Ipswich Town v Sheffield Wednesday
As the gap to those once-occupied top places seems to grow further, do Ipswich need to start feeling concerned about holding their third place status? The Tractor Boys tick all the boxes when it comes to the underlying numbers this season, but are continually being frustrated by dropped points in winnable matches. Ipswich have played 10 league matches since the beginning of December, and have only picked up three victories. It is a nowhere near sufficient points total to match the high standards set by the top two of Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth Argyle, and even more worryingly is weaker form than Derby County and Bolton Wanderers who both sit within two points of them.
Poor efficiency is proving costly to Kieran McKenna’s side, who provide a formidable-looking teamsheet in either a 3-4-3, 3-4-2-1 or 4-2-3-1. Top scorer Conor Chaplin is the attacking star in an attacking midfield or winger role, striker Freddie Lapado has had a better goal output than is being given general credit for. Concern that Ipswich may be set for a period without midfield lynchpin Lee Evans is not ideal either. Further pressure could be put onto 19-year-old midfielder Cameron Humphreys, who has impressed but needs his gametime managed.
The huge games keep coming for Sheffield Wednesday. Last weekend, at a sold out Hillsborough, the Owls picked up a controlled 1-0 victory over Plymouth Argyle which saw them move to the top of the division on goal difference. The victory may have seen goalscorer Callum Paterson taken off through what looks a concerning injury, but has extended the S6 outfit’s unbeaten run to 16 league matches.
Darren Moore’s team carry immense strength in depth. Proloned periods without defenders Ben Heneghan and Michael Ihiekwe, as well as the departure of Mark McGuinness back to Cardiff City, have not held back the Owls backline. Stoke City’s Aden Flint is a formidable presence in the centre with Liam Palmer and Dominic Iorfa on either side. A recent period without star midfielder Barry Bannan saw Josh Windass up his game in attacking midfield and striker roles. Lee Gregory and Michael Smith all continue to be key contributors in the frontline. Marvin Johnson’s performances at left-wing-back cannot be ignored either.
When these two met at Portman Road last season, the game ended with an infamous incident. Ipswich’s equaliser originated from Macauley Bonne silently waiting behind Bailey Peacock-Farrell, waiting he dropped the ball at his feet before stealing possession. What Ipswich could well give for a moment like that again this weekend? Beat Sheffield Wednesday, the gap to them closes to just three points. Lose to the leaders, and the gap to the top two could be as big as nine points. The Tractor Boys really need this, but the challenge doesn’t come any harder for them against the team currently looking the best in the entire division.
Charlton v Fleetwood Town
Charlton and both teams to score has been a rather profitable marriage for us this season, and if it is not broke do not fix it. The Addicks have been one of the best attacking teams in League One this season, scoring the second most goals from open play and the third most from home games this term, while only keeping five clean sheets from 28 league games. Had there been a bit more investment in the defence in the summer, they would be in the conversation to finish in the play-offs.
68% of their league games have seen both teams score, which is the highest percentage of any club in England’s top four tiers, there is a reason we keep repeating the selection. Jayden Stockley began the season as Charlton captain, and poignantly summarising how badly the campaign has gone, he joined Fleetwood Town in January on a permanent basis. It will be interesting to see how the target man gets on against his old side after scoring on his debut last weekend, likely to be partnered by another late window signing in Jack Marriott at the top of the pitch.
Charlton are good for a goal, but you cannot trust that backline, BTTS appeals once again.
Cheltenham Town v Accrington
Cheltenham Town have picked up just one point in their last six league games, but performances have been much better than results suggest.
The Robins have competed well with Derby County, Plymouth Argyle and Bolton Wanderers in that run, but have come out empty-handed, and seven of their last eight league defeats have been by a single goal margin, with the exception to rule being a 4-2 loss at Argyle.
They have comfortably won the expected goals (xG) battle in their last three home league games, against Port Vale, Derby County and Argyle, yielding just one point. It is about time that run of bad fortune changed, and Accrington Stanley are the visitors on Saturday, one of the worst teams in the division.
Stanley have only won one of their last eight in League One, and could be hurtling towards relegation as their squad, that was not deep to begin with, has been ravaged by injuries for months. John Coleman may be able to call on Michael Nottingham and Mitch Clark again at the weekend, while Harry Perritt will return from suspension, but they are playing at a much lower level than the Robins at the moment.
Plymouth v Portsmouth
Plymouth Argyle have been rocked by a season-ending injury to Michael Cooper that will almost definitely negatively impact their chances of sealing automatic promotion to the Championship.
After having such an influential player as Morgan Whittaker recalled by Swansea City in January, for this blow to come so soon will be painful for Steven Schumacher. Having said that, with Ipswich Town dropping off and Derby County still with ground to cover, Argyle have a great chance and a continuation of their remarkable home record this season could see them over the line.
Portsmouth are still getting a bit more respect from the market due to the size of the club, and despite results improving a touch, there has not been a great deal in performances to suggest that there has been a significant improvement since John Mousinho replaced Danny Cowley at the helm. Long term absentees for Pompey are Jayden Reid and Joe Rafferty, the latter was a key player in their early season good form, and they travel to face Argyle who have won 13 from 14 at Home Park in the league this season.
Despite the injury to Cooper I am willing to side with the Pilgrims.
Wycombe v Derby County
The job that Paul Warne is doing at Derby County cannot be understated, and six wins on the bounce has seen them recently enter the automatic promotion conversation. The Rams are eight points behind Plymouth Argyle, but with a game in hand, and with three previous third tier promotions on Warne’s CV, you would not bet against them.
They travel to a Wycombe Wanderers side who are chasing the play-offs under Gareth Ainsworth, unbeaten in their last 15 league outings. The Chairboys have won five of their last seven in the third tier, and are enormously overperforming their wage bill once again. Derby edged them out 2-1 at Pride Park earlier in the season, but that was prior to Warne’s appointment.
David McGoldrick will arrive fresh off the back of a hat-trick in their 5-0 win over Morecambe last weekend, his third of the season by the way, in pursuit of another three points. With Anis Mehmeti leaving for Bristol City in the January transfer window, Wycombe are not the same side going forward, and even with some impressive recent form, they may well be coming up against the best team in the league.
I have been trying to get with Derby for a couple of months or so, and their outright price at Adams Park is also tempting. The last three selections in this piece are rather short, but the trio of Draw No Bet tips would offer odds of 3.05 if combined, allowing you to sit back and watch the scores come in with the knowledge that you will at least have your stake returned if all three avoid defeat.
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Written by an Andy verified content writer
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