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Millwall v Stoke

Millwall host Stoke City at The Den on Saturday lunchtime, in a game which would normally mean a bit more to the away side fighting relegation, than the home side in a comfortable mid table position.

However, we have the added spice of Alex Neil up against his former side, who will surely want to get one over the Potters.

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⭐ Millwall v Stoke Best Bet

➡️ The Draw @ 3.24 on bet365
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Alex Neil has managed six home league games since his appointment at the end of December, with a record of W1 D2 L3. Thankfully for Neil, their away form has been much better, to get him off to a good start as the Lions boss. Draws aside, the four home games which have seen a result have been decided by a one-goal margin. Millwall have failed to create chances amounting to 1 xG or more in any home game since Neil came in.

Mark Robins was appointed at Stoke two days after Neil, on New Year’s Day. They have played seven away games in that time, with a record of W1 D2 L4. There has been an uptick over the last three games, with Stoke winning the xG battle in each of them, but only having four points to show for it.

The opposite is true of Millwall, who have lost the xG battle in their last three but only have one less point than Stoke from them.

We think this will be a pretty even game, and with neither side making a convincing case to back as winners, the draw makes most appeal.

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👕 Millwall v Stoke Predicted XI

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🔍 Millwall v Stoke Players to Watch

🔴 Lewis Baker

Lewis Baker spent the first half of the season on loan at Blackburn, but returned to Stoke in January and has started seven games since, with one appearance as a substitute.

He has attempted at least one shot in all eight appearances, and a total of 12 shots. He has tested the keeper in four of those appearances, so his shot on target per appearance ratio for Stoke this season is 50%. 

Paddy Power have priced him up at 2.10, so there is a smidgen of value in his price for us based on the above ratio. 

Milwall concede on average three shots on target per game under Neil, whilst Stoke average the same number for Robins.

We’ve no doubt Baker will take aim at some point, so let’s hope his radar is on point.

➡️ Lewis Baker to have 1+ Shots on Target @ 3.0 on bet365 ↔️
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[This will be covered by bet365 Sub On Play On.]

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🔴 Jordan Thompson

A few weeks ago, Stoke boss Mark Robins bemoaned the lack of tackling and tactical fouls from his team as a big reason for their plight. That was remedied for a short lived period as Ben Pearson returned from injury, only to pick up another injury.

Step forward the return to midfield of Jordan Thompson, who had started the campaign in the team but barely featured between November and February.

Thompson certainly brings bite to midfield, having committed two, three and three fouls in his last three appearances. He averages 0.56 cards per 90.

It was a toss up between 2+ fouls at 3.20 or to be shown a card at 4.33. At the prices, we think the card is the bet, given he has achieved each feat four times when playing more than 45 minutes in a game.

➡️ Jordan Thompson to be Booked @ 4.33 on bet365 ↔️
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📂 Millwall v Stoke Cheat Sheet

Andy’s Bet Club is the best place for Football Betting Predictions. We offer a huge range of EFL Bet Builder Tips covering a full range of punting plans.

We’ve also got European Football Acca Tips and an Eerste Divisie Goals Acca in-store for Friday’s action. You can find all of Andy’s Football Tips here.

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💻 Millwall v Stoke Form and Tactics

Regardless of who the manager is, you can pretty much guess what Millwall’s style of play will be. Direct football, crosses into the box, solid defensively and battlers in midfield. They’re strong from set pieces, with the highest xG and the most set piece shots in the division.

Recent form has been a mixed bag, with two wins, two draws and two losses from their last six.

Stoke have been a soft touch this season, with the 2nd-highest xG against clearly showing where their problems are. Thankfully they have a good goalkeeper in Viktor Johansson, who OPTA stats show has prevented a huge 14 goals this season, more than any other keeper in the Championship.

Stoke battled to a 1-0 win against Blackburn in midweek, which is just reward for recent performances. They have lost their last three away from home though, so will be hoping for their improved displays to continue on the road.

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🏁 Millwall v Stoke Ref Watch

• Referee – Andy Davies

Average Cards (Y / R)	3.27 / 0.00
Fouls Given	20.33
Penalties	0.13

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Football Predictions at Andy’s Bet Club

Our guide on How To Use A Cheat Sheet is the perfect way to get involved with our Bet Builder Stats tool, the best freely available data source for punting on the Championship.

Saturday’s slate will be covered with an EFL Accumulator, Early Kick-Off Predictions, Shots Tips, Fouls Predictions and Cards Accumulator Tips.

We recommend the Best Betting Sites For Accumulators, Top Bet Builder Sites, the best Premier League Free Bets, and Weekly Free Bet Clubs, all to ensure you bet smarter when backing our tips with the Best UK Sports Betting Sites.

Expert guides, such as this one on xG In Football, are also available to help you up your punting game.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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