It feels as if people are still sleeping on Chesterfield as far as the race for promotion goes in the National League.

Thanks to the insane records of Notts County and Wrexham, Chesterfield are firmly acknowledged as the third horse. However, they have accrued 2.13 points per game over their 23 league matches and winning their four games in hands on Notts County would leave them level on points with the current leaders. Three of their four defeats came inside one week – remove that one week of football and their points-per-game is the best in the division.

The Spireites have won 15 of their 23 league matches. Have won eight of their last ten league matches and ten of their 12 home matches. Have scored two or more in ten of their 12 home matches, in 18 of their 23 league matches, in every match played against a side in the current top ten and in every home match against a side in the current top 13. There have been over 1.5 goals in 91% of their league matches this season.

Can Altrincham halt their progress? On the one hand, they are in fine form. They are unbeaten in eight league matches and in Chris Conn-Clarke, have a player in sensational form. However, they’ve only played one league match against a side above them in that period.

They have lost Elliot Newby, Connor Jennings, and Ryan Colclough (to their midweek hosts, nonetheless), three of their four starting attackers. They have picked up three points from a possible 27 against sides above them in the table, conceded two or more in six of those and lost all three matches against the “big three”. They have conceded two or more in nine of their 13 away matches.

I backed Maidenhead United to pick up a big result at the weekend before it was called off and I’m backing them again in midweek.

It’s all about their record of beating top sides. In their last two seasons, they have won more games against top half sides than bottom half sides. This season, they have won five matches against top half sides and three against those in and around them. They have won four of their six home matches against top half sides, drawing against Wealdstone (a game they would have won but for poor finishing and top goalkeeping) and losing 4-3 against league leaders Notts County.

Their victories often come from nowhere – they will win a game after a bout of poor form out of nowhere because they are always competitive in games, so you can ignore the form table. That said, they are creating chances in home games – they sit 8th in the league for xG at home.

Why are they going to get a result against Southend United? For starters, the visitors have been rocked by more off-field issues, a court case finishing with the club being given 42 days to secure a loan and pay HMRC.

They’re also not great away from home, three of their four away wins all coming in the space of a week. They have otherwise won one, drawn four and lost four on the road. They have lost two of their last three away from home and failed to score in their last two. The club are under a transfer embargo again so additions cannot be made to help a side that has succumbed to injuries again recently – four of their standard first-choice XI have gone down, including two of their front three.

I’m backing Maidstone United to get a first victory under the very likeable George Elokobi when they host Aldershot Town during the week.

It’s been a fun start under Elokobi, his side scoring twice away at Notts County in the FA Trophy before winning on penalties and coming from 2-0 down to draw level with Wrexham only to lose at the death. The performances have been promising, the on-pitch strategy simplified, players back in their proper positions and the buzz around the place generally happier. There is a bit of variance here.

Hakan Hayrettin was getting a certain level of performance, but his side lacked confidence and errors were being made as a result. That belief has come back under Elokobi. They’re also generally good at home – they are unbeaten on their artificial surface against sides 18th or lower and have only lost one of six against the same opposition home or away.

Aldershot Town have had a strange time of things under Ross McNeilly, the former youth coach overseeing six wins, seven defeats and a draw in his early days as manager. However, a bright start has turned into a less impressive run of form, his side winning three of their last 11.

They have picked up four points on the road against Solihull Moors and Bromley but have conceded 45 shots in those two matches and have been fortunate to hold onto the leads, McNeilly regularly chopping and changing shape within games to keep his side afloat. They have won just three of eight matches against sides below them in the table.

A game between two sides whose situations have drastically changed since the start of the season and not necessarily in a positive way.

Oldham Athletic and York City came into the season with John Sheridan and John Askey in charge, two managers who prioritise defensive shape and getting the better of tight margins. They have been replaced by David Unsworth and David Webb, people with top level experience and who want to bring more attacking brands of football to their clubs in a bid to close the gap between themselves and the Football League.

Both have been backed to make changes with new players signed and long-term contracts being given out. However, Oldham have only slipped further into trouble while York’s form has been hit and miss.

Starting with the hosts, they have seen both teams score in their last six matches. They are having issues defensively with Lois Maynard and Jordan Clarke missing again and youngster Will Sutton and ex-Everton youth Josef a drafted into the fold to cover. When you remove the two games against Notts County over Christmas, a different challenge to the rest, Oldham are averaging over 1.6xG for per game over their last eight while conceding at a fairly similar rate.

The visitors have seen both teams score in their last two matches and also in their FA Trophy game with Chelmsford City. They have changed shape, opting for a 4-3-3 rather than 3-5-2, in an attempt to be more expressive, seeing attacking midfielder Mitch Hancox return to his old position of left-back and youngster Shaqai Forde playing. They have conceded around 2xG in their last five league matches but scored nine goals in that time.