Kenneth Gainwell has seen a significant increase in snaps in recent weeks, taking 26 carries across two play-off games after 53 carries in 17 regular season games. The Eagles still use Miles Sanders as a lead back but have split carries more across their three man backfield rotation recently, who complement Jalen Hurts.

Gainwell’s rushing total opened at 14.5 on most bookies and has already climbed to 18.5. Back in October 2021, the last time these sides faced off, Gainwell had 31 yards on 3 attempts and a further 58 receiving as well. Gainwell allows opposing defences little opportunity to recognise a run play as he has been the quickest to the line of scrimmage in the NFL this season. For reference, a similar player, Samaje Perine is the 3rd quickest to the line and is a fellow back up. He had 22 yards on five carries against the Chiefs last week and 106 in the first matchup this season.

Closing the season out with 35 yards, Gainwell has then posted 112 and 48 in his previous two games. Lead running back Miles Sanders has seen his snap count decrease in seven straight games and with Gainwell in fine form he should cruise past this number.

Jalen Hurts broke the single season record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in the Conference Championship as he scored on a QB Sneak to take his season total to 15. The QB Sneak has been a guaranteed touchdown for the Eagles this season as Hurts has over a 90% conversion rate. Turns out it’s quite difficult to stop a man who can squat 600lbs in college when he’s got blockers pushing him too.

Despite missing two games, Jalen Hurts has the 3rd most rush attempts in the red zone this season (the final 20 yards of the field). A QB like Hurts can cash this leg in multiple ways due to his dynamic threat. His speed to the outside could exploit gaps left by man coverage and the QB sneak is a guarantee if they reach the 1 yard line. Look for a pass interference call in the endzone and we can celebrate.

Hurts has scored in both post season games and has 10 TD in his last 9 games, including 8 in his last 6. Expect the Eagles to use his rushing ability to a great extent particularly when the Chiefs allow the 31st most rushing yards to QB’s since week 8.

For a 7th round draft pick, it’s safe to say Isiah Pacheco has been a home run as a rookie for the Chiefs. KC drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2020 with the 32nd pick but due to injury and performance, Pacheco has been preferred due to his powerful running style. Fearful of no one, Pacheco embraces contact and appears to almost want to run someone over.

Pacheco was the first into the endzone in the AFC Championship but had his touchdown called back due to a holding penalty, a very dubious one. The Bengals allow 0.47 rushing TD to backs but the Eagles are in the top half of teams and allowed 0.74 per game. Furthermore, Pacheco demonstrated his ability as a receiving back in the last game with 59 receiving yards on five receptions. The Eagles now have to scheme for both him and McKinnon out the backfield rather than crowding the box. This should open up space for Pacheco up the centre to drive one home for us.

The Kansas City Chiefs have the best offence in the NFL in terms of points per game, averaging a league high 29.2 PPG. Traditionally, they turn Arrowhead into more of a defensive ball game allowing 4 points less per game. On the road, the Chiefs allow more points, but they also score far more with 32.8 PPG on the road this season.

This isn’t a one off season as well. In 2021, KC averaged 29.4 points per game and Mahomes’ talent can be unstoppable. The Eagles have a stud defence but have struggled against the most high power offences. Dallas and Detroit rank 4th and 5th for PPG this season and they posted 40 and 35 points against the Eagles this year.

For all their points and talent, the Chiefs strength isn’t at wide receiver after losing Tyreek Hill. Therefore, although Bradberry and Slay have been lockdown cornerbacks, the Chiefs have operated with limited wide receiver output all year. Against a defence that struggles against the run, Pacheco could power through, and it feels like that Mahomes, Kelce connection is inevitable. When Mahomes has been fit for full playoff games, these are the points posted by the Chiefs: 31, 31, 51, 35, 31, 38, 9, 42, 42, 24, 27, 23. Only once has he not dragged his team close to 25+.

The Kansas City Chiefs are against the best pass rush in the league and with tackles Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie allowing the highest pressure rates, Mahomes could be trapped in the pocket. Couple that with his ankle injury limiting his mobility and the Chiefs could look to use screens more often and have to use the checkdown.

This is where Isiah Pacheco comes back into the swing of things for us. The Eagles rank 1st in DVOA against WR1’s and 4th against WR2’s. Yes, Kelce will find separation in this game, but Mahomes will have few other options than Isiah Pacheco in terms of receivers. Pacheco has 59 yards on five receptions from six targets in the AFC Championship and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see similar numbers. He has cleared the 15 yards in six of his last nine and is only finding a greater role in the offence each week.