Arsenal come into this clash firm favourites having seemingly regained confidence in their 5-1 thrashing of Crystal Palace.

Across all competitions, the Gunners have already won 13 games by a 2+ goal margin, and given Ipswich’s struggles this season, backing them to win comfortably is a sensible choice.

Ipswich sit 19th in terms of points and expected points. Most recently they were thrashed 4-0 by Newcastle which represented their 4th loss in their most recent 5.

Although Trossard averages only 0.78 shots on target per 90 minutes, this doesn’t account for the various positions he’s had to uptake over the course of the season, including most notably a role in central midfield to make up for Odeagards absence.

He’s expected to keep his position on the left wing while Martinelli will move onto the right which bodes well for this selection goven the Belgian has tested the keeper in each of his last 3 starts, all of which were from the left of attack.

Ipswich are averaging 5.46 shots on target conceded per game to date with this figure increasing to 6 or more in each of their last 3.

Thomas Partey has averaged 1.72 fouls drawn per 90 minutes this season across a variety of positions. On this occasion, he’s predicted to start in centre-mid which means he should come under more pressure compared to when he fiis in as a right-back.

Partey has sinned at least once in 12 of his 14 league starts to date, including each of his last 7.

Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, Ipswich have averaged 12.18 fouls drawn per 90 which is more than Arsenal, and in fact most teams in the league.

Ipswich have been guilty of receiving 2 or more cards in 14 of their 17 games to date, averaging 2.53 per game over the course of the season – the third most in the league.

This selection has been a winner in each of their last 5 and 8 of their most recent 9.

Arsenal have drawn an average of 2.88 yellow cards per game this season in the Premier League, which indicates further value in this selection. This average has risen to 3.11 when assessing their last 9 games with their opponents picking up at least 2 cards in all 9.

In backing this selection, we’re ultimately relying on Arsenal to keep a clean sheet, which seems like a realistic expectation given the difference in quality between the sides.

Arsenal have the best defensive record in the league, having conceded just 16 goals – the same number as Liverpool but having played an additional game. They recently limited both Fulham and Everton to under 0.15xG and will have their first-choice backline all starting for the first time in a while following Calafiori’s recovery, in addition to Declan Rice who will offer protective cover.

Ipswich have found the back of the net just 16 times this season, failing to do so in 3 of their last 5 despite facing comparatively easy opposition. Their setup is likely to entail ditting back and aiming to block Arsenal out for as long as they can, rather than pushing high up at the other end.

Jesus arrives for this fixture off the back of a run of great form which has seen him bag 5 goals in his last 2 games, both of which against Crystal Palace.

He’s tested the keeper at least twice in each of his last 3 starts, accumulating 11 shots on goal over the period despite coming off early in 2 of those games.

With Ipswich averaging 5.46 shots on target conceded per game including at least 6 in each of their last 3, Jesus should receive plenty of opportunities to fire off shots at goal from the centre of attack.

Odegaard has been fouled at least once in 9 of his 10 league games this season, drawing 2 most recently against Crystal Palace.

He seems to thrive against oppositions who operate a low-mid block – a system Ipswich will almost certainly operate with, given his quick feet and tidy passes.

Given Morsy’s suspension, Ipswich’s double-pivot will likely consist of Kalvin Phillips ( 2.53 fouls per 90) and Jens-Lys Cajuste (1.47 fouls per 90) which indicates Odegaard stands a strong chance of winning at least a solitary foul.

Although Martinelli hasn’t enjoyed the easiest of seasons, his 6 league goal contributions aren’t to be overlooked, given the Brazillian has been competing with Trossard for gametime.

In fact, Martinelli has averaged 0.57 goals/ assists per 90 minutes and 0.52 expected goals/assists per 90 this season, both of which are second only to Saka, considering only regular starters.

Ipswich have conceded 32 goals this season from a ridiculous 40.84xGa and if Arsenal are able to put a few past Muric, it’d be a surprise if Martinelli isn’t among the beneficiaries.