Julian Alvarez has been a consistent performer for Atletico Madrid this season, contributing in the quarter finals with a brilliant free kick against Barcelona in the first leg - also managing to find the target in the second leg as Atletico battled to knock out Hansi Flick’s side. 

Alvarez is still a bit underrated and under-appreciated in my opinion, he’s a brilliant striker and has netted 17+ goals across all competitions in each of the last six seasons across spells at Atletico Madrid, Manchester City and River Plate. He’s currently on 19 goals for the season, nine of which have come across 13 starts in the Champions League.

This is actually one more goal than Alvarez has scored in LaLiga this term, despite making nearly double the number of appearances domestically. This tells us that Alvarez comes alive in these competitions, he’s taken 39 shots across these appearances in the Champions League (3.20 per 90), seeing 20 of these efforts find the target (1.64 per 90). 

Alvarez had three shots when these sides met earlier in the campaign, and was very unlucky not to find the target with one of these efforts coming back off the crossbar just after half time.

Martin Zubimendi committed two fouls and was shown a yellow card when these sides met earlier in the season, and sees a significant rise in his foul numbers when playing in the Champions League compared to the Premier League.

Zubimendi has committed 17 goals across his 10 starts in the Champions League this season (1.78 per 90), which is a significant rise on the 0.95 fouls committed per 90 he’s averaging in the Premier League - which is still a decent foul output for a side as dominant as Arsenal and suggests that Zubimendi will get involved in the midfield battle here. 

He’s attracted some criticism of late due to mistakes and being a bit slow to react to developing situations, but I think this is more down to fatigue rather than Zubimendi’s quality - he’s been playing in that role without any real backup due to Arteta’s reluctance to use Christian Norgaard unless it’s in cup competitions.

Atletico Madrid have scored in each of their last 17 matches across all competitions, a run that stretches all the way back to the 15th February - when they lost 3-0 to Rayo Vallecano on the road. They’ve played Barcelona four times in this period, as well as Tottenham twice and Real Madrid, so Atletico do have significant quality in the final third that can hurt Arsenal.

This campaign means a lot to Diego Simeone, you wouldn’t be able to tell because his demeanor on the side of the pitch hasn’t changed that much from his usual frantic nature. It’s important because this will be Simeone’s last chance to win the Champions League at Atletico Madrid - the only trophy he’s missing from his illustrious career as Atletico Madrid manager.

Arsenal started the season with one of the best defensive units I’ve probably ever seen, but this hasn’t maintained throughout the campaign and they’re a tad more vulnerable at the back now. They were lucky to keep a clean sheet against Newcastle at the Emirates last time out, with the Magpies registering an xG of 1.00 from 13 shots - and have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five away matches across all competitions.

Only Liverpool (79) have won more corners in the Champions League this season than Atletico Madrid (77). This works out to an average of 5.50 corners per game, which rises to 5.86 corners per game when Atletico play in front of their own supporters.

Atletico Madrid racked up four corners when these sides met in the league phase of the campaign. That was when Arsenal were at their best and didn’t have the pressure of a tight title race and being in the semi-finals of the Champions League - but Atletico still managed to cover this corner line and I think they can do it again in this clash.

Arsenal are conceding 3.08 corners per game in the Champions League this term, but this record isn’t as solid as the average suggests. Context tells us that this Arsenal side is a bit vulnerable at the moment and doesn’t do well under pressure, allowing Atletico Madrid to register at least four corners in this assignment, coming in under their average for the season. 

Martinelli found the back of the net when these sides met earlier in the season, with Arsenal coming away 4-0 winners on that occasion from 19 shots and an xG of 2.19. Martinelli becomes a different player in the Champions League, which is actually a trend we’ve seen for quite a few Premier League wingers this term.

Anthony Gordon noted earlier in the season how much he prefers playing in the Champions League compared to the Premier League due to the extra space that wingers are afforded. In the Premier League, wingers have almost become obsolete due to how sides double up on the widemen and kick them even if they do manage to find a way past the double man marking.

This isn’t as prevalent in the Champions League, and we can see that through Martinelli’s underlying numbers. He’s registered eight goal contributions across just six starts in the Champions League this season - double his tally in the Premier League across 10 starts. He’s averaging 2.76 shots per 90, and creating 2.46 chances per 90 - which are really standout numbers, and suggests that Martinelli could be Arsenal’s man in the Champions League this season.

Robin Le Normand and Jose Gimenez really struggled to contain Viktor Gyokeres in the initial league meeting between these sides, committing four fouls between them - three of which were committed by Robin Le Normand.

Both centre backs were booked in that game, with Gyokeres fouled four times in the contest. Le Normand has always been an aggressive centre back, he was cautioned more often when he was at Real Sociedad, but still has a decent card and foul record for Atletico Madrid and his struggles against Gyokeres in the meeting a few months back suggests that he will have a decent chance of picking up a yellow card here.

Le Normand has picked up two yellow cards across his eight starts in the Champions League this term, as well as three yellow cards across his 15 starts in LaLiga. He’s also picked up two yellow cards in his last 10 appearances for Atletico Madrid across all competitions, indicating that Le Normand will put in a few challenges to pick up a caution against an awkward forward in Viktor Gyokeres.

Gabriel scored from three shots when these sides met earlier in the campaign, meaning that all three of the angles we’re taking for our 25/1 longshot landed in the most recent head to head meeting between the sides.

Gabriel is so effective from corners and other set piece situations, I think he’s actually the main reason as to why Arsenal have leaned on this route so heavily in recent years - there aren’t many centre backs better than Gabriel at attacking space from a set piece. It’s incredible how often he’s able to lose his marker, despite everyone being aware how much of a threat he is from these situations.

That goal was one of seven shots that Gabriel has had in the Champions League this season (0.90 per 90), which is more than a solid record for a centre back. He’s also pitched in with three goals in the Premier League this term, from 21 shots overall (0.78 per 90), the majority of which have come from headed efforts (0.48 per 90).