Estoril Praia v Belenenses-SAD

Anyone who’s a fan of boxing will have come across a certain type of fighter – a “granite chin.” They may not be the most physically imposing boxer, and their punches may not always land where they’re supposed to, but they know how to take a punch and keep going. No matter what, they refuse to quit – giving up just isn’t an option for them.

Belenenses-SAD are the most hated team in the league, they have one of the smallest fan bases in the entire country, let alone the Primeira, and they have been through three managers this season. They have spent nearly every second of the 2021/22 season in the relegation zone, and this week, it was reported that the club were banned from registering new players and renewing players’ contracts after failing to pay Os Beleneneses nearly €31,000 for the solidarity payment of Nilton Varela. And yet, they have picked up two victories since the start of April, beating Vizela and Portimonense. Their sole defeat since the start of March came in a 3-1 loss to Benfica. They’ve taken blow after blow, they’ve been knocked down to the ground time after time, and yet, they pick themselves up every single time.

Over the past six matchdays, B-SAD have taken nine points, making them the seventh-best team in the league; Estoril Praia, on the other hand, have taken just five points, making them the 14th-best. However, whilst Estoril have sealed their status in the Primeira, B-SAD remain rooted to the bottom of the league, albeit just two points away from the relegation play-off spot and three points away from safety. Bruno Pinheiro’s side snapped a three-game losing streak by taking advantage of Braga’s European hangover and drawing 0-0 in Cascais, but they have not won since March 12. Estoril beat Beleneneses-SAD 1-0 in December, but in general, their record against relegation-threatened sides has left plenty to be desired: since that win, they have lost to Moreirense, Arouca, and Vizela whilst also beating Tondela.

Since losing 4-1 to Moreirense on February 7, Belenenses-SAD have had just one game with under 2.5 goals scored – a 3-1 defeat to Benfica on April 9. I’m expecting this game to follow the pattern, as an Estoril side with nothing left to play for welcomes B-SAD to the Estadio António Coimbra da Mota.

---

Tondela v Vitória de Guimarães

On March 3, Tondela thrashed second-tier side Mafra 3-0 in the first leg of the Taça de Portugal semifinals, their first victory since beating 10-man Portimonense on January 30. They would have to wait another month before picking up their next win, a 3-1 win against Marítimo on April 3, followed by a 3-1 loss to Sporting and a 2-0 defeat to Moreirense. By the time the second leg rolled around on Wednesday, Pako Ayestarán was no longer the coach, but Nuno Campos.

Campos spent several years as Paulo Fonseca’s assistant coach before taking up his first managerial job at Santa Clara on October 11. He would last just nine games before being sacked; Santa Clara have since gone from battling relegation to a comfortable midtable position under new manager Mário Silva.

Tondela found themselves under serious pressure against a Mafra side that opened the scoring on the brink of halftime, maintained 69% possession and 19 shots in comparison to Tondela’s 7. It wasn’t enough to secure progression, however, as the Auriverdes progressed to their first Taça de Portugal Final in the club’s 89-year history, where they will take on Porto in Jamor on May 22.

Prior to doing so, Tondela have four ‘finals’ to play: Vitória de Guimarães, Paços de Ferreira, Gil Vicente, and Boavista. These four finals will not result in any silverware, but they will be the difference between extending a 7-year stay in the Primeira or playing league matches against Mafra and Farense next season.

Tondela will be without starting left wing-back Neto Borges and starting center back Manu Hernando, whilst Neto’s natural replacement ​​Naoufel Khacef is out due to injury. They will be taking on a Vitória side that has lost just two games since the start of March – Sporting and Porto – and won the other four matches, keeping three clean sheets in the process. The last meeting between the two sides saw Vitória win 5-2 in December, and after thrashing Paços 4-0 at the weekend, they’ll be looking to continue their impressive run of form. Expect Pepa to get a win against Tondela – where he preivously worked as an assistant as well as a head coach – as Vitória look to push Gil Vicente for fifth place and European qualification.

---

Braga v Porto

Porto are through to the Taça de Portugal Final, where they will face 17th-placed Tondela, whilst they are inches away from claiming the league title. They followed up a 7-0 thrashing of Portimonense with a comfortable win against Sporting in the Taça, and they will be looking to break a record once set by Fabio Capello’s Milan on Monday. If they avoid defeat at Braga, they will have the longest unbeaten streak in Europe’s top six leagues – 59 games.

The last time these two sides faced off in December, Porto were coming off the back of a 3-0 defeat to Atlético Madrid in the final Champions League group stage match, allowing the Rojiblancos to progress to the knockout round whilst sending Porto to the Europa League. The hosts took the lead in the 22nd minute as Luís Diaz chased onto a through ball from Vitinha and deftly flicked it over Matheus Magalhães, and held on for a 1-0 win.

Whilst Matheus renewed his contract at Braga until 2027 this week, Diaz ended up leaving in the January transfer window for Liverpool as Porto’s failure to qualify for the Champions League knockout round put them in a delicate financial situation and forced them to sell their best player midway through the season. Whilst Sergio Conceição is enjoying the finest spell of his time in charge of Porto and has two years remaining on his deal, Carlos Carvalhal is headed for a summer departure and has been linked with the Burnley job. And whilst Porto are closing in on a domestic double, an unbeaten season and a world record invincible streak, Braga are all but guaranteed to finish fourth and have nothing left to play for. That extra motivation plays a massive role during the final weeks of the season, and combined with their superior individual quality, I’m backing Porto to get the win against a Braga side that looked outplayed and outfought in their recent stalemate against Estoril Praia.

---

Boavista v Sporting

The phrase “in like a lion, out like a lamb.” A phrase mainly used to describe March’s radical weather swings and the transition from winter to spring, it could just as well be used to describe Sporting’s recent form.

The Lions came into April…well, like a lion, having won their three league matches in March with a two-goal cushion in each victory. They followed it up with a 2-0 win against Paços de Ferreira and a 3-1 win over Tondela. And yet, when it came time to face off against Benfica in Sunday’s Derby de Lisboa, they crumbled. Darwin Núñez opened the scoring within a quarter-hour, and yet Sporting were unable to respond and test Odysseas Vlachodimos’ goal. They had 15 shots compared to Benfica’s 10 as well as 62% possession, but just 3 shots on target compared to Benfica’s 4. Nelson Veríssimo’s side had them right where they wanted them, with substitute Gil Dias adding to the scoring in extra time. It was, by all accounts, the worst Sporting performance of the Rúben Amorim era.

Once again, they found themselves outplayed and outfought in Thursday’s visit to the Estádio do Dragão despite having the bulk of possession. Substitute Toni Martínez found the back of the net for Porto in the 82nd minute, confirming Sporting’s elimination and Porto’s passage into next month’s Taça de Portugal Final. However, it would be erroneous to state that Sporting have nothing left to play for – there are four matches left, and Sporting need to bounce back quickly if they are to maintain their six-point lead advantage over Benfica in order to seal automatic progression to the UEFA Champions League group stage rather than go through the arduous preseason qualifiers.

Sporting will be without starting right wing-back Pedro Porro and starting center forward Paulinho due to suspension, as well as Paulinho’s natural replacement Islam Slimani. The Algerian returned to Sporting in the January transfer window but has reportedly come to blows with the manager, having been left out of the matchday squad in three of the last four games. Amorim has criticized his lack of commitment in training and it appears a summer departure is on the cards.

Expect Pablo Sarabia to be shifted into a false 9 role in between Marcus Edwards and Pedro Gonçalves, with Ricardo Esgaio operating as a right wing-back in Porro’s place. Sporting have won four straight matches against the Axadrezados and seven of their last eight, with their last five matches seeing less than 2.5 goals scored.

Boavista have done their fair share of ‘giant killing’ this season, having beaten Braga 5-1 in the cup and drawing twice in the league, as well as drawing 2-2 to Benfica. However, without star striker Petar Musa as well as Tiago Morais and Sebastian Pérez, I think Sporting should have what it takes to dry off the tears and get back to winning ways in the Estádio de Bessa.

---

18+ please gamble responsibly.

---

Back the Four and Five Star Selections as an Accumulator on Betfair ⬇️

*Bet link only appears when accessing from mobile.

---

Haven’t got a Betfair account? You’re in luck…

Sign up to Betfair and get a full refund if your first bet loses. Grab an account through the offer below and place £20 on the 7/1 Primeira Liga Best Bets Accumulator. Here are the two possible outcomes: