Bolton v Barnsley
League 1 Play-Off Semi Final
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Kick Off: 15:00
Bolton v Barnsley Cheat Sheet
A Wembley Double On The Cards?
Bolton Wanderers and their fans have already made the trip to Wembley Stadium once this season, and very much enjoyed their time there. The reigning EFL Trophy holders are now targeting a second visit to the National Stadium in the space of just a couple of months, and a chance to further demonstrate the progression and potential under current ownership and current manager Ian Evatt.
It has been some ride for Bolton fans since exiting the Premier League back in 2012. Deep issues within the club has led to them seeing their club play in all three divisions of the EFL, and very nearly fall out of existence in the late 2010s. Since dropping into the fourth tier in 2020-21, this has felt a club on the mend and one capable of climbing back up the pyramid and start to realise that dream of a return to top flight football again. Promoted from League Two in 2021. Ninth in League One in 2022. Bolton are now targeting Championship football again for the first time since 2019.
Targeting The Immediate Return
On the back of a miserable 2021-22 in the Championship, you could forgive Barnsley fans for having low levels of optimism ahead of a season back in the third tier. Gradually however, the reasons for confidence have become apparent. Appointing Cheltenham Town’s Michael Duff as manager in the summer has proved a shrewd move, and the 45-year-old has assembled a team which spent the second half of the season hitting a standard which left them as an outside shot for automatic promotion.
86 points from 46 matches is a total which has been able to earn automatic promotion in some previous League One seasons. The Tykes will now want to take that strong regular season performance into the play-offs, knowing at the same time that whilst they are not the highest-ranked side in these post season matches, they did enjoy a league double over Sheffield Wednesday and could relish the prospect of facing them again in a Wembley final.
Barnsley have to overcome Bolton Wanderers first before there is any possibility of that happening though…
Team News
Bolton Wanderers Team News
Commanding defender Ricardo Santos returned to the squad on the final day at Bristol Rovers and played the first half. He should be fancied to sit between George Johnston and Eoin Toal in the backline if fit, with MJ Williams a possible alternative in that central centre-back role.
Goalkeeper James Trafford and right-wing-back Conor Bradley, on loan from Manchester City and Liverpool respectively, where left out of the final day squad as a precaution and the key men should be expected to return for the play-offs. Attacking midfielder Kyle Dempsey should likewise be expected to return for a key role in these post season matches.
Gethin Jones was forced off in the first half at Bristol Rovers with injury and is a doubt for this game at the University of Bolton Stadium. His versatility at wing-back and centre-back makes him a valuable asset to Ian Evatt’s team, and the much more attacking Randell Williams will have to take his place at left-wing-back if Jones isn’t available.
Barnsley Team News
Barnsley fans will be sweating on the concerns around central defender Mads Andersen, an ever-influential figure in the centre of the Tykes back three. The Dane has missed both of Barnsley’s last two matches with an abductor issue and though Michael Duff hasn’t ruled out the chance of him playing this weekend, he notes that the defender has yet to return to training. Right-wing-back Jordan Williams may have to be dropped back into the backline if Andersen is unavailable, with Burnley loanee Bobby Thomas taking up the central spot alongside Liam Kitching.
Nicky Cadden, Herbie Kane, Luca Connell and Adam Phillips all look prime candidates to start across the midfield five. Barry Cotter may have to feature at right-wing-back if Williams is forced further back. Duff has a quartet of strikers to choose from in James Norwood, Devante Cole, Slobodan Tedić and Max Watters and often mixes up his starting combination. All should feature on the pitch at some point in this first leg though.
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals
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Odds: 1.57
It can be seen as typical of a play-off first leg to see a tight, tense match where neither side wants to suffer a deficit ahead of the crucial second leg. It could argued that this whole Bolton Wanderers v Barnsley tie could follow that mould.
Bolton have conceded just 36 goals across their 46 league matches, only second place Ipswich Town had a better defensive record. At their University of Bolton Stadium home, the Trotters total of just 13 conceded is the joint best in League One, a testament to the quality that James Trafford, George Johnston, Ricardo Santos and Eoin Toal show when forming that Bolton backline.
Barnsley in turn have a strong defensive structure of their own, even if Mads Andersen isn’t available to be part of it. The Tykes have conceded just over a goal a game on average this season, though have only kept one clean sheet on the road since mid-March. Michael Duff’s are capable of adopting a gung-ho approach, but could likely deploy that in the second leg at Oakwell after restricting Bolton’s opportunities up in the northwest. The Tykes would rather not go through their last away game again where they conceded four in the second half at Milton Keynes Dons and were thankfully able to rescue a point from being 4-1 down.
There likely could be little in this match up in Horwich with a low-scoring affair leaving things tightly poised ahead of the second leg in South Yorkshire.
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Prediction: Kyle Dempsey to have 1+ Shots On Target
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Odds: 2.38
27-year-old Kyle Dempsey was a smart signing by Bolton Wanderers. He joined the Trotters midway through the 2021-22 season after impressing with then-League One side Gillingham. Dempsey has enjoyed a productive 2022-23 with six goals and three assists in all competitions, including a stellar showing during Bolton’s 4-0 Wembley demolition of Plymouth Argyle in the EFL Trophy Final.
The Cumbria-born midfielder typically operates in the attacking midfield role of Bolton Wanderers’ 3-4-1-2. Tasked with breaching robust backlines, Dempsey is a regular supplier of shots for the Trotters, averaging 1.6 shots per 90 from midfield. Only top scorer Dion Charles averages more among the active players who have played 1000+ Bolton minutes this season. It has been an almost equal split this campaign for Dempsey between shots outside of the penalty area and shots inside the penalty area. If space inside the box is restricted,
Dempsey is the prime candidate to carry the ball to the edge of the box and rifle a shot through the crowd which tests or beats the opposition goalkeeper. If Bolton get the opportunity to work their intricate passages of play inside the final third, Dempsey is often the prime candidate for a first time shot inside the box from a low cutback.
Bolton Wanderers may find Barnsley hard to breach this Saturday at the University of Bolton Stadium, and it is in situations like that where you turn to Kyle Dempsey and ask him to do his thing.
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Notts County v Chesterfield
National League Play-off Final
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Kick Off: 15:30
Wembley will play host to a mouthwatering National League play-off final clash as local rivals Notts County and Chesterfield face off in a bid to return to the more familiar world of the Football League after overstaying their welcome in non-league.
Both Luke Williams and Paul Cook lead battle-hardened sides onto one of the grandest stages in world football, evidenced by victories after bruising semi-final encounters that went to extra-time. Now they meet with each other for another gruelling clash and there are no second chances – there will be a winner by the time the final whistle blows.
It’s the National League play-off final and it would crazy not to bring you a Notts County v Chesterfield bet builder. We have broken down the game, the form, the likely teams and provide a bet builder worth odds of 3.5/1.
Record Breaking Notts Looking to Make History
Notts County are record breakers. No National League side has ever scored more goals. No National League side has ever finished the league campaign with a bigger goal difference. No National League side has ever lost fewer games. And yet, they finished second, the Hollywood-owned Wrexham pipping them to the title in dramatic fashion having broken a number of records of their own.
They remain in the play-offs having come from two-nil down to beat Boreham Wood, scoring in injury time of normal and extra time to banish the ghosts of their loss against Grimsby Town in last year’s play-offs. Despite their loss against Wrexham in what was billed as the biggest National League match ever, Notts ended the season in great form, winning seven of their last ten and scoring three or more goals in nine of their final 15.
When it comes to players to watch, it’s hard to look past National League Player of the Year Macaulay Langstaff, who plundered home an incredible 41 goals despite not taking a single penalty, and Portuguese wizard Ruben Rodrigues, who scored 13 in his final 24 matches and managed over 30 goal contributions across the campaign.
Chesterfield Finished Strongly Ahead of Play-off Campaign
It’s been a funny old season for Chesterfield. The exceptional performance of both Notts County and Wrexham has left their season feeling a little underwhelming in comparison, especially given they finished 23 points behind Notts, a record difference for second and third in the National League.
And yet, given the extreme player turnover last summer, the Spireites finishing third having accrued 84 points is good going – that’s just five fewer than Wrexham managed in the first year of their rise under new ownership and a very experienced manager, which stands Chesterfield in good stead.
Chesterfield’s season was ultimately defined by two lengthy runs without a victory, losing three in a week back in early October then going on a nine-match winless run through February. However, they finished the season strongly, winning nine of their final 13 while averaging just shy of a 2xG average to secure third spot and a bye into the play-off semi-final.
Key to their form improvement has been the arrivals of Ryan Colclough and Andrew Dallas who have given the team a lease of life at an important point, chipping in with 13 goals between them from the end of February onwards.
Team News
Notts County Team News
Notts County came through their semi-final with Boreham Wood without any hiccups as far as injuries go so Luke Williams will have the option to name the same starting XI that he named for the Magpies’ final league game and semi-final.
It’s a change of tact for the ex-Swindon Town boss who has been happy to chop and change in a bid to keep players fresh and provide opportunities. The most likely change, if one is made, would be Cedwyn Scott, who scored 15 goals in just over 2.5 90’s, or match-winner Jodi Jones replacing Sam Austin in the front three.
The Magpies play with total control and their favourite avenues for attack are slipping Aaron Nemane in behind the opposition full-back and Rodrigues and Austin finding the feet of Langstaff inside the area. The front three are prime for opportunities and worth a look for your bet builder.
Chesterfield Team News
Assistant Manager Danny Webb says that Chesterfield are “all good” as far as injuries go, referencing that “aches and pains are just that” and the only point of discussion is Akwasi Asante who he says has probably missed too much football to be called back in at this point.
Paul Cook is famously a disciple of 4-2-3-1 and despite openly confessing to having reservations about the balance of his team, he has stuck rigidly to that formation, recently settling on a high energy version of the system led by the diminutive Andrew Dallas over target men Paul McCallum and Joe Quigley.
In both league fixtures against Notts County, Cook set his side up to press high and centrally, looking to capitalise on any loose passes and transition quickly by moving in behind – John Bostock’s mistake against Boreham Wood will be fresh in the mind. I’ll be backing both teams to score and you can pick Dallas to score anytime at 3.2, right-winger Liam Mandeville is 4.5 and left-winger Ryan Colclough is available at 5’s.
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Prediction: Notts County Double Chance
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Odds: 1.30
It’s hard not to back Notts County. They’ve been the best team in the league as far as underlying metrics go and have proven time and again that they have the mental qualities to grind out results when they have to, as proven by their semi-final victory.
What Notts have that Chesterfield don’t is the stability and togetherness that comes from years of building towards a goal, the alignment of Notts’ process coming to fruition beautifully in a season where they have amassed 107 points, scored in all but one match played and possess match winners from all areas of the pitch.
I fancy Notts to get the job done on the day but they could possible be pushed all the way to 120 mins or pens. Double chance gives us that safety net at Wembley.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score
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Odds: 1.50
National League play-off finals are often spectacular events and both teams scoring in eight of the last nine proves as much. I expect this to be no different.
Notts County and Chesterfield both like to play on the front foot, which opens opportunities at either end. Both teams have scored in over 60% of their matches this season, both of their semi-finals finished 2-2 after 90 minutes and the games between each other finished 2-1 and 2-2.
Notts will be the side in the ascendancy here – they have seen both teams score in 14 of their last 19 matches and in ten of their 12 matches against fellow top seven opposition.
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Prediction: Macaulay Langstaff Anytime Goalscorer
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Odds: 1.91
To complete our Notts County v Chesterfield Bet Builder tips, we are backing the man with 41 goals to score one more and cement his place as a legend of the non-league game.
Langstaff scored the winner against Wrexham, he has scored three goals in two matches against Chesterfield and though he didn’t score in the semi-final, he came close with two curling efforts and a snapshot. Chesterfield are a side that give up chances and they conceded poacher’s goals to Bromley forwards Adam Marriott and Michael Cheek in their semi-final. Langstaff will get opportunities here.
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Sunderland v Luton
Championship Play-off Semi Final
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Kick Off: 17:30
Sunderland v Luton Cheat Sheet
The Stadium of Light is going to be absolutely buzzing at it’s 48,000 capacity for this match. Indeed, there is real debate to be had as to whether more noise will be made in the 90+ minutes of this playoff semi-final or Beyonce’s concert in the same venue the following week.
Both of these sides played in playoff campaigns last season, with many of the same players still in the respective squads. This may mean that we see a little less of the cageyness that is typical for these first legs.
History is against seeing much in the way of excitement in the opening 90 minutes of the tie. However, if any venue and team can find a way of breaking the trends then it could be the Stadium of Light and Tony Mowbray’s Sunderland.
The Sunderland vs Millwall Bet Builder Tips make an over 5/2 shot that feels eminently achievable.
Sunderland Supporters in Dreamland
The Black Cats were outsiders to even reach the playoffs this time last week. They required a final day win at Preston coupled with a Blackburn win at Millwall to get into sixth position.
Sixth position in the Championship hasn’t been converted into a successful promotion since Blackpool in 2010, and indeed only two sixth-placed finishers have reached the final in the last decade.
Sunderland, however, have successful playoff experience only last year, and many of their current players were key to that success then. Jack Clarke, Patrick Roberts, Alex Pritchard, Dan Neil, Luke O’Nien, Dennis Cirkin, Lynden Gooch, and Anthony Patterson are all players that could be involved on Saturday that played a part in their successful playoff campaign in 2022.
Despite breaking into the playoffs, Sunderland’s home form doesn’t read all that well, Only one win in their last seven at home, however, the Black Cats have won the xG battle in each of the last five. The chances are being created, but the finishing touch isn’t quite there for them.
Luton’s Long Unbeaten Run
Rob Edwards has done a magnificent job since taking the reigns following Nathan Jones’ departure earlier in the season. Many thought that Luton may drop away after the change, but, if anything, they have improved.
In the early part of the season Luton were something of a statistical anomaly. They were picking up at a decent rate, but actually performance data suggested that they were a mid-table side at best.
This changed throughout the season. Their ability in both boxes is one of the best in the league, and the midfield play has improved to an extent that Luton are no capable of playing in different styles as the game calls for.
The playing staff are intensely physical. From Carlton Morris and Elijah Adebayo up front to Sonny Bradley and Tom Lockyer in defence, Luton possess stength, power and a fair bit of pace to make outbattling them or outrunning them a virtual impossibility.
Their away form coming into this match is excellent. No defeats in their last ten and every single one of the matches coming in under 2.5 goals as well.
Team News
Sunderland Team News
It has been a really rocky season for Sunderland with injuries. They have had problems with player availability in the key positions of centre forward and in central defence.
There will be precious few solutions available for Mowbray either as it seems that some possible replacements may be losing their battle for fitness.
This means that there could be a first start in the season for Joe Anderson, which would be quite the baptism of fire. Luke O’Nien will undoubtedly be somewhere in the back line as well, with possible Trai Hume and Lynden Gooch, if the latter is fit.
The good news though is that all of the potential match-winners look to be available. Amad Diallo, Patrick Roberts, Jack Clarke, Joe Gelhardt are likely to start as the front four.
Luton Team News
Edwards is likely to line up in a 3-4-3 formation. Ethan Horvath will be the goalkeeper and Lockyer, Bradley, and Amari’i Bell should be the first line of defence.
Cody Drameh and Alfie Doughty are key for Luton as they will provide the width for the front two of Morris and Adebayo.
The only real question mark is in midfield. Luke Berry has been starting a few games but now Allan Campbell and Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu are pushing him for a starting role.
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals
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Odds: 1.57
A lot of the research for this bet comes in the EFL Championship Playoff bible.
The last six years of Championship playoff first leg matches saw only 18 goals between them, an average of 1.5. With no away goals rule in the EFL playoffs most teams and managers do seem to think of this as one 180 minute game. With that theory in mind, the first half or goals is usually more conservative than the second half.
There are rare occasions where a team gets blown away but that hasn’t been seen for some time and it feels far-fatched to happen here as well.
It was mentioned in passing above that whilst Luton are unbeaten in many away games, none of them have gone above 2.5 goals either. This form matches then with the research of first legs also going under 2.5, nine out of the last twelve first legs were under 2.5 goals.
Sunderland’s home record does suggest slightly more goals. Over 2.5 goals has landed in half of their last ten, but it is not overwhelming when faced with greater evidence on the other side.
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Prediction: Jack Clarke to have 2+ Shots
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Odds: 1.36
Clarke is going to be a key figure for Sunderland in this tie. He is one of the main goal threats, but also a good man to break the defence in the first place with his ball-carrying ability.
One of the archetypal Clarke moves is to come inside from the left and take a strike at goal. On one hand it is good to have a move like that in the arsenal but Rob Edwards and Luton will be prepared for that and probably will have planned for it.
Clarke should still be able to get off enough shots though. Knowing his gameplan fairly well hasn’t seemed to have helped many other opponents.
The recent shot count of Clarke have shown that he is getting into better shooting positions. His average across the season is only 0.94 shots per 90 minutes, but has made 3,2,2,2 in his most recent four matches.
With no dominating central forward it has given the Sunderland attacking midfielders more licence to shoot and Clarke is taking advantage of that.
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Prediction: Elijah Adebayo to commit 2+ Fouls
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Original Odds: 1.53
Adebayo is a key player for Luton, not just in terms of goals and assists, but the way he runs the channels, pressurises defenders and his aerial ability as well.
These are all also attributes which mark him out well for fouling opponents. Adebayo gets involved in a lot of duels and physical contact, which often leads to him being high up on the foul count.
Indeed, he is actually favourite in this market for multiple fouls, but the current price is still a touch of value. Adebayo averages 1.99 fouls per 90, and indeed, his last six starts have seen 2,1,3,2,3,4 fouls be committed by the forward. Additionally, he also committed 2 fouls in the most recent league fixture between these two sides.
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Salford City v Stockport County
League 2 Play-off Semi Final
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Kick Off: 19:45
Salford City v Stockport County Cheat Sheet
Finally Getting Things Right
When Salford City first arrived into the EFL back in 2019, there was an element of naivety to them, a belief that they could essentially continue with their non-league approach of bringing in big names and seeing that superior quality take them over the line. Their four Football League seasons have seen Salford learn an appreciation for the value of continuity and enhancement when it comes to recruitment of players. Whether people have the same feelings about their treatment of managers though is up for debate.
In Neil Wood however, Salford City have found a man who fits the bill of Project 92 Limited’s vision. The Mancunian joined in the summer following years of youth level coaching with Aston Villa and then Manchester United, and have developed a proactive, possession-based approach into a strong Salford City squad.
The Ammies did secure a play-off spot on final day by the barest of margins, one more Mansfield Town goal would have seen the miss out, but they are in these post season games now and on the verge of League One football for the first time in their history.
A Case of Playing Catch Up
Expectations were high of Stockport County upon their long-awaited return to the EFL this season. A club now well-backed has aspirations of Championship football later into this decade, and the Hatters’ strong squad under a very impressive manager were marked early as one of the favourites to win automatic promotion in League Two.
Stockport County however have been a slow burner in 2022-23. A frustrating start to the season saw Dave Challinor take time to find the right system and personnel for attacking matches. Once found however at the start of October, Stockport began to churn out all of the right numbers and quickly climbed up the division, entering the play-off places at the start of February and going into the final day still with an outside chance of pinching automatic promotion away from Northampton Town. Had the Hatters clicked from the word go this season, they could well have already had League One football secured and given Leyton Orient a run for their money in the League Two title race. Stockport County at their best are one of the finest forces in the entire division, and they’ll be looking to make their threat count in these play-offs.
Team News
Salford City Team News
All being well, Salford City should line up with their standard starting eleven against Stockport County. Ryan Leak may be preferred to Theo Vassell at centre-back though, Matty Lund may feature alongside Elliot Watt in deeper midfield instead of Stevie Mallan. Wood has rotated between Louie Barry and Conor McAleny on the left side of his 4-2-3-1 set-up. The former has currently been preferred most.
Expect Callum Hendry to operate behind the towering presence of Matt Smith, with lightning winger Luke Bolton out on the right. Club icon Ibou Touray has been near ever-present at left-back. Liam Shephard has recovered from months out of action and looks the starting right-back now ahead of Shane McLoughlin. Midfielder Ryan Watson and defender Richard Nartey remain out of action with injury.
Stockport County Team News
Dave Challinor has riches to pick from when choosing his starting eleven for these play-off games. Club stalwart Ben Hinchliffe should retain his place in goal. Joe Lewis has recently returned to fitness and played alongside Fraser Horsfall and Akil Wright on the left side of the back three. Neill Byrne is an alternative who can go there, likewise Chris Hussey who has recently been preferred at left-wing-back with his deliveries. Ryan Rydel or midfielder Myles Hippolyte have filled Hussey’s role in the past. Any of Hippolyte, Will Collar, Callum Camps, Jacob Davenport or Connor Lemonheigh-Evans could play in midfield ahead of the more disciplined Ryan Croasdale. A long-term injury to Macaulay Southam-Hales has presented the opportunity for Kyle Knoyle to make the right-wing-back spot his own.
Top scorer Kyle Wootton is sadly out for the rest of the season, but that will not hold Stockport back as any of Paddy Madden, Isaac Olaofe and Jack Stretton can form the frontline in the Hatters’ attacking 3-5-2 set-up.
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Prediction: Stockport County Double Chance
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Odds: 1.36
Had Stockport gelled quicker at the start of the season, they wouldn’t have been needing these play-offs. Once Dave Challinor found the right system, Stockport started to hit the numbers that were better than any other fourth tier side, an outstanding attacking outfit that was coupled with impressive defensive solidity. The Hatters tally of 37 conceded is only bettered by Champions Leyton Orient, and a stark contrast to Salford City’s total of 54 conceded in 46 matches.
Challinor’s side will not the fear the prospect of an away trip in the first leg. Not only is the Peninsula Stadium a ground which typically lacks any sort of loud, intimidating atmosphere, it is a venue that Salford have not impressed at this season. 35 points from 23 home games leaves the Ammies 14th in the League Two home table, it is a strong away record which has seen them over the line ahead of Mansfield Town. Salford have only beaten recently relegated Hartlepool United in their last four home games, losing the others against Leyton Orient, Colchester United and Gillingham without even scoring.
Stockport have been a superior outfit to Salford City for the latter part of this season and should be looking to take advantage of this tie in the first leg. At the very least, that solid defence should be able to keep an unflattering home side out even if their attack proves wasteful on the night. A Salford City home win would be a pleasant surprise given their recent record at Moor Lane.
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Prediction: Callum Hendry to have 1+ Shots on Target
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Odds: 1.53
If Salford City are to damage Stockport County, they will turn to their number nine, normally operating in attacking midfield behind Matt Smith. Callum Hendry is in fine form heading into these play-offs, having scored nine goals across his last 14 appearances. It is form that has been well overdue for the 25-year-old. Only three players have taken more shots in League Two this season than Hendry, plenty of them coming in good positions inside the penalty area. Up until recently, he wasn’t getting the goal output expected from someone regularly taking up such good positions. He certainly is now though, and all three of Salford’s recent dramatic wins on the road have seen him take a key role.
Hendry dominates the shot data for Salford City, averaging 3.6 shots per 90 and having the majority of those come from within 18 yards of goal. His total of 113 attempts this season is 42 more than striker Matt Smith, the next highest on the list for the Ammies. Playing in that freer role off the frontline benefits the Scot with his positioning and movement, and he is a player who Stockport need to keep quiet if they are to emerge from Moor Lane with a first leg victory.
Callum Hendry will be aiming to test Hatters goalkeeper Ben Hinchliffe on as many occasions as possible on Saturday evening…
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score – No
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Odds: 1.85
Following on from the first pick, Stockport County have the capability to keep Salford City near silent in this first leg. Fraser Horsfall was a high calibre summer signing from Northampton Town and has shown his worth as a commanding presence in the centre of the back three. Akil Wright, playing sixth tier football with York City 12 months ago, has been an underrated part of the defence, operating in a wide role where he is encouraged to be proactive in possession and demonstrate his capabilities as both a defender and a midfielder.
Whether Stockport score past Salford City at the Peninsula Stadium remains to be seen; the frontline has at times been wasteful with the many opportunities presented their way. Challinor will at the very least want the clean sheet though, and the Hatters backline should be able to collect one. Ben Hinchliffe remains an impressive presence between the posts. If Salford go switch to plan B and use Matt Smith as a focal point, Fraser Horsfall has it in him to compete with the giant striker.
Stockport’s front-footed approach can in turn bring into the play the old ‘attack is the best form of defence’ cliché. Keep Salford boxed into their own half and own third and Ben could well have a quiet night in the Stockport goal.
Are there are to be goals in this first leg, they are likely to only come one way.
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Written by an Andy verified content writer
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