NFL

We’ve seen rookie Quinn Ewers start twice now for the Dolphins, and they’ve been very different games. First time out, he threw for 260 yards in the loss to the Bengals, then he only managed 172 yards in the win over the Bucs last week, so we really need to consider the game-script of this one.

The Patriots are favourites, and big ones at that, so we’re likely seeing the Dolphins play from behind, which should mean the former Texas man throwing the ball a lot. The Patriots defense are allowing 198.3 passing yards per game, but with the Dolphins chasing the team and Mike McDaniel coordinating, we should see Ewers given plenty of opportunity to pass.

The Patriots backfield scares me. TreVeyon Henderson is so clearly the best running back on the team, but they do still show Rhamondre Stevenson some love. Last week, Henderson carried the ball 19 times for 82 yards and looked electric against the Jets, but it was Stevenson who scored the touchdown.

I don’t believe that keeps happening, Henderson has too much pop and energy, he’s the best playmaker on the team and the data backs that up. Since Stevenson’s return from injury in Week 12, we’ve seen Henderson have more carries in the red zone, with 12 to Stevenson’s 13, as well as having the same amount of targets.

The Patriots come into this as 10.5-point favourites, but I’m not taking that spread. It’s one of those that they really should cover, but double digits in the final game week are always scary, with teams often looking to finish in style. However, I’m absolutely certain the Patriots win, given they know that a victory would seal them the first round bye, if the Broncos were to lose against the Chargers.

When these teams met in Week Two it was close, with the Patriots winning 33-27, but there is a big gulf in quality between the teams. The Pats’ defense actually ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL in DVOA, two spots below the Dolphins, and I don’t know if they’ll be able to do enough to keep the Dolphins at a 10.5 point gap, but I am confident in their ability to get the win.

It’s looking like the Eagles will rest Jalen Hurts and a number of their other starters against the Commanders, which would normally make me fade them, but on their home field, I still think they’ll have more than enough to cover the spread against a terrible Commanders team.

With Jayden Daniels shut down for the season and Marcus Mariota doubtful to play, it’ll mean another appearance for Josh Johnson, a player so far below being an NFL-calibre starting quarterback. I simply can’t back a Commanders team who have failed to cover in 71.4% of their road games.