a continuation of the above reasoning.  With no Parsons on the field, we have to expect that the Eagles will really look to prioritise the passing game. They may have an incredible running game, but attacking the Cowboys through the air will likely be the most productive way to beat them, as well as allowing Hurts and Saquon Barkley the most protection from injury.

While the Eagles were a run-first team last year, it’s worth noting that Hurts still threw two or more touchdown passes in eight of the 20 games that he played last season, including the Week 10 win over the Cowboys, with the quarterback rested when the teams met a second time.

Again, this is very much a bet on the Eagles being able to shred the Cowboys apart now that they’re without Parsons as edge rusher. It wasn’t Browns best season in 2024, missing four games, but he still showed that he’s a big-game player, scoring touchdowns in the NFC Championship Game and against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl itself.

He had over 71.5 receiving yards in nine of 17 games last season, despite it being a down year by his high standards. In his one game against the Cowboys with Hurts at quarterback, he exploded with five catches for 109 yards. Now imagine what he’ll be able to do with the Cowboys’ defence downgraded.

Just because the Eagles will use Hurts’ arm doesn’t mean that the Eagles’ offensive coordinator, Kevin Patullo, will forget about Saquon Barkley. Last season, Barkley showed why he’s the best running back in the NFL, leading he league in rushing yards with 2504 and scoring a total of 20 touchdowns.

He’s a game-breaking player and can be relied upon to carry the rock when the Eagles are in the red zone. Somehow, Barkley didn’t score a touchdown in either game against the Cowboys despite rushing for over 200 yards, something he’ll be looking to make right this time around.

I have never really been the biggest Calvin Ridley fan, but this year I’m finally on board in the perfect situation. He has been in the league for a sneakily long time, and despite not being a league-dominating alpha WR, he’s been consistently good in the WR1 role. This will be especially important for a rookie gunslinger like Cam Ward to depend on. 

Even with some inconsistent performances over the last two seasons, with some pretty rough play-callers manning the helm, he’s still posted back-to-back 1000-yard seasons without missing a game. This should be the most lively offense he’s played for in years, behind a new quarterback and coaching staff. 

Last year, they tailored his role a bit to the genius that is Will Levis, showing off more of his big-play ability. He led the league in air yards and ranked third in deep targets. While this sustained his fantasy production with deep plays, he missed a lot of the standard underneath WR1 production because Levis and the Titans just weren't successful in those shorter yardage situations. Now that he has someone who should be able to hit all quadrants of the field, we won't just need to rely on deep balls anymore. 

Ridley also posted a pretty awesome 121 targets last year, but only ended up bringing down 53% of those, thanks to Mr. Levis throwing those passes. He had more fantasy production left on the field than any WR in football last year, so it should be easy to improve on that, assuming Ward can be at least mediocre. Van Jefferson and Tyler Lockett are beyond dust, leaving him with minimal competition. The only person I have some hope for is day 3 rookie  Elic Ayomanor, who could be another good sleeper. 

Beyond the talent, there is nothing but opportunity in Tennessee. The rushing game will need to lean on Tony Pollard, and without Tajee Spears or a very stable offensive line, I have trouble believing they will be a very high-volume rushing team. Now, combine that with the fact that they are only projected to win 5 games, and I would expect plenty of trailing game scripts where they are forced to throw the ball even more than they might want to. 

Every place Cam Ward has been a quarterback, he has been a gunslinger. While the first time most people bet on him was in Miami, I’ve placed bets (technically DFS entries) on him dating back to the air raid offenses he operated for Incarnate Word and Washington State. He is comfortable throwing the ball a lot, and this is now the best receiver he's ever worked with. I expect Ridley to be peppered with Targets, and I think he overperforms expectations heavily for a career year next season.

While Jordan Mason props are more limited depending on your sportsbook, it’s one of my favorite options in the market. Different books have different options, but any rushing yards longshots up to 1000, or touchdown ladders up to 10 are firmly in play for Mason this season. 

Jordan Mason is my highest owned fantasy best ball player, sitting at around 28% over 50+ lineups drafted. There is a clear difference in the market between where I have him priced vs where most people are at, leaving a prime opportunity to strike.

The first reason is quite simple, the Vikings saw a clear hole in this offense and addressed it the second they had the opportunity to do so. They didn’t wait to see who was available in free agency or who would fall in the draft; they proactively went out and acquired Mason from the 49ers after a great stint replacing CMC before he dealt with injury last year.

Now, what void is he exactly filling? Well, Aaron Jones was one of the least efficient short-yardage backs in the league last year. MIN's -0.42 EPA per rush put them dead last in the NFL in the red zone. Aaron Jones ranked last among RBs in rush yards over expected, success rate, and EPA in the red zone, not numbers you want to see with your starting running back. Sure, he can handle passing downs, but Mason will be the clear short-yardage and redzone back. 

We have also always seen the best versions of Aaron Jones when he has someone to take some of the pressure off, like AJ Dillon. The age cliff is the killer for running backs, and as Aaron Jones gets older and older, it only makes sense to take more of the workload off his back. Last season, they only had Ty Chandler to do that, and I think Mason will have a huge impact on what they want to do. 

Sharp sites have the Vikings' offensive line projected as a top 7 unit, and JJ McCarthy's mobility will give opposing defenses someone to think about. You can’t really stack the box when facing Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson, meaning a guy like Jordan Mason, who was third in rush yards over expectation last year, should continue to be really efficient. I think he can get over both of these numbers with Aaron Jones healthy, but if he continues to miss games like he has in the past, then we have some extreme value here.