Villarreal v Lech Poznan
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Thursday 8th September – 5:45PM KO
European football has recently brought Villarreal many happy memories, as they won the Europa League in 2020/21 and reached the Champions League semi-finals in 2021/22. This year, they’re down at Conference League level and the joint-favourite, along with West Ham, to win the whole tournament, at odds of 8.00.
They start off with a kind fixture, Lech Poznan at home. The Polish side may have won the Ekstraklasa last season, but they’ve had a poor start to the new campaign and are eighth after seven league games. Even though the form book shows they’ve won their past three, keep in mind that these were against Piast Gliwice (16th out of the 18 Ekstraklasa teams), Lechia Gdańsk (18th out of 18) and Widzew Łódź (10th out of 18).
Facing Villarreal, who are third in LaLiga with 10 points from a possible 12, is going to be several steps up, even if Unai Emery is expected to rotate significantly. Even when Villarreal changed almost the entire line-up for the qualifier against Hajduk Split, they won 4-2 at home and 2-0 away.
That makes sense since Villarreal’s focus in the summer transfer window was to improve their squad depth. Therefore, some of the players who could come in for this game include attacking talents like Samuel Chukwueze or José Luis Morales, plus the young forwards Nicolas Jackson (one goal and one assist) and Álex Baena (two goals and one assist), who have started the season well and among the goals.
Even though Villarreal are temporarily playing their “home” matches at nearby Levante’s stadium, while construction work is carried out at their own ground, they’ve already settled in seamlessly, having scored four goals in each of their two games there so far, Sunday’s 4-0 win over Elche and the aforementioned 4-2 win against Hajduk Split.
Villarreal should be expected to score more goals in this game, while they may even concede a goal of their own, something they haven’t yet done in LaLiga, given that their elite centre-back duo of Pau Torres and Raúl Albiol are both expected to be rested, along with starting goalkeeper Gerónimo Rulli.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals, 1.47 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
Molde v Gent
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Thursday 8th September – 8:00PM KO
Molde head into this match in great form having just beaten Bodø/Glimt 4-1 away from home in the Eliteserien. They are now 10 points clear at the top of their own domestic division and look set to win the title in Norway. Molde had to battle hard to progress to the group stage of this Europa Conference League. They lost the first leg against Austrian side Wolfsberger 0-1 at home but easily prevailed in the second leg 4-0. Molde do have some European pedigree and reached the last 16 of the Europa League just a few years ago when they were beaten by Spanish side Granada. Manager Erling Moe must be given credit for changing his entire formation to a 3-4-3 this year. Molde are much more adaptable than they used to be and can be harder to break down defensively sometimes. Molde are generally still quite a positive and proactive team though and possess several strong attacking weapons such as playmaker Magnus Wolff Eikrem and striker David Datro Fofana. The Ivorian forward might be especially dangerous on the break in this match using his pace to get in behind.
Belgian side Gent had to come through their own domestic playoff system to reach Europa League qualifying after finishing 5th last season. They lost 0-4 on aggregate to Cypriot side Omonia Nicosia, a result which dropped them down to the Conference League groups and not the Europa. Obviously, that was a bitter blow but at least they get to play group stage European football. Last season they had some impressive success in this competition and won the group stage with 13 points, before being knocked out in the round of 16 vs PAOK. Gent have some interesting players in their squad with some former Scandinavian connections. Former Bodø/Glimt winger Jens Petter Hauge is on loan from Frankfurt and at the back the big Kenyan and ex Elfsborg defender Joseph Okumu will be lining up. Striker Hugo Cuypers is their top scorer with four goals in all competitions.
Molde are odds-on favourites to win this match at 1.91. The general feeling about that is they might be a little bit too short. It is difficult to assess the class difference between these two teams but overall, they are maybe quite even. With home advantage Molde have a decent chance of getting a good start but usually the best bet involving their matches is to take both teams scoring or the goals. Over 2.5 can be backed at odds of 1.60 which isn’t anything remarkable, but with both teams potentially contributing then it makes sense. A Molde win something like 2-1 or 3-1 would have to be considered a potential likely outcome, so over 2.5 goals make sense.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals, 1.60 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
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