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Aston Villa v Bayern Munich
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Kick Off: Wednesday 2nd October at 20:00
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Competition: Champions League
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Watch Live: TNT Sports 1
Aston Villa will host their first Champions League game on Wednesday, with Bayern Munich the visitors in a fittingly high-profile affair in Birmingham.
The Villans stutter into this match off the back of a 2-2 draw with Ipswich, yet having beaten Young Boys in matchday one, Unai Emery’s side have ensured there is not too much pressure on them here.
Bayern, meanwhile, might have drawn with Bayer Leverkusen at the weekend, but their performance was nonetheless an impressive one that sets them up well for this trip.
⭐ Aston Villa v Bayern Munich Best Bets
Tielemans has committed at least two fouls in each of his last four outings for Aston Villa as well as five of his last six.
The game in which he gave away only one foul was away to Leicester when he was walking a tightrope after being booked on 40 minutes.
Comes up against Jamal Musiala, who is being fouled 3.02 times per 90 in Bundesliga action.
Will be expected to put in a big shift and adrenaline of the occasion could see him make a misjudgement or two.
🔍 Aston Villa v Bayern Munich Players to Watch
🟣 Emi Martinez
Emi Martinez in the Aston Villa goal will expect a busy evening at Villa Park. Bayern average 7.71 shots on target per match this season, excluding the five penalties they have scored.
The Villans have allowed four or more shots on target in each of their last four outings, including five against Young Boys and Ipswich.
Martinez posts a surprisingly poor save percentage this season of 69.2% across all competitions, yet this will result in at least three saves if Bayern get anywhere close to their par for shots on target.
🔴 Serge Gnabry
Gnabry leads Bayern Munich in both shots per 90 and shots on target per 90 in the Bundesliga.
Has mustered at least one shot on target in four of his last six appearances for Vincent Kompany’s side.
Though he failed to hit the target against Leverkusen at the weekend, he did have two efforts on goal and posts overall accuracy of 46.7% this season, so would be unusual for him to be so wayward again.
Aston Villa’s starting right-back Matty Cash is doubtful so could be facing a weaker alternative.
🔴 Jamal Musiala
Musiala has drawn 13 Bundesliga fouls so far this season, putting him joint fourth in Germany’s top flight and top among Bayern players.
He has been fouled twice or more in six of the nine games he has played for club and country this term, including every match in which he has completed 90 minutes.
Will operate in the same area as Villa’s two leading foul makers: Amadou Onana (2.34 fouls per 90) and Youri Tielemans (1.88 fouls per 90).
📂 Aston Villa v Bayern Munich Cheat Sheet
We have plenty more action for this week’s Champions League besides this historic clash at Villa Park, and our signature football betting predictions are on hand to help. Make sure to check out our Champions League accumulator tips and Champions League bet builder tips to help you back a winner for the second week of the Champions League.
On top of that we also have a selection of both teams to score tips, along with player prop market predictions to fold into bet builders, like our card betting tips, player shots on target tips, fouls betting tips, and anytime goalscorer tips.
If you enjoy this newly revamped betting preview, be sure to check out our bet builder stats tool, the best freely available data source for punting on football, available for all Champions League fixtures this week.
💻 Aston Villa v Bayern Munich Form and Tactics
Aston Villa typically set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation but don’t typically play with traditional wingers, preferring busy all-action type widemen to support central forward Ollie Watkins.
Consequently, they rarely get crosses into the box, with left-back Lucas Digne an exception.
Instead, play is typically funnelled through Youri Tielemans, who is the midfield fulcrum averaging 69.7 passes per 90 in the Premier League, yet Morgan Rogers posts a club-high 21 shot-creating actions at an average of 3.68 per 90.
Villa have constantly generated between 1.2 and 2.1xG per game this season. Their 2-2 draw at Ipswich at the weekend was the first time they have fallen out of that bracket, generating just 0.2.
Watkins has been the net beneficiary, with 4.1xG followed by Jhon Duran at 2.2xG, with the Colombian becoming renowned as a super-sub after scoring five times off the bench.
Villa are also renowned for their innovate set-pieces, making them dangerous from offensive corners and free kicks.
Bayern are very much a front-foot team. They have had at least 66% possession in every game they have played this season and have generated at least 1.4xG in these fixtures.
While they are excellent going forward, they are also robust at the back. They have given up just 1.8npxG in the Bundesliga this season and limited defending German champions Bayer Leverkusen to just 0.1xG in a 1-1 weekend draw.
They are comfortable passing out of defence, with Joshua Kimmich the key pivot in the midfield.
FCB have an abundance of creativity in their side, particularly with summer signing Michael Olise settling in impressively. Unlike Villa, they will extensively use their wide players, with an array of excellent options here.
Offensively, they are dominated by the quartet of Harry Kane, Jamal Musiala, Serge Gnabry and Olise. They have combined for 77 shots this season, 20 of which have been goals.
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🏁 Aston Villa v Bayern Munich Ref Watch
- Averages 4.71 cards per game this season across seven fixtures. Shown five or more cards in five games and has only once gone below four cards.
- Has awarded two penalties in these games.
- Gave 65 fouls in the three Champions League matches he officiated last season, including qualifying.
- Notably more lenient in European football last season. Officiated five continental games and gave out 15 cards at an average of 3.0 per game (skewed by giving out seven in one fixture alone) compared to 4.11 elsewhere.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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