Fredrikstad v Brann

Both teams don’t have that much to play for now, but this should still be a really feisty game of football. Each team is one of the best supported in Norway and for this level of football then the attendance figures should be very high. Fredrikstad have had a poor season but managed to confirm their survival by beating Stjørdals-Blink 2-1 last week. They scored two second half goals in the space of two minutes and can now relax after enduring a difficult campaign.

Expectations were high for FFK this season and many people expected them to reach the playoffs again. What transpired though was a terrible summer which saw manager Bjørn Johansen sacked after 5 years in charge. Caretaker manager Joachim Klaeboe has picked up 7 points from his four games in charge and has achieved the objective of remaining in the OBOS Ligaen, in addition to playing some entertaining football. Fredrikstad have the 5th best xG er 90 mins this season (1.80) but at the other end of the field their xGA has been a constant problem, (48.68) and they have conceded a total of 50 goals.

Brann head into this fixture top of the table and a massive 21 points clear at the summit. They secured the title and promotion a long time ago and will have been disappointed to lose 1-3 away to Mjøndalen recently and the chance of an ‘invincible’ campaign is no longer a possibility. However, if they win their final two matches, they will break an OBOS Ligaen points record so they still have that to fight for.

Brann have been by far the best team in the league and are top of pretty much every statistic possible. Their xG per 90 mins is a massive 2.71, whilst at the other end of the field they have the only somewhat respectable defence, conceding only 14 goals in 28 games. This squad always did look too good for this division but there is no doubt they’ve done an extremely professional job to achieve an immediate bounce-back promotion so impressively. Manager Eirik Horneland deserves a lot of praise for how he has handled the team Brann are the 1.30 favourites to win this match, probably based on the fact they still have some potential motivation to achieve the record points total.

There is going to be a great atmosphere here. Fredrikstad Stadion is one of the biggest club grounds in the whole of Norway. Over 2,500 Brann fans will be in attendance and there have been several special deals for home fans. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see over 10,000 be inside the stadium for this fixture. I think it will be a great game of football with plenty of goals and each side will want to put on an entertaining show. Over 3.5 goals can be backed at a juicy price of 2.10 and I think this is worth taking. Brann could cover this line on their own, but Fredrikstad should be fired up at home to also contribute. For those preferring a safer selection then over 2.5 could be taken at shorter odds, but this feels like the sort of game which could totally explode.

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Sogndal v Start

This could still be a potential playoff fixture in a few weeks’ time but for that to happen then Sogndal will have to win their last two games and hope that other results go their way. Sogndal were really disappointing last week when they lost 0-2 away to already relegated Grorud. That was not an acceptable result and could be extremely harmful in their pursuit of the top six places. Manager Tore Andre Flo has had a mixed season in what has been his first full time senior role as head coach. He has generally employed a 4-4-2 formation this season but recently reverted to a 3-4-3 system to counteract some poor defensive problems. Flo switched back to the 4-4-2 in the last couple of games though, presumably because they faced struggling opposition in the form of Stjørdals-Blink who they beat 6-1, and then the aforementioned Grorud loss.

Sogndal are in a position where they simply have to go down swinging here because anything other than a victory could see their playoff hopes end. Sogndal have been constantly plagued with defensive issues all season and their 51 goals conceded is the most of any team currently inside the top 12 places! They have a disappointing xGA of 1.84 per 90 mins and are fortunate that their attack force saved them on several occasions. Winger Jonatan Ingi Jonsson has been their standout player statistically, scoring 11 goals and contributing 10 assists. He has been relegated to the bench recently though.

Start travel here already assured of a playoff position but they will want to finish as high as they possibly can to give them the best possible seeding. Only two more victories would ensure they finish in 4th place and there is still a chance they could overturn KFUM Oslo who are one point above them. Start have generally been in very good form in the last couple of months. They have won 6 of their last 7 OBOS fixtures with the only recent blemish a surprise 2-3 away defeat to Skeid. The last ten consecutive Start league games have all contained over 2.5 goals and they have been in rich goalscoring form, netting 24 times in their last 7 games combined.

They are finding some form at the right time and could make a case for being the most likely team to win the OBOS playoffs right now. Start are 2.10 away favourites here which is no surprise and looks like a fair price. The key man for this team right now is definitely playmaker Eirik Schulze who has scored seven goals and also chipped in with two assists in the last ten games.

This match has all the hallmarks of being high scoring. Start are naturally involved in several shootouts recently and are capable of covering an over 2.5 goal line on their own. Meanwhile, Sogndal simply have to take risks to win this game and must be on the front foot as often as possible. I suspect Start will win the game because Sogndal are simply too patchy and unreliable. There should be at least three goals scored and over 2.5 at odds of 1.47 looks a perfectly good price.

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Mjøndalen v Grorud

The situation for Mjøndalen is that they must win their final two matches and hope that other results go their way. The playoffs are still a possibility for this team but a 1-2 defeat away to Bryne last week could prove to be very hurtful towards their chances of finishing in the top six. It has been a mixed and turbulent season for MIF upon their relegation to the OBOS. They started magnificently by winning 7 of their first 8 games but then a horrible mid-season slump eventually resulted in the sacking of long standing manger Vegard Hansen.

The man currently in charge is interim boss Kevin Nicol who has generally done well. He’s won 4 and lost 4 of his eight games in charge, including an excellent 3-1 victory vs runaway league leaders Brann in their most recent home match. Mjøndalen are the only team to beat Brann this season which is certainly a feather in Nicol’s cap. He has brought a more entertaining brand of football to the club and 7 of his 8 games have all ended with over 2.5 goals. This is a completely different team now to when Hansen was in charge.

Mjøndalen will expect to win this match because they face already relegated Grorud. The visitors have however found some form out of nowhere in the last couple of weeks. It took Grorud a massive 22 games to get their first victory of the season, but they have now won 3 of their last 6 league fixtures, including consecutive victories vs playoff contenders Sandnes and Sogndal. Maybe they can add another team to their list of conquests here.

It seems that Grorud are enjoying playing with no pressure on their shoulders in a situation where nothing is at stake anymore. One thing which can’t be ignored is Grorud’s terrible defensive record which has seen them concede a massive 65 goals in 28 games. Their clean sheet obtained last week was their first of the entire season! They needed Sogndal to miss a penalty for that to happen though and I suspect it will prove to be a complete one off. Grorud have scored 7 goals in their last 3 games and at this stage of the season they are clearly playing with freedom.

Mjøndalen should win but I am not sure I can trust them at odds of 1.44. They have to risk everything here because anything less than a victory is not acceptable. Grorud have shown in their last two games that they could be awkward opponents with no pressure on their shoulders. Over 2.5 goals looks like the best bet here. Mjøndalen could cover this line on their own facing such a terrible defence, but the visitors also look like contributing. Since Kevin Nicol took over as manager, Mjøndalen matches have been quite high scoring which leads me to believe this will be quite an open contest.

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