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West Brom v Middlesbrough Bet Builder @ 6.88

This looks overpriced to me. Without knowing exactly how Eric Ramsay is going to set up this West Brom team, it is tricky to lean too heavily on their previous form, and that goes for most of what we are going to discuss here, but I am going mention West Brom’s data with the idea that they will not completely change as an outfit overnight.

WBA have seen BTTS land in four of their last five matches. They also create 1.4 xG per match, and concede 1.1-1.2 xG per match so far this season, they score a little lower than that, but concede more than the figures suggest that they should. All of that evidence fits nicely into the idea that both sides could score here.

We can be more sure on how Middlesbrough and their head coach, Kim Hellberg, will approach the match. The funny thing with Boro is that they recently went four matches without scoring, but to me, that is just a noisy piece of variance. They continued to create chances during that time, they generated 6.8 xG in those matches alone, but were unable to convert. The last two matches have seen eight goals as well, whilst they have conceded in 13 of 15 away matches in all competitions this season.

With the usual caveats over new manager and their style apply here, I like the line on West Brom winning a decent number of corners here.

Eric Ramsay's Minnesota United were set piece and corner specialists. Therefore, although he will not have had much time to impart his coaching philosophies onto the group yet, it does suggest that West Brom's corner counts are not set for a decrease.

WBA have won 5.38 corners per match overall this season, but this jumps to a massive 6.8 when only considering their home matches. This is obviously well above the line required here, and their last four corner totals at home have been 9, 9, 8, and 7, and they have beaten this in eight of their last 10 at home.

Hackney has been really consistent in his shooting in recent months. He is averaging 2.57 shots per match this season.

He has hit at least two shots in his last nine Championship matches, which is the longest such streak in the Middlesbrough squad, longer than even Morgan Whittaker’s output. Indeed, Hackney’s shot totals only seem to be increasing, with four against Southampton, three against Derby, and four against Hull in his last three matches in the league.

With Aidan Morris back alongside him after an injury absence, it should also allow Hackney to be more confident in getting forwards and getting his shots away as well. 

A look at Hackney’s shot map also shows that he is happy to shoot from distance, too. 44 of his 65 shots this season have been taken from outside of the box, and he has also taken five direct free kicks in that sample, which also helps our case here.

It has taken some time for Campbell to settle in at West Brom, but having been bought as a central defender, his use on the right of a back four has probably taken him by surprise as much as it did the supporters.

His attacking output has improved as the season has gone on, and his recent shot count has really stood out to the extent that this price does look like good value for a single shot.

Again, we don’t know if Ramsay will continue to utilise Campbell in the same way that Ryan Mason did, but in some ways that doesn’t matter too much. Ramsay puts a lot of focus on set pieces, and Campbell could easily be one of the main targets for West Brom from them.

Indeed, a look at Campbell’s shot map from this season shows us that he has had seven shots from set pieces, six of which have been headers.

Campbell averages 0.82 shots per 90 this season in the Championship, which rises to 0.94 per 90 when only taking home games into the sample. However, his last four league matches read 2, 2, 3, and 1 for shot output.

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