Monaco is our next stop on the train journey, we’re looking for the home side to score two goals against an Auxerre side that have only won one game away from home all season in Ligue 1, conceding 22 goals across these 14 games. 

Monaco have faced off against Auxerre twice already this season, winning both games 2-1 and producing an xG of 5.13 from 30 shots across these games. In other words, they have dominated Auxerre in both head to head clashes - and scored at least two goals in each of the last eight head to head meetings between the sides. 

Monaco were on an unreal run of form before their 4-1 defeat to Paris FC on the road last time out, but the underlying numbers don’t reflect the extremity of that result on paper - with Monaco having 19 shots and generating an xG of 2.31, to Paris FC’s 12 shots and 2.61 xG. Monaco had scored 2+ goals in each of their last 9 matches prior to that defeat, a run that includes three games against PSG.

Monaco have scored 31 goals across their 15 home matches this season (2.06 per game), only Marseille, PSG and Lens have scored more goals at home in Ligue 1 this season than Monaco. This sets up the home side well to score at least twice here. 

It also helps that they have the most in-form player in Ligue 1 at the moment with Florian Balogun scoring in each of his last six appearances in the French top flight. 

Did you know Liverpool have failed to win any of their last 10 away matches against Everton? It surprised me when I saw that stat, but it’s a good omen for this leg of our Bet Builder. 

Everton have plenty to play for in this derby as they welcome their local rivals, who are probably as weak as they have been in the last five years. Everton have scored in four of their last five matches across all competitions, only failing to score against Arsenal in this sequence on the road. 

David Moyes’ side welcome a Liverpool side that have lost four of their last five matches across all competitions, notably conceding 2+ goals in all four of these defeats. Everton managed to get on the scoresheet when these sides clashed at Anfield earlier in the season - managing nine shots and an xG of 0.70 as they fell to a 2-1 defeat.

Everton have scored 21 goals across their 16 home games in the Premier League this season (1.31 per game), which lines up well with Liverpool’s record on the road - Arne Slot’s side have conceded 25 goals across their 16 away games in the Premier League this term, which is already as many as they conceded on the road last season, despite three away games reminding of the campaign.

Everton have plenty to play for here. They’re in a race to finish in a European spot for the first time in over five years, a win here would move them to within two points of Liverpool - and blow the race for a Champions League spot wide open.

Mamardashvili is filling in for Alisson at the moment for Liverpool, which is a massive blow for Arne Slot ahead of a crucial derby. Mamardashvili is not a bad keeper, but he’s definitely a drop off from the quality of Alisson - who has, at times, single handedly kept Liverpool in games of this nature.

Mamardashvili was forced into making three saves as Liverpool lost 2-0 to PSG during the week. Obviously David Moyes’ side don’t quite have the potency in attack of Dembele, Doue and Kvaratskhelia - but they do have players that can test the keeper, including Ndiaye and Dewsbury-Hall, who I’ve been really impressed with this season.

A more accurate comparison would be Mamardashvili's performance against Fulham last time out. He was forced into making four saves, with the Cottagers racking up 19 shots in total.

James Tarkowski is such an underrated centre back. He rarely puts a foot wrong, and is perfectly suited to the temperature of the Premier League - which has been tuned towards physicality and aerial duels, his bread and butter.

Tarkowski has won 31 fouls across his 31 starts in the Premier League this season (1.00 per 90). This is a really strong record for a centre back, and only really matched by Ezri Konsa in the Premier League - who is another player we regularly back to win fouls.

Tarkowski was fouled once when these sides met earlier in the season, and will be faced up by Cody Gakpo with Ekitike and Isak expected to be sidelined for this clash. Gakpo can be clumsy with his challenges, especially when playing out of position, and is averaging 1.40 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League - also committing a foul when these sides last met.

The initial league meeting between these sides produced nine match corners, just one below the line we require here. Corners have been an integral part of the Premier League this season, the 25/26 season has seen more goals from non-penalty set pieces than we have in each of the last 10 seasons.

Both of these sides have utilised corners pretty often this season. It’s a natural association you make when watching David Moyes’ sides, but Arne Slot has leant more towards these set piece situations as the season has gone on - no side has won more corners on the road than Liverpool in the Premier League this term (6.00 per game).

This is particularly interesting, as Slot came out a few weeks ago and complained about sides wanting to play in this way, focusing on marginal gains and set piece situations, but his side have become part of the trend. Everton are also pretty good for corners at home, averaging 5.31 corners per game across their 16 games at the Hill Dickinson Stadium this term.