RKC Waalwijk v FC Twente

Last weekend, RKC only had 27% possession in their plucky draw away at NEC. At home, Joseph Oosting’s side have the lowest average possession stat in the Eredivisie. They continue to play five defenders and rely on Jens Odgaard and Michiel Kramer to provide the quality in attack.

It does often leave them isolated though. I maintain that Waalwijk are a steady side but they have limitations when it comes to raising their game for stronger opponents. In addition to this, they have shown themselves to be stronger away from home this campaign, so I don’t foresee RKC controlling the game.
As for Twente, they created plenty of chances against Go Ahead Eagles last time out, but due to two sucker-punch goals, they could only draw 2-2.

Therefore, I foresee a similar pattern of play here, with Waalwijk hoping for more defensive mistakes from Twente as the majority of chance creation will be from the visitors on Friday. Therefore, I would back Twente to come away with a positive result as they continue their fine season where they look likely to finish fifth (in the Europa Conference League play-offs) but they will still be hoping for more.

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Heracles Almelo v PEC Zwolle

Heracles’ form continues to be patchy. On the whole, they look a good-enough team to avoid relegation. Frank Wormuth is a good manager (hence his upwards step to become Groningen manager next season). Last time out they were defeated by AZ, which is no disgrace, and I thought in the first half they showed some good quality for a side battling relegation.

Some might look at this game and straight away think that Heracles will win because they are at home to the bottom club, but anyone who has watched PEC Zwolle recently knows they are pulling out some good results on a consistent basis; an impressive turnaround considering how low the club felt around November. PEC are unbeaten in five Eredivisie games in 2022 and they have scored in each of those.

So this is a tough game to call. If the Eredivisie were based on home games alone, Heracles would be seventh – you can see how their astroturf pitch benefits their players. I think this will be a draw or a narrow home victory with both teams to score a decent bet.

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FC Groningen v Willem II

Groningen manager Danny Buijs said that by playing some younger players at the moment, they will make mistakes. That will explain their inconsistent form. They were winning at Zwolle in their previous game but couldn’t see out the win, conceding a last equaliser.

Predicting under 3.5 goals in Groningen games would have won you six out of the last seven bets. Buijs seems to have finally got his players to be more solid defensively, albeit at the expense of some excitement in attack. I can see Jorgen Strand Larsen being a threat against the Tilburgers though with balls over the top causing problems.

Meanwhile, Willem II broke their long losing streak with a convincing home win over RKC, then went back to square one in an uninspiring defeat away to Sparta, followed by a hard-working narrow defeat to Ajax in front of their fans. Maybe it’s part of being the home team? Unfortunately, they are away in this one, and I can see Groningen dominating the game against a side who have not kept a clean sheet in twenty matches in all competitions. There are good odds if you back the home win.

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Cambuur v Fortuna Sittard

Cambuur’s winless run extended to eight games last weekend. After the loss to Feyenoord, Cambuur’s assistant head coach thought that his side weren’t too far away from claiming a result given the chances they created. That sounds like Cambuur: always making opportunities but then conceding too many because of their willingness to attack.

Fortuna had their last match postponed due to the inclement weather western Europe has had, so it is tricky to judge how the last two weeks of no game will have impacted them in their fight for survival. Because of Willem II’s defeat last weekend and the game in hand, Fortuna could be out of the bottom three with a win over Sparta when the match is re-arranged – a massive confidence boost.

This remains a tough fixture for them, travelling to ninth-placed Cambuur who will be a dangerous team to play considering Fortuna’s defensive frailties. Looking at Fortuna’s recent results, you could suggest that whenever they’ve played a team who is cautious, they have picked up wins (such as Groningen, Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle), but against sides who are more open, the Sittard side have taken part in a good game but struggled for wins (for instance, AZ, Utrecht and Heracles). So backing over 2.5 goals would be my pick, and it’s time for Cambuur to finally claim a win.

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