Of Inter’s 7 Champions League matches this term, just 9 goals have been scored, with Inter remarkably conceding only 1 goal so far. Additionally, 6 of the 7 matches have produced 1 goal or fewer. In fact, this selection has been a winner in 17 of their last 18 matches in the competition and 38 of their most recent 42.

Monaco’s games this season have been similarly low scoring, with 29 of their 39 clashes across all competitions producing under 3.5 goals. Their league games have averaged 2.95 per match, allowing some leeway here.

Bastoni has been one of Europe’s most consistent foulers, sinning in almost every game. In the league, he’s committed at least 1 foul in 17 of his 19 starts, averaging 1.59 per 90 in the competition.

He’s maintained this form in the Champions League, slipping up in 4 of his 5 starts and totalling 7 fouls.

Bastoni is likely to have it harder than anyone else on the pitch, given he’ll be facing off with Embolo and Akliouche, who’re averaging 2.06 and 1.60 fouls drawn per 90 minutes.

Akliouche boasts an impressive average of 1.60 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season.

He’s been fouled at least once in each of his last 11 appearances spanning over 65 minutes. The young winger has started all 7 of his side’s Champions League clashes and has drawn at least 1 foul in 6 of them, only failing to do so as Monaco put 5 past Red Star Belgrade.

Either Bastoni or Dimarco will be tasked with picking him up, depending on the phase of play. The aforementioned prior averaged 1.59 fouls per game and could well be the key to this selection coming home.

Inter come into this clash as well-merited favourites and we think they represent strong value to claim all 3 points at home. They’ve won 20 of their last 25 matches across all competitions and have only dropped points to Bayer Leverkusen and Man City in the Champions League so far.

With 16 points, they’ve likely already guaranteed themselves a place in the round of 16, but could benefit from a better draw with a win here, making this game equally important as those previous.

Monaco have not endured a successful a start to 2025, recording just 2 wins from a possible 6 since the new year. Back-to-back losses to Arsenal and Benfica appear to have put automatic qualification beyond reach, although a win at the San Siro would likely change that fate. Our expectation is to see them outclassed in Italy by one of the favourites to win the competition.

Dumfries offers a different profile to Inzaghi, with his bombing runs down the wing useful in breaking down the opposition and dragging defenders out of position.

He’s averaged 1.88 shots per 90 in Serie A and has fired off at least 2 in 13 of his last 16 matches across all competitions (65+ minutes). This selection has also been a winner in 3 of his 5 UCL starts, including clashes against Arsenal and RB Leipzig.

Monaco have averaged 9.5 shots conceded per game in Ligue 1, and they’ve allowed their opposition to take at least 10 shots in each of their last 6 across in competitions, averaging 14 shots against per game over this period.

Asllani looks to have been massively overpriced to draw 2 or more fouls on this occasion, with his average of 2.22 fouls won per 90 promising significant value.

This selection has been a winner in 9 of Asllani’s 13 starts to date, including 4 of the last 5. Across the 13, he’s drawn at least 1 foul in 12, despite the struggle for game time which has seen him frequently come off early – Super Sub comes in handy for us here.

He’s set to combat an incredibly aggressive Monaco midfield trio featuring Camara, Magassa, and Ben Seghir, who average 2.15, 2.25, and 1.36 fouls committed per 90 minutes respectively.

Golovin has been another constant in the fouls-drawn market, averaging 1.53 won per 90 minutes in Ligue 1, despite being shifted around positionally.

He’s drawn at least 1 foul in 11 of his 16 appearances (60+ minutes) across all competitions, although this number is distorted by early substitutions. Across the 10 games in which he lasted the full 90, this selection has been a winner in 8.

He’s set to have a particularly tough time on Wednesday given the nature of his opponent, Dumfries. The Dutch wingback has averaged a remarkable 2.45 fouls committed per 90 – the most of any Inter starter.

Embolo is our final pick, once more in the fouls-drawn market which seems to have been significantly overpriced across the board. He’s maintained an average of 2.06 won per 90 across all competitions.

He’s made 23 appearances lasting 60+ minutes to date, with this selection coming in on 19 of those occasions – a success rate of 83%. Equally significantly, he’s hit this threshold in each of his last 3 starts. In the Champions League, he’s won 1 or more fouls in all 7 and 2 or more fouls in 4 of his 6 appearances lasting over 45 minutes.

Bastoni and Pavard represent the two Inter defenders likely to aid this leg, as evidenced by their averages of 1.55 and 1.26 fouls per 90 respectively.