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Leeds weren’t the most convincing against Birmingham City in the FA Cup last time out, but the Premier League side were able to scramble away with a positive result, after prevailing on penalties. Leeds have proven themselves to be a resilient side over the last few months, and they have only lost two of their last 15 matches across all competitions. BTTS has landed in 12 of those games. 

Daniel Farke’s men have been good at picking up points on their travels, and getting on the scoresheet. In fact, the last time they failed to score in an away game was against Liverpool at Anfield on New Year's Day. 

Although they face a tough test against Aston Villa here, it is worth noting that Unai Emery’s men have only kept one clean sheet in their last eight home matches across all competitions.

With that being said, Aston Villa have won five matches in that stretch, highlighting just how effective they have been going forward. The Villans come into this clash as favourites, and they are still battling at the top of the Premier League standings, three points behind Man City, and seven off Arsenal. 

Villa rank top of the charts for total fouls drawn this season in the top-flight, and their opponents have also picked up the most yellow cards. They are drawing an average of 2.6 cards per game at Villa Park this season in the league, and this selection has landed in each of their last 10 games. 

Leeds haven’t been a particularly aggressive side when it comes to picking up cards, but they were given four yellow cards in the reverse fixture when the sides met at Elland Road in November.

Jayden Bogle has been a key player under Daniel Farke this season and has made 24 Premier League appearances. He has only scored one goal in that time, but it came recently against Nottingham Forest, as Leeds won 3-1.

In Leeds’ next game against Chelsea, Bogle operated in a more advanced role than usual - playing on the right wing. Although he didn’t register a shot in that match, he did play a key role in both of his sides’ goals, winning the penalty which Nmecha converted, while also confusing the back which allowed Noah Okafor to tap home. 

Okafor had to be substituted against Birmingham last time out, while Anton Stach is also injured. That means Bogle should continue in a more advanced position, and this shot price stands out. Bogle again played more advanced at the weekend, and he registered one shot in a 38-minute cameo. 

Lukas Nmecha found the back of the net against Birmingham last weekend, meaning he has now scored in back-to-back starts.

The 27-year-old converted his penalty against Chelsea in the previous game. Dominic Calvert-Lewin made an appearance off the bench against Birmingham, but he has been nursing an injury recently and is unlikely to be rushed back into the starting eleven. Nmecha comes into this game in good goalscoring form, and he bagged the only goal for Leeds in the reverse fixture against Villa at Elland Road, so should keep his spot up front. 

The German international is a traditional centre forward, looking to be a physical presence and a nightmare for defenders to play against. He has accrued four fouls in his last two starts, and is averaging 1.69 fouls per 90 this season. He should find duels against Ezri Konsa here, who is drawing an average of 1.39 fouls per 90 this season.

Rogers is the clear standout for Villa. He’s now on 17 goal involvements this season, split between 10 goals and seven assists, effective at both creating and finishing chances.

Leeds have one of the leakiest defences in the league, conceding the 3rd-most goals (45), while Villa come in as odds-on favourites.

Before the Newcastle game, he’d registered a shot on target in nine consecutive matches. He should get chances here — Leeds concede an average of 4.19 shots on target per 90.

Rogers scored twice the last time he faced Leeds.

I’m on it personally.