Real Madrid are perfect at home this season, winning six games from six at the Bernabeu, including five of these by a multiple-goal margin. On the other hand, Dortmund have not travelled well this season. From the four road trips they have had in the Bundesliga and Champions League, they have picked up only a victory against Club Brugge in Europe.

When facing the common opponent in the form of Stuttgart this season, Real Madrid eased to a 3-1 win at home against the Bundesliga side whereas Dortmund were hammered 5-1 away against the same rival. The recent Champions League final meeting went the way of Real Madrid by a 2-0 margin. This match four months ago will give the hosts added belief into this game and will make them an even more intimidating opponent to Dortmund.

The hosts need to chase victory in this game. Failure to win will leave them under pressure ahead of Milan and Liverpool fixtures.

Real Madrid have been prolific scorers at the Bernabeu this season. Indeed, they have netted at least two goals in each of their home matches, as well as at least three in three of their last four fixtures in front of their supporters.

While Los Blancos are scoring freely, they are not keeping clean sheets regularly. Carlo Ancelotti has watched his side conceded at least one goal in six of their last seven goals, while they have 1.1xGA in five of these fixtures.

Dortmund’s games this season have almost invariably been high-scoring affairs. Each of their last seven have produced at least three goals, with four of these topping four or more strikes. Of Dortmund’s nine fixtures this season since the Bundesliga season started, seven of these have produced an xG tally of over 2.5, with the scoreless draw against Werder Bremen in August, which yielded only 0.9xG, wildly out of sync with their other games.

No Real Madrid player has committed more fouls in La Liga this season than Vinicius Junior, who sits on 17 in Spain’s top-flight, giving away 1.87 fouls per 90 on average. He is giving away free-kicks at a steady rate this season and has committed at least one foul in 12 of the 13 games he has played for Carlo Ancelotti’s side. The exception was against Real Mallorca on the opening day of the league season.

Vinicius is currently on a run of committing one or more fouls in nine successive fixtures and gave away four against Celta Vigo in La Liga at the weekend. He gave away one foul in the Champions League final against Dortmund in June. Although he is likely to play in a wider role in this game, this is unlikely to impact his likeliness to give away a free kick.

Vinicius Junior has played second fiddle for much of this season to Kylian Mbappe but there have been signs in recent weeks that this is starting to change. Over the course of Real Madrid’s last three games, no player has had more than the Brazilian’s 11 shots, four of which have been on target.

He has at least one shot on target in eight of Real Madrid’s last ten fixtures, suggesting his price of 1.44 for this match is extremely generous. Known as something of a Champions League specialist. He has had shots on target in each of the two games he has played in the competitions this season. Only failed to have a shot on target in two of last term’s ten games.

When he last faced Dortmund on June 1 in last season’s final, he had three shots and one shot on target, which went in.

Ryersen has committed more fouls this season than any other Borussia Dortmund player in the Bundesliga, with the full-back picking up 13 so far this season. This works out at 2.06 per 90 minutes.

He has already committed multiple fouls in four of nine matches in Germany’s top-flight, and he has not faced an opponent nearly as prone to winning fouls as Vinicius Junior, who he is set to go head-to-head with. The Real Madrid winger is winning fouls at a rate of 2.64 per 90 in La Liga so far this season.

When these teams squared off in the Champions League final earlier this year Ryersen committed two fouls. He was not even directly up against Vinicius Junior in that game, with the Real Madrid star handed a more central role on that occasion.

Guirassy a player in hot form for both club and country this season. He has scored 12 goals in eight starts for Borussia Dortmund and Guinea. Scored the winning goal against St Pauli in a clutch situation at the weekend.

He has had at least one shot on target in every match he has played this season with the exception of a 2-1 loss to Union Berlin before the international break.

His volume of shots on target has also been highly impressive. He has managed at least two in six of his last seven for club and country, making that match in the German capital even more of an anomaly.

Dortmund are likely to carry a meaningful attacking threat in this game, with head coach Nuri Sahin should himself to be a coach who will ideally like to play on the front foot. Only once this season have BVB dipped below four shots on target for a single game, which was their 5-1 loss in Stuttgart. Even in that match, they still managed to post three efforts on goal.

Real Madrid are not the most defensively sound team. Against Stuttgart at home, they gave up seven shots on target while at the weekend against a relatively modest Celta Vigo outfit, they also gave up five efforts on target.

Los Blancos’ goalkeeper has made at least three saves in four of the last seven matches they have played, and arguably none of these have come against a team as strong as Dortmund. Expect the Spaniards to come under more pressure in this match.

Real Madrid have been a rather spikey team this season and that is liable to manifest itself in a clash against Dortmund that produces a significant number of yellow cards. Referee Istvan Kovacs averages 3.33 cards per game this season so will not need to go significantly above his normal levels to dish out four or more in this game.

Madrid have already collected nine cards in the competition to date, with that the joint second-highest number in the competition with fellow La Liga side Girona. Only Sturm Graz with 12 have more. Carlo Ancelotti’s side have attracted a high number of fouls so far in the competition, both in terms of the numbers they have won and conceded. This increases the likelihood of cards being shown.

There were four cards in the Champions League final last season, with three of these going to the German side and one to Real Madrid via Vini Jr.