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Millwall v Dagenham & Redbridge
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Kick Off: Monday 13th January at 19:30
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Competition: FA Cup
For only the 3rd time, Millwall and Dagenham & Redbridge will play one another. The other 2 occasions have also been FA Cup ties, then in 2012, and the same shall occur on Monday. Understandably, Millwall from the Championship are deemed heavy favourites to progress to the 4th Round.
However, a run of only 1 win in 11 for the home side could see some nerves creep into the game, which would increase chances for their non-league opponents to cause an almighty shock.
The visitors find themselves mid-table in the National League, suggesting this cup run has possibly had a negative impact on league results.
⭐ Millwall v Dagenham & Redbridge Best Bet
This is likely to be a step too far for Dag & Red. They’ve exceeded all expectations reaching this stage of the competition but Millwall should make their class count. After all, they are 3 leagues higher and given they’ve experienced a recent managerial change, it is in the best interests of the team to really perform here.
A shock, of course, could happen, but it is worth noting the National League side have won only 2 away league clashes all season. On that basis, can they really be expected to turn over a Championship team on the road? Surely not.
Millwall have won 8 matches in all competitions this season. 7 of those have seen them keep a clean sheet, and clearly against much stronger opposition than who they’re about to face. This match is all about mentality and playing the last match of this round may help. This is because they’ll have seen cup shocks over the weekend that should put them right to be at their best here.
👕 Millwall v Dagenham & Redbridge Predicted XI
🔍 Millwall v Dagenham & Redbridge Players to Watch
🔵 Macaulay Langstaff
The expectation is for Millwall to rotate their starting 11 for this game and that should open the door for the likes of Macaulay Longstaff to earn a recall. It would make sense for Alex Neil to do so given his striker is without a goal since September, and this is a realistic contest to try and change that. He will be desperate to play, whereas some normal starters perhaps won’t be too excited by the prospect of this kind of match.
Another good reason to get the soon-to-be 28-year-old on side is that he is proven against this type of opposition. It was on the basis of his superb record at previous club Notts County that earned him his big move to the Championship.
Only 2 years ago in the National League, Langstaff fired in 42 goals. He then backed this up in League Two with a further 28 goals. He gets the lower leagues and the Dag & Red defence won’t be relishing facing him.
📂 Millwall v Dagenham & Redbridge Cheat Sheet
Cheat Sheet pending…
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💻 Millwall v Dagenham & Redbridge Form and Tactics
This match will be Millwall’s 3rd since Alex Neil took over as manager. Over the first 2 encounters they lost at home to Oxford and drew away at Sheffield Wednesday. It is 1 win and 1 loss in regards to beating the xG on the day – averaging 1.75. The club from The Den have averaged 49.2% possession in this period, too. Also, Neil’s men produced more fouls than each of their opponents, suggesting more of a combative approach moving forward.
Millwall will be expected to see more of the ball in this contest given they are at home to a team from 3 leagues below. However, they are ranked bottom in the Championship for average accurate passes per match, suggesting they may not find this so straightforward. The team is also positioned 22nd out of 24 for average accurate long passes, meaning any type of pass they make statistically isn’t likely to come off.
Dagenham & Redbridge enter this clash after winning the xG count in each of their previous 3 games, despite winning only 1 of those (D1, L1). They’ll therefore believe in their ability to create chances. The team are actually ranked 5th in their league based on Expected Goals. In this recent period they would also average 13.67 shots per match. 31.71% of these would be on target.
Ben Strevens’ side will have to be at their absolute best to get anything from this match. That certainly applies defensively. In league action, Dag & Red have conceded an average of just under 10.00 shots per game; the 8th most in their division. They are positioned 9th in the National League for most fouls per match (10.11 average), so that is clearly one method they use to try and slow down opposition momentum.
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🏁 Millwall v Dagenham & Redbridge Ref Watch
- Referee: Robert Madley
- This will be the 18th match Madley has officiated this season. So far, he has awarded an average of 3.71 cards per match. This is a downgrade on last season at the moment, when his average was 4.70 cards.
- The 39-year-old has issued a total of 4 penalties across the campaign, meaning he is averaging a spot-kick awarded once in every 4.25 games.
- Madley, who refereed the League Two Play-Off Final in 2021, is taking charge of a Dag & Red game for the 1st time. However, he has overseen 5 Millwall matches in the past and over those has sent off 2 of their players.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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