Porto v Paços de Ferreira

Paços de Ferreira and Marítimo kicked off last weekend’s Primeira Liga action in a Friday night fixture that would see the bottom two sides in the league face off in Paços de Ferreira. The biggest surprise in either line-up would be Venezuelan striker Jesús Ramírez getting his first start of the season for Marítimo ahead of Joel Tagueu and rewarding João Henriques’ trust by opening the scoring within 28 minutes, leading the Madeira-based side to their first victory and their first clean sheet since April 16 in a 1-0 win and condemning Paços to a fourth straight defeat in all competitions. The Beavers sit bottom of the league and have become the first side since Rio Ave in 1996/97 to pick up two points or fewer after their first 11 Primeira matches, and they haven’t tasted a victory or a clean sheet since April 9, when they defeated Marítimo 2-0 at home. I don’t expect them to end either drought as they take on Sérgio Conceição’s Porto.

It has been a shaky start to the season for the Dragons who sit third in the table with 23 points, eight behind league leaders Benfica, two behind Braga, three above Vitória and Casa Pia and four above Sporting. Porto’s perfect start of five wins in five matches came to an end on August 28 in a 3-1 defeat at Rio Ave, before slipping up again three weeks later in a 1-1 draw against Estoril Praia that would see them snatch a 99th-minute equalizer from the penalty spot via Mehdi Taremi. They closed out September with a 4-1 win against Braga before winning four straight matches in all competitions, only to go down to 10 men within 27 minutes of the Clássico and concede a 72nd-minute counter attacking goal from Rafa Silva, their first loss to Benfica since March 2019.

Porto would quickly bounce back from that loss at the Dragão by thrashing Club Brugge 4-0 in Belgium and giving them their first defeat and goal conceded in five matches, meaning that, despite losing their first two matches to Atlético Madrid and Club Brugge – the latter a 4-0 humiliation at the Dragão – Porto qualified for the Round of 16 with one match remaining due to Atlético Madrid’s failure to beat Bayer Leverkusen. When Fabio Cardoso gave Porto the lead against his former club after three minutes, Santa Clara looked headed for a humiliating defeat in the Azores, but they nevertheless kept their composure and leveled proceedings in the 83rd minute via a goal from Kennedy Boateng, who was signed from SV Ried in 2021 to replace Cardoso in the heart of defense, and hung on for a 1-1 draw in Ponta Delgada.

Porto once again bounced back with a 2-1 win against Atlético Madrid, taking the lead within five minutes via Mehdi Taremi and doubling it in the 24th minute via Eustáquio – the Canadian midfielder scoring his second straight goal following his early expulsion against Benfica – only to ruin Diogo Costa’s clean sheet in the 95th minute via an own goal from Iván Marcano. They will be looking to take care of business early on this time around as they take on a Paços side that is sinking quickly, before facing off against second-tier side Mafra in the Taça de Portugal and playing Boavista in the crosstown derby prior to the World Cup. With Wenderson Galeno emerging as one of the league’s deadliest wingers on the left flank and Taremi looking to make up the distance with Fran Navarro, Rafa Silva, Pote, and Gonçalo Ramos atop the league’s top scorers list, I think Porto are going to be in for a high-scoring, comfortable victory against José Mota’s hapless Beavers.

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Sporting v Vitória de Guimarães

After leading Sporting to their first league title in 19 years in his first full season in charge, Rúben Amorim guided the Lions to another 85-point haul and a second-place finish as well as their first knockout round berth in the Champions League in 13 years, securing their presence in the Round of 16 with one match remaining despite losing their first two matches, before losing 5-0 on aggregate to Manchester City. This time around, Sporting would win their first two Champions League matches – a 3-0 win at Eintracht Frankfurt and a 2-0 home win vs. Tottenham Hotspur – before losing twice to Marseille and going down to 10 men within the first 23 minutes on both occasions, drawing 1-1 to Tottenham Hotspur and setting up a tantalizing final matchday that saw every team in Group D enter their game with a chance of finishing first and a chance of getting knocked out. Sporting would take the lead before halftime via a well-taken volley from Arthur Gomes, only to concede a penalty at the hour-mark with Daichi Kamada equalizing from the spot and Randal Kolo Muani firing in a half-volley in the 72nd minute to secure a 2-1 win for Eintracht Frankfurt. They looked set for a fourth-place finish, but a last-minute goal from Harry Kane against Marseille would see Sporting thrusted into a third-place finish and Europa League football.

For the first time since 1966/67, Sporting have conceded goals in 10 straight matches, with their last clean sheet coming on September 13 in a 2-0 win against Spurs. Seven of Sporting’s last 10 goals have seen both teams find the back of the net, and I think there’s a good chance we’ll see the same on Saturday at the Estádio José Alvalade. Following a 1-0 loss at Arouca, Sporting currently sit sixth in the table, one point behind Vitória and Casa Pia, four behind Porto, six behind Braga and 12 behind Benfica. Their next match will see them take on Vitória, a team that has been held to a clean sheet on only three occasions: a 1-0 loss to Casa Pia on August 29, a 1-0 loss to Braga on September 3, and a 0-0 draw to Benfica on October 1. It was an impressive October for Vitória who have gone from strength to strength under new manager Moreno, who was appointed just nine days before the first match of the season following Pepa’s abrupt resignation, with the Conquistadores beating Paços de Ferreira 1-0 despite going down to 10 men after 41 minutes, as well as beating 10-man Canelas 3-1 in the Taça de Portugal before taking back-to-back 3-2 wins against Boavista and Famalicão. They’ll be following up their trip to Lisbon by hosting Vizela in a midweek Taça de Portugal match before hosting Marítimo in their final match before the World Cup – Sporting, on the other hand, will have to wait eight days before their next match against Famalicão, having lost 1-0 to third-tier Varzim in the cup.

The last time these two sides played, Óscar Estupiñán broke the deadlock within 23 minutes only for Pablo Sarabia to equalize from the penalty spot at the interval, with Paulinho giving Sporting the lead in the 70th minute and Marcus Edwards scoring in the final minute against his former club. I would not be surprised if Saturday’s match follows this pattern and sees plenty of goals from either side.

Braga v Casa Pia

Since the start of 2022, Braga have been held to clean sheets on five occasions in the Primeira Liga: a 0-1 loss to Marítimo on January 15, a 0-0 draw to Santa Clara on February 28, a 1-0 loss to Gil Vicente on March 13, a 0-0 draw to Estoril Praia on April 18, and a 1-0 loss to Chaves on October 9. The draw to Estoril came four days after a 3-1 defeat to Rangers that saw them lose in extra time at Ibrox to end their Europa League journey in the quarterfinals, their first trip to the last eight since 2015/16.

After beginning the campaign with a 3-3 draw to Sporting and eight straight wins, Braga would return from the international break from a 4-1 defeat to Porto, a 2-1 loss at Union Saint-Gilloise, a 1-0 loss to Chaves, a 3-3 draw to USG, a 2-1 win against lower-tier Felgueiras in the cup, a 2-0 win against Estoril Praia, a 1-0 loss to Union Berlin, and a 1-0 win against Gil Vicente. Having begun September with a 2-0 win against Malmö and a 1-0 win against Union Berlin, Braga looked set for a comfortable Europa League progression, only for their slip-ups against Union Berlin and USG to cost them dearly. Braga held up their end of the bargain midweek, taking the lead before halftime via Ricardo Horta and adding another via Alvaro Djaló in the 55th minute only to concede a late goal from Malmö’s Patriot Sejdiu in a 2-1 win against the Swedes, but alas, it wasn’t enough. With Bundesliga leaders Union Berlin pulling off a 1-0 win in Belgium against USG, it meant that Braga, for the first time since 2018/19, would not be playing Europa League knockout round football. They will, however, become the first Portuguese team to play in the UEFA Europa Conference League, with the last four teams each falling in the UECL qualifiers.

It is a hammer blow for the Arsenalistas, and I think their ‘European hangover’ could result in a similarly disappointing result to the Estoril draw back in April. Artur Jorge’s side are second in the table, six points behind Benfica, two above Porto and five above Vitória and Casa Pia, but for the first time this season, they are no longer the highest-scoring team in Portugal following Benfica’s 5-0 obliteration of Chaves. The goals aren’t falling in the same way they were at the start of the campaign, and whilst they have won two straight matches, you’d have backed them to grab more than 1 goal against a Gil side that is fighting relegation and more than 2 against a Malmö side that sits seventh in the Allsvenskan.

Casa Pia have scored just 11 goals in their first 11 matches, the second-lowest amongst Portugal’s top 13 teams behind Portimonense and Vizela (9), but they find themselves in the top 5 thanks to a stellar defensive record – only Benfica have conceded fewer (5) than Casa Pia’s 8. After ending an 83-year top-flight drought last season thanks to conceding just 22 goals in 34 matches, Casa Pia have racked up eight clean sheets in all competitions – all of them ending in 2.5 goals or fewer – the lone exceptions being a 1-0 loss to Benfica on August 13, a 3-2 win at Paços de Ferreira, a 2-1 win at Marítimo, and a 3-1 loss to Sporting. They would follow that defeat by beating fellow promoted side Rio Ave 1-0 at the weekend via a goal from Saviour Godwin, an emotional match that came within hours of manager Filipe Martins losing his father. With Braga recovering from the humiliation of a third-place finish and Europa Conference League football, I think Casa Pia have everything it takes to keep themselves in the contest and keep Braga’s attack at bay. Several of Braga’s matches have seen fewer than 2.5 goals scored, including both of their matches against Union Berlin and their win against Vitória, and I would not be surprised to see this one follow the pattern.

Estoril Praia v Benfica

Only two teams remain undefeated in Europe: Benfica and Paris Saint-Germain. Both sides entered the final matchday with the knowledge that their knockout round spot was secure, but Benfica knew that, in case Paris Saint-Germain won against Juventus, they would have to beat Maccabi Haifa by over four goals in order to finish top of their group. Benfica opened the scoring after 20 minutes via Gonçalo Ramos only to concede a penalty goal shortly, with substitute Petar Musa restoring their lead at the hour-mark. Alex Grimaldo stretched the lead to two in the 69th minute – the same minute that Kylian Mbappé restored PSG’s lead in Turin in what would eventually be a 2-1 win. Whilst Les Parisiens would fail to find another goal in the next 20+ minutes, Benfica would find 3: Rafa Silva added a fourth in the 73rd minute, Henrique Araújo came off the bench to make it 5 in the 88th minute, with João Mário scoring in the 92nd minute to secure a 6-1 win in Israel and first place.

It was another routine win for Roger Schmidt’s side, who began the season with 13 straight wins before starting October with draws to Vitória, Paris Saint-Germain (twice), a 4-2 win against Rio Ave in the league, and a 1-1 draw at third-tier Caldas followed by a penalty shootout victory. Their next four games have seen them edge Porto 1-0 at the Dragão, beating their eternal rivals for the first time since March 2019, followed by a 4-3 win against Juventus, a 5-0 win against Chaves, and a 6-1 win against Maccabi Haifa. They have scored 16 goals in six Champions League games, the best tally for a Portuguese side since 2014/15 Porto, and they have ended the group stage campaign without a single defeat for the first time since 2011/12 – the last time they topped a group. Roger Schmidt has also joined the company of Elek Schwartz in 1964/65 and Bela Guttman in 1959/60 as the only managers avoid defeat in their first 22 matches in charge of Benfica, and I’m expecting that form to continue as the Eagles look to maintain their six-point lead atop the Primeira table.

Benfica will travel to Cascais on Sunday to face off against eighth-placed Estoril Praia, before playing in the same stadium and against the same opponent for their midweek Taça de Portugal fixture, and entering the World Cup break by hosting lowly Gil Vicente next weekend. One of the keys to their impressive form has been a clearly defined starting lineup – with the exception of Norwegian midfielder Fredrik Aursnes, who has emerged as a key player in a withdrawn attacking role on the left flank as well as in the double pivot – Schmidt’s line-up just about writes itself. Whilst Enzo Fernández – who was absent from the XI against Maccabi Haifa for the first time all season after picking up too many yellows – should return to the line-up for Estoril, it remains to be seen whether or not Schmidt will accompany him with Florentino Luís or Aursnes in the double pivot, or if Aursnes gets the nod in attack ahead of Rafa Silva, João Mário or David Neres. What is clear is that this Benfica side is playing like one of the best teams in Europe, and with a lengthy World Cup break looming for most of their key players, this is no time to slow down.

Estoril will be missing starting goalkeeper Daniel Figueira and midfielder João Carvalho after both were sent off in last week’s 1-1 draw against Portimonense, and both will be major absences for Nélson Veríssimo, who served as Benfica’s interim manager for the second half of last season before taking charge of Estoril. When they hosted Sporting on September 2, Sporting opened the scoring after 13 minutes and doubled the lead within 21 minutes to seal a 2-0 win. When they hosted Braga on October 22, Braga opened the scoring after 10 minutes and doubled it within 31 to seal a 2-0 win. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result here as Benfica travel to the Lisbon beachside community – expect Benfica to come away with a win and a two-goal margin of victory.

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