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Our experts are back again for the final day of the Championship season, spotting four smart picks for an EFL accumulator. This stands alongside our EFL predictions, our new both teams to score tips, and the rest of our expert football betting tips.
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⚖️ The Permutations
At the top, Ipswich need only a point at home to Huddersfield to confirm promotion to the Premier League for the first time since 2000. Leeds need to win at home to Southampton and hope that Ipswich lose against Huddersfield to leapfrog the Tractor Boys into second place.
In the play-offs, Southampton are secure in fourth regardless of results anywhere. Fifth-placed Norwich are three points clear of Hull, who are in seventh. A seven-goal swing is required if Norwich lose away at Birmingham and Hull defeat Plymouth at Home Park for Norwich to fall below Hull. However, West Brom are currently sixth, and they only need a point at home to Preston to keep Hull at bay, regardless of how the Tigers do at Plymouth.
At the bottom, Huddersfield are all but down. They would require a win at Ipswich and a 15-goal swing over Plymouth who would have to lose to Hull.
Birmingham are currently 22nd, and a win for them at home to Norwich gives them a real chance of leap-frogging any one of Plymouth, Sheffield Wednesday, or Blackburn Rovers. If any of those three lose and Birmingham win, the Blues are safe.
All of Plymouth, Wednesday, or Rovers are safe with a win. Wednesday travel to Sunderland, and Blackburn travel to champions Leicester. Sheff Wed and Blackburn are also guaranteed to be safe with a draw in their matches.
For Sheff Wed to be relegated, they would have to lose and Plymouth AND Birmingham would have to win. For Blackburn to be relegated, Plymouth and Birmingham have to win and Wednesday must get a point as well as Rovers losing at Leicester.
📊 The Data
The final day is also interesting for trends.
The two most recent seasons have seen a decline in the number of goals and goal-heavy matches. Therefore it is difficult to go heavily into the goals markets for this round of fixtures.
However, there is an intriguing angle surrounding cards. Last season all 12 Championship matches went under 2.5 cards, with only 3 matches seeing both teams receive cards. Twice in recent history, as many as five matches have seen no cards distributed at all.
Matches that have nothing riding on them at all are often a good pick for low card totals and although bookmakers are aware of the trend, it is often worth a small stake multiple on these matches and markets.
If one is searching for goals it pays to look at the matches in which there is at least one team playing for something on the final day.
Those matches have by far the highest goal average, and also almost 75% of the matches go over 2.5 goals, with a quarter of them going over 4.5 goals.
However, if you are hunting a high goal line, matches with nothing riding on them for either side are the way forward. 13% of those types of matches have gone over 5.5 goals since 2013.
Saturday’s EFL Accumulator Tips
Ipswich v Huddersfield
Portman Road could be hosting a promotion party after the conclusion of Ipswich v Huddersfield on Saturday afternoon.
There is another trend not mentioned above which is strong on the final day, which is that already relegated teams playing away from home have an awful record. Only Blackpool from last year have won any such match since 2013.
Huddersfield aren’t technically down yet, however, they are three points from safety, with a 15-goal swing required with Plymouth Argyle to save them.
Ipswich also need to get at least a point from this match to confirm their Premier League place for next season. Not only are they in good goalscoring form, having scored five in their last two matches but, if we concede that Huddersfield are practically down, then this match also falls into the scenario where a team who has something to play for is against a relegated side.
This has worked out in Ipswich’s potential favour five times in the six that have been played in this scenario since 2013.
Huddersfield’s recent away record has seen them be very draw-heavy. They have drawn four of their last six, but there have also been heavy defeats at Preston (4-1) and Southampton (5-3) in the mix.
Ipswich are 20 Championship home matches unbeaten, though the last two at Portman Road have been draws. They have won eight of their last ten xG battles and are running at a +1.0 xG supremacy per match, which means that they are creating chances worth a goal more than their visitors.
When combining this with Huddersfield’s 0.0 xG differential, Ipswich must be favoured on form, as well as motivation and data trends. Seven of Ipswich’s last 10 home matches have gone over 2.5 goals as well, including all of their six wins in that time.
Leicester v Blackburn
The King Power will be bouncing for Leicester v Blackburn as the Foxes were crowned champions in midweek.
They will be coronated in front of their own supporters on the final day against a Blackburn side who, as we have discovered, still have a real chance of falling into League One if they were to lose this match.
The trends since 2013 suggest that going away to an already-promoted team is not an easy task on the final day. This has happened seven times since 2013, and the already-promoted team has won six times from seven.
The exact scenario of a team fighting relegation travelling to an already promoted team has happened twice. The first time was also Leicester, who mercilessly defeated Doncaster 2-0, sending them down, and the last was Leeds who beat Charlton 4-0 to confirm their return to the third-tier.
The omens don’t look great for Rovers, and Leicester’s performance levels recently are no solace for Blackburn either. The Foxes are operating at a +0.8 xG differential over the last ten matches at the King Power, whereas Blackburn, despite eye-catching away wins at Sunderland and Leeds, are at -0.9 xG difference over their last ten away from home.
The reason that we are getting such a big price on Leicester to win is because of perceived motivation and need to win. There is no actual evidence in recent history that this scenario has helped the team battling relegation, making this a price worth taking.
Plymouth v Hull
Home Park is the venue for Plymouth v Hull, and this match falls within the trend of both teams needing something from the match.
Plymouth will need a win to ensure survival, and Hull need to win to try and snatch a play-off place. It may transpire during the afternoon that neither result is necessary, but this is the situation as play begins.
The final day trends suggest that it is this kind of scenario which is best for goals. The goal average of matches involving teams that need a result is around half a goal higher than the other scenarios.
Indeed, when both teams need something it is sometimes even better. Millwall and Blackburn shared seven goals when both chasing the play-offs last season, Derby and Sheffield Wednesday drew 3-3 two seasons prior when trying to avoid relegation.
Plymouth may have tightened up somewhat over the course of the season, but they have a top half attacking data profile, and a bottom three defensive one.
Hull have come into this match off the back of a 3-3 draw with Ipswich and a 3-2 win at Coventry. They had also gone over 2.5 goals in four of their previous five matches before those last two contests.
If one team goes ahead then the other will have no choice but to come out and attack to get a goal back, because, as it stands at kick-off at least, a draw is no good for either.
Sunderland v Sheffield Wednesday
The Stadium of Light is the venue for Sunderland v Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday afternoon.
We are aware that Sheffield Wednesday need a draw at Sunderland, who have nothing to play for.
It is difficult to get the exact trend for this type of match, but teams who play for something against teams who play for nothing do have 18 wins from 35 such scenarios, 49%. Adding draws into this knocks the total to just over 70% of matches in which the team who needs something – gets it.
We obviously have to take into account this specific match as well. Sheffield Wednesday’s form has been really strong of late, since Danny Röhl took charge they have the results that would have them as an upper-mid table side, better than Sunderland’s form over the same period.
Wednesday have won their last two away games, and four of their last six. Sunderland haven’t actually won a home match at the Stadium of Light in six, and that is not helping the atmosphere in the stadium either.
The momentum that the ownership generated at Sunderland, given their promotion and unlikely top six finish last season, has evaporated and fans are openly questioning the decision-making of the club.
It is easy to imagine Wednesday being able to go to the Stadium of Light, frustrate the home side and home crowd, and ultimately emerge with at least the point that will keep them in the Championship.
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Written by an Andy verified content writer