Birmingham are a team rapidly on the decline. Despite a strong start for John Eustace at the start of the season which saw them just five points outside of the playoffs in mid-December, Bluenoses will now be looking over their shoulders. They still sit fairly comfortably in 18th and seven points off the drop zone but they have picked up just eight points in their last 10 games. Their run of five losses in a row was halted with a dramatic turnaround at Swansea on the weekend but it was a game that they can feel fortunate to win. Had Swansea not gone down to 10 men as a result of Joel Latibeaudiere’s injury and running out of substitution breaks, they would have been looking down the barrel of another loss. In their last 10, they have conceded 22 goals, keeping just one clean sheet in that time and at least two in eight of those. These results have not been undeserved either. In their last four, they have conceded 8.40 expected goals (2.10 per game) and across their last seven, they have been expected to concede at least one in six of those matches.

West Brom are one of the form sides in the league. After a very slow start which lost Steve Bruce his job, they are now flying and have picked up 30 points in their last 15 – the fourth most in the league. In the last ten, they have won eight and are behind only Burnley with their 24 points in that time. Leeds were rumoured to be interested in Carlos Corberan, but after he was given a new contract until 2027, Albion fans and players will both feel an extra boost coming into this one. They will also be seeking revenge. Birmingham won the reverse fixture 3-2 at the Hawthorns but that was a very different West Brom side that had Steve Bruce as manager. They were also fortunate as they lost the game 1.87-1.25 on expected goals.

Jed Wallace is West Brom’s second top scorer this season with four goals, only behind Brandon Thomas-Asante’s five. He has taken 62 shots in the league, 23 more than the next highest West Brom player – John Swift – with 39. He averages 2.29 shots per 90 with 0.85 of these being on target and both of these numbers are the most of any West Brom Players with 10+ league starts. He has had 10 shots in his last two matches and across his 30 starts, he has had at least two in 20 of them. In the return fixture against the Blues, he managed to find the back of the net and had two shots – both of which were on target.

Birmingham average 4.10 cards per game this season – a number which rises to 4.27 at home. There have been at least four cards in 53% of their matches at St Andrews and they have received at least three in 40% of those games. Blues players have drawn at least two in two thirds of their 15 matches here as well. The visitors have seen at least four cards in 48% of their matches, drawing at least two in 57% of their games on the road.

The referee for this one is James Linington who averages 4.11 cards per game in the Championship this season, showing at least four in 58% of them and in seven of his last 11. He has taken charge of one Birmingham game this season – a 3-0 victory over Bristol City here where the home side received three cards. He has also officiated two West Brom matches – their 1-1 draw at home to Burnley which saw five cards and their 2-1 win at Sunderland where two cards were shown – one to each team.