Tournament Introduction

364 days after the original start date, Euro 2020 (2021) is now upon us kicking off in Rome on Friday as Italy host Turkey in the tournament opener. This is the first ever competition that will take place in multiple ‘host’ countries which should bring about even more interest and intrigue with certain nations given more home advantage than others. For instance, both the final and the semi-finals will be played at Wembley which would offer England a huge advantage should they be able to get there.

Three home nations are participating with England, Wales and of course the return of the Tartan army after a 23 year wait since their last major tournament.  This is the first-time all three have qualified together for a major tournament since 1958 so lots to be excited about this summer! I’ve put together over 70 pages of useful research to help you all with your bets this summer which I hope should help you bag some winners. Whoever is crowned winner on July 11^th there is sure to be plenty of thrills and excitement so let’s make the next four weeks as much fun as possible. COME ON SCOTLAND! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

My Euro 2020 Favourites

Feel the bookmakers have got it pretty much spot on this year when it comes to pricing the favourites. The general consensus with the majority of bookies is that it’ll be between France and England to lift the Euros this summer with Belgium their most likely rivals as third favourites.

France

Despite being placed in the infamous Group of death, Les Bleus won’t be fazed and I expect them to top Group F with relative ease. Stacked with talent in every position, it is no surprise to see Deschamps and his men reach the final of the last two major competitions, reaching the final of Euro 2016 and of course going on to win the World Cup in 2018. The return to the international scene of Karim Benzema who is enjoying some of the best football of his career despite being aged 33 is a major boost for the French. Olivier Giroud is a very capable striker but the goalscoring prowess of Benzema adds an extra dimension to the French attack. For me the French will win the entire thing and priced at 5.5 in some places is actually reasonable value for a squad as talented as theirs. No team has ever won back to back World Cups and European Championships twice, but it’s extremely difficult to back against France to break the mould this summer.

England

Many bookmakers have England shorter than France and place the three lions as outright favourites to win the tournament this summer. I rate England’s squad, no doubt about it but they will likely have a tough route to the final and for me lack the winning mentality that the French have within their squad at international level. I am also far from convinced on Southgate and feel his pragmatic style of play at times stifles what is a ridiculously talented England squad from an attacking standpoint. I expect England will do well but pricing them as outright favourites is a little naive and although a final appearance is a distinct possibility I would back the French to get the better of them.

My Euro 2020 Dark Horses

A couple of teams stand out to me in this summer’s Euros who I expect will perform better than both the media and the bookmakers give them credit for. Everybody loves a dark horse and the Euros has a history of throwing up some unfancied winners including Denmark in 1992 and more recently Greece in 2004! With that in mind I have selected a couple of teams who I predict will defy expectations this summer.

Italy

Not fancied by many but Italy come into the Euros in exceptional form having won all 10 of their qualifiers and are now on a mammoth 26 game unbeaten run. Mancini has instilled belief back into this talented group of players and the Italians certainly aren’t short of winners and experience particularly in the backline. All their group games are to be played in Rome too which is a huge advantage and I expect they will quite comfortably top group A which should then pit them against the Dutch in the last 16, a tie I again think they should win. It’ll be far tougher from the quarter’s onwards as you would expect but the Italians certainly have the quality and knowhow to cause a few upsets and at 8.5 are a reasonable shout for a decent odds tip to win the tournament.

Denmark

30 years on since Denmark won the Euros in the most remarkable of circumstances the Danes will fancy their chances of causing another upset of sorts this summer. Back in 1992, the Danes had actually missed out on qualification having finished as runners-up to Yugoslavia, but they now found themselves thrown into the eight-team tournament and placed in a group featuring hosts Sweden, England and France. One month later they were champions in one of the biggest surprises in international football history to date. The Euros is now a 24 team competition and far harder to win than it was back in the 90’s but the Danes have a far more capable squad at their disposal than they did back then. They are likely to have a favourable route to at least the semi-finals should they finish runners up in Group B as expected behind Belgium. Turkey or the Swiss likely await in the last 16 and then potentially a very winnable fixture against the Austrians in the quarter-finals. Their squad is incredibly disciplined and has sparkles of exceptional attacking talent with the likes of Christian Eriksen sure to shine as he so often does for the Danes. They are priced between the 20-30/1 mark with most bookmakers and given their potential route to the semi-finals look a very reasonable shout as a dark horse to win the tournament!

My Euro 2020 No Value Picks

Now a couple of teams to avoid from me in terms of outright bets as I feel there is little to no value in backing them. The bookies have around eight teams priced around the 11.0 mark or below and these two teams fall in to that category but I just don’t have the sense they are really in contention this summer.

Germany

If you have read my preview on Germany then you will know full well my thoughts on Die Mannschaft this summer and I really feel they will struggle. Placed in the famous group of death they will do well to manage to finish in the top 2 of Group F above either France or Portugal and will likely have to settle for third place. They will then have to hope and pray they have done enough to be ranked amongst the best third placed finishers in a bid to qualify for the last 16. Not only do they have a very difficult pathway to the latter stages but the quality of the squad on paper is nothing like they have had at their disposal in recent years. Manager Joachim Low will move on after the tournament as I imagine many of the ageing playing staff will do too. Arsene Wenger has written of the Germans chances saying there is very little belief within the squad and teams rarely tend to do well when they know their manager is moving on after the tournament.

Spain

Alongside the Germans I am not expecting too much from the Spanish who similarly to the Germans appear to be in a period of transition following an exceptional era in their footballing history. The golden generation of Casillas, Ramos, Xavi, Iniesta, Fabregas, Villa and Torres have all gone now it is fair to suggest it is a relatively unknown squad selected by Luis Enrique. Given the lack of X-factor within the squad I really don’t view them as contenders to win the tournament. A run to the quarters/semis is feasible but beyond that I can’t see them pulling up too many trees. They are priced as fourth favourites by many bookmakers with a price of around 8.0 which seems far too short for my liking and I feel there is no value in backing them to win the Euros this summer.