Trincao has had a fantastic start to the season for Sporting and whilst he’s in part been utilised as a creative force, that hasn’t stopped him firing off an average of 4.03 shots per 90.

He’s fired off at least two in 10 out of his 11 games, and at least three in 9 of them.

Although he didn’t start, Portugal were dangerous when they clashed with Croatia last time around, taking 15 shots. It was the most Croatia have conceded in a single match during the competition and suggests the chances should come Portugal and Trincao’s way.

Portugal come into this affair well-merited favourites, having bosses the group, picking up four wins and a draw. Both teams are predicted to rotate quite significantly which will probably benefit Portugal, who boast much more depth than the home side.

Croatia’s form has taken a dive recently, and they’ll be disappointed to have dropped points to both Poland and Scotland in their last two matches, losing the latter. Portugal, on the other hand, will be confident having just battered Poland 5-1.

In the reverse fixture, Portugal were fairly comfortable in securing their 2-1 win over Croatia. They defended well and conceded only from an unfortunate Dalot own-goal, restricting their opponents to just 0.74xG, whilst they racked up 1.34xG.

Caleta-Car is predicted to start this affair which is fantastic news for us because he’s offered consistent value in the fouls market.

The centre-back has averaged 1.50 fouls per 90 in Ligue 1, sinning at least once in nine of his 10 games. Across all competitions, he’s fouled in each of his last six, including his last two games for Croatia.

He’ll come up against Kramaric who as you’ll see in the next selection, has a tendency to draw fouls making this an ideal matchup.

Kramaric is averaging 1.60 fouls drawn per 90 in the Bundesliga this season, drawing at least one in seven out of his nine appearances.

Across all competitions, he’s been brought down in five of his last six games, and in fourteen of his eighteen games (25+ minutes) throughout the entirety of the season.

He’ll clash with the aforementioned Caleta-Car who’s averaging 1.50 fouls per game this season.

Joao Felix has struggled for gametime this season and the bulk of his 605 minutes have come from the bench, but he’s predicted to get a chance to start against Croatia.

Despite that, across all competitions, he’s still averaging 1.79 shots on target per 90.

Croatia have conceded at least two shots on target in each of their matches although this figure has significantly risen in the tougher games. Last time they met Portugal, they allowed six shots on goal as did they when playing Poland away from home.

It’s been all Portugal so far but that’s not to say that Croatia won’t find themselves in good positions too, and Sucic seems generously priced to take at least two shots.

He’s averaging 2.41 shots per 90 in La Liga, mainly playing as a centre-mid. He’s predicted to start further forward for Croatia here, drastically increasing his shot-taking opportunities.

Even when occupying a comparatively more defensive role, this selection has been a winner in five of Sucic’s last six appearances lasting over an hour.

Croatia managed 13 shots when they clashed with Portugal last time round whilst the away side conceded 12 shots in each leg against Poland, implying their defence is far from impenetrable.

Croatia have averaged 5.6 shots on target per 90 during the Nations League, testing the keeper at least four times in all five games. They managed four in the reverse fixture in addition to finding the back of the net through a Dalot own-goal.

Portugal, despite their dominance, have conceded at least four shots on target in three of their five games with only Scotland failing to do so. To be clear, that doesn’t necessarily imply that Portugal impressed in the two outstanding legs – Scotland haven’t once managed over three shots on goal.

Portugal are averaging 3.0 cards per game in the Nations League, having picked up four in each of their last four games.

Including matches across the Euros and the Nations League to utilise a wider sample, this selection has been a winner in seven of their most recent ten games.

The referee should certainly benefit this selection with Davide Massa in charge of the occasion. The Italian referee averages 27.75 fouls per 90 and 4.58 yellow cards per game.