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Italy v Belgium Bet Builder Tips
Despite their shocking Euro’s performance which saw them scrape through the group stage before getting immediately knocked out by Switzerland, Italy are in a position to pretty much secure Nations League finals qualification having already beaten Israel and France.
They come up against a weaker Belgium side who could be there for the taking in the absence of star players, Amadou Onana, Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne.
You can also check out our Italy v Belgium betting preview for our expert’s favourite data-led selections.
4/1 Italy v Belgium Bet Builder Level 1
10/1 Italy v Belgium Bet Builder Level 2
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Level 1 Bet Builder Tip
🚩Over 2.5 Belgium Corners
📈 Odds: 1.30
Belgium have played two matches in the Nations League so far, accumulating seven corners in each. The most recent of the two was against France where they doubled the threshold despite only taking nine shots all game. It’s reassuring to know they don’t need to dominate the 90 to rack up the corners.
During the Euros, Belgium averaged 5.2 corners per game, accumulating at least five in each of their group stage matches.
Italy’s most recent clash was with Israel, a game in which they conceded three corners despite the inferior calibre of opposition. Belgium are likely to maintain significantly more possession in Italy’s half which should earn them at least three corners.
🛑 Nicolo Fagioli to Commit 1+ Fouls
📈 Odds: 1.44
Fagioli’s performances have been pretty mixed for Juventus this season, with some touting him as an integral part of Italy’s future midfield, and others going as far as to call for him to be dropped at times.
Nonetheless one constant has been his value in the fouls market with the defensive midfielder averaging 1.59 fouls per 90. He’s only started three matches this season but has found himself penalised at least once in each of them, as well as twice in his only two full 90s.
🩹 Davide Frattesi to be Fouled 1+ times
📈 Odds: 1.50
Although initially not included in Simone Inzaghi’s starting 11, Frattesi has since broken into the squad, starting three matches, all coming in Inter’s last four.
He drew at least one foul in each of them, in addition to the fouls he won previously coming off the bench against Atalanta and Genoa, despite only playing 37 minutes in the two combined.
Overall this season, he’s averaging 1.57 fouls won per 90 for Inter which is pretty much in line with the 1.54 he managed last season.
Frattesi drew two fouls against Israel last time out in his only full 90 in the Nations League, also drawing six fouls in just 184 minutes of football during the Euros.
🎯 Lois Openda 1+ Shots on Target
📈 Odds: 1.44
Openda is fantastic value for a shot on target.
The RB Leipzig forward is averaging an impressive 2.09 shots on target per 90 in the Bundesliga, the fourth-most of any player in the division. That includes at least one in all six of his games.
Looking beyond the Bundesliga, Openda also tested the keeper in both of Leipzig’s Champions League matches, despite coming up against two resilient defences in Atletico Madrid and Juventus.
He has played just over an hour in each of Belgium’s Nations League clashes so far, firing off one shot on target against France and two against Israel.
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Level 2 Bet Builder Tip
🚀 Davide Frattesi to have 2+ Shots
📈 Odds: 1.73
Frattesi is likely to start in a more advanced role for Italy on this occasion given the absence of Nicolo Barella, and with Luciano Spalletti’s emphasis on the link between midfield and attack.
He’s averaged 2.62 shots per 90 and has fired off eight across his last three Serie A starts. That’s actually a small step down from the 3.08 he averaged last season.
During the international break, Frattesi started both of Italy’s matches and rewarded Spalletti for his faith, taking four shots and scoring v France, as well as another two shots and scoring again v Israel.
🛑 Andrea Cambiaso to Commit 2+ Fouls
📈 Odds: 3.20
Cambiaso will no doubt be enjoying what looks like it could be his breakthrough season under Thiago Motta, and is predicted to be rewarded with a start on this occasion.
Cambiaso has sinned at least once in six of his seven Serie A matches this season, averaging 1.31 per 90 across the period. He slipped up twice in Juventus’ toughest game against Napoli, and could be in for a hard time once more v Belgium.
Jeremy Doku is likely to be his counterpart on Thursday which could spell trouble. Doku has averaged over 1.85 fouls won per 90 in each of his six league campaigns on record.
The winger has drawn three or more fouls in each of his last four matches for Belgium and will provide a real test for Cambiaso who has been priced generously here.
🏆 Italy to Win
📈 Odds: 1.83
The form seems to indicate Italy are the well merited favourites here and they deserve to be top of their group, having already beaten France and Israel.
Barella is their only notable absentee which is an important consideration, particularly given Belgium’s availability crisis.
Belgium were easily dismantled by France most recently, losing 2-0 in a game where they managed just nine shots and 0.56 xG. Belgium have now failed to exceed the 1 expected goal mark in three of their last four and may struggle against Italy’s defensive setup.
Italy have also won each of their last four competitive clashes with Belgium, who have struggled against some of Europe’s top teams in recent years.
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Here on Andy’s Bet Club, we provide all the expert football betting tips you could need throughout the season.
We haven’t slowed down during the international break either, with a range of Nations League betting predictions including our Nations League acca tips picking the value out of Thursday’s fixtures.
For further bet builder inspiration, you should check out our shots on target predictions and fouls betting tips.
It’s always worth browsing our collection of free bet offers too, which you can use when backing our expert tips on any of the best bet builder bookmakers and best UK betting sites. We also have free resources for the best Nations League free bets and weekly free bet clubs.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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