We’re not going to win an award for out-of-the-box thinking with this bet, but you’d be brave to bet against Argentina. Anyone thinking they might take their foot of the gas and become complacent after winning the World Cup will need to think again. They are top of the CONMEBOL qualifiers with five wins in six matches.

Although they lost at home to Uruguay, they followed this up with a historic win, resulting in the first-ever defeat for Brazil in a World Cup qualifier at home. They’ve looked comfortable in recent friendlies and come into the tournament with a very settled squad and are absolutely stacked with talent in almost every position.

Their defence is rock solid and they have a fantastic blend of youth and experience with leaders across the pitch. Taking away the 2-0 defeat to Uruguay, they have five clean sheets in their other five qualifying matches. In fact they’ve kept a clean sheet in ten out of their 12 matches since the World Cup final. On top of that, they have Lionel Messi relaxed and enjoying life in Miami, coming into this tournament relatively fresh.

Assuming they win a straightforward group, they will have a kind draw leading up to the final, where they are still the superior team to anyone else CONMEBOL have to offer.

Going into any major tournament, there is always a team that is going somewhat under the radar that sits outside of the main pack. Colombia absolutely fit this description.

They are unbeaten in their six qualifiers and pulled off an impressive friendly win against Spain in London in March. They also beat Germany in a friendly back in June last year. They are on a 21-game unbeaten run, with their last defeat coming at the hands of Argentina.

The Colombians are quietly picking up results and although they don’t have the star power of past teams, they are all singing from the same hymn sheet and are capable of beating anyone in the tournament in a one-off game. They have a great chance of winning their group ahead of Brazil, which we don’t think is being factored into their price. We would be quite happy to take a chance on them at these odds.

Going further into the book, our eyes are drawn to Ecuador. The Ecuadorians disappointed in the last World Cup but have had a change in management since then, with Felix Sanchez. He has the highest points percentage of any manager in Ecuadorian history and has only lost to Argentina in their six qualifiers so far, conceding just 0.5 goals per game in the process.

Although there’s a question mark over their attacking prowess and where they might struggle for goals, their defence is rock solid and easily ranks as one of the best in the tournament. Piero Hincapie and Willian Pacho are coming off great seasons in Germany and Moises Caicedo offers dynamism from midfield.

In what we expect will be a low-scoring tournament, and given they have a fairly open group that they could win against a vulnerable Mexican side, they have a good chance of progression. It would take a huge effort to get past Argentina on their side of the draw, but stranger things have happened.