Chelsea have struggled in the final third across their recent matches under Rosenior, but I think they’ll be able to get on the scoresheet against a Brighton side that takes plenty of risks. Chelsea fell to a 3-1 defeat to Brighton when these sides met earlier in the season, though did go down to 10 men in the early stages of the second half in that defeat.

Brighton drew 2-2 with Tottenham on the road last time out, deepening concerns about Roberto De Zerbi’s side facing the drop this campaign. Brighton have seen 41 goals across their 16 matches at the Amex Stadium this season (2.56 per game), losing only three of these matches, so this will be a complicated task for the Blues who can’t really drop more points here if they want to push on for any kind of European football next season.

Chelsea have only kept four clean sheets across their 22 matches under Liam Rosenior. These have been cheaply earned shutouts as well against the likes of Pafos, Brentford, Hull and Port Vale - suggesting that there are real defensive problems at Chelsea. They are without their best two centre backs in Chalobah and Colwill, as well as Reece James.

Chelsea have struggled to take their chances from open play this season - no side has produced a higher xG than the Blues this term (62.0), but Chelsea are underperforming on this tally by nine goals, which is an issue that has been recurring over the last few seasons.

This was also evident in their 1-0 defeat to Man United at Stamford Bridge last time out. Chelsea had 21 shots in the game but never really looked like scoring, aside from a couple of headers that hit the bar. This underperformance usually results in Chelsea having a decent corner count, as they do get into dangerous areas in the final third, just failing to actually make this territory count.

Chelsea racked up seven corners against United last time out, and won five corners when these sides met earlier in the season - despite going down to 10 men in that game. Chelsea are averaging 5.44 corners per game across their away matches in the Premier League this term.

Palmer is clearly not at his best right now, potentially even throwing into question his spot on the plane to the World Cup in the summer, but he’s still taking plenty of efforts. He had four shots against Man United last time out, taking his overall tally for the season to 53 shots across 20 starts (2.97 per 90).

Palmer has scored nine goals from these efforts, which looks not too bad on paper, but five of these goals have been penalties, meaning that Joao Pedro, Enzo Fernandez and Pedro Neto have all bettered his tally from open play in the Premier League this season (4). I still think Palmer has plenty to offer, it just may not be at Chelsea, with the constant turbulence surrounding the club seeming to eat away at him more week on week.

Palmer didn’t feature when these sides met earlier in the season, but Chelsea managed 13 shots despite going down to 10 men early on in the second half. Brighton will look to be quite positive here, so Chelsea should get opportunities again to register a decent shot count.

Only Lewis Dunk (10) and Diego Gomez (9) have picked up more yellow cards for Brighton in the Premier League this season than Van Hecke (8). Brighton have also picked up the joint most cards of any Premier League side (81), as well as ranking second in the division for fouls (12.1 per game).

Three of Brighton’s back four were booked on their trip to Stamford Bridge earlier in the season, with Van Hecke being part of this trio for committing two fouls in the contest. The reason that Brighton’s defenders sit so high in their card stats is because of the high line that Fabian Hurzeler likes to play, often forcing his defenders to make tactical or last ditch challenges.

Van Hecke is reportedly being monitored by Chelsea at the moment for a potential summer move as well, in what would be the latest bit of business between the two clubs, who have grown very familiar with each other over the last few transfer windows. He should be in a battle with Liam Delap as Joao Pedro has picked up a small injury, that will be a battle to keep an eye on, and I can see both players committing a few fouls in the contest. 

Mats Wieffer is so aggressive, he was very lucky to avoid a red card in Brighton’s game against Tottenham last time out, with the Dutchman committing three fouls and picking up a yellow card. All three of these fouls were on Xavi Simons, and Wieffer was also fouled four times himself - suggesting that we can expect his side of the pitch to be just as active here.

Wieffer is a bit clumsy with his challenges because his positioning can be a bit off. Brighton signed Wieffer as a holding midfielder, but Hurzeler has turned him into an inverted fullback. He struggles with defensive positioning at times as he’s not completely comfortable in the role when Brighton are out of possession, but does offer them quite a lot when Brighton have the ball, and can create overloads in central areas.

Wieffer has committed 29 fouls across just 20 starts in the Premier League this season (1.49 per 90), with this foul rate leading to eight yellow cards - only Lewis Dunk and Diego Gomez have picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League for Brighton than Wieffer. Brighton committed 16 fouls when these sides met at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season, with Wieffer committing two fouls and picking up a yellow card from the bench.

Liam Delap has received some very harsh criticism this season, most of it due to his bullish nature, which many have put down to clumsiness - but it’s the entire reason that Chelsea were attracted to his signing in the first place.

I thought Delap did ok in Chelsea’s 1-0 defeat to Man United last time out, he committed two fouls in the game and was fouled twice himself. Despite not getting on the scoresheet as frequently as he would have liked to for Chelsea this season, he’s still offered a presence at the top end of the pitch and should get in plenty of duels with Van Hecke and Boscagli here.

Delap has committed 20 fouls across 10 starts in the Premier League this season (2.02 per 90) and maintained an average of 2.48 fouls committed per 90 for Ipswich, also picking up 12 yellow cards last campaign.

Danny Welbeck is enjoying his best ever scoring season in the Premier League at the age of 35, having netted 12 goals across his 22 starts in the Premier League this term. He’s been incredibly clinical across these games, scoring with every other shot on target he’s had (24 - 1.09 per 90).

He’s also got a stellar record against Chelsea for Brighton, having registered seven goal contributions across his last eight appearances against the Blues across all competitions. This run includes scoring twice at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season, as Brighton registered a 3-1 win over Chelsea.

I expect Brighton to get plenty of chances here, Chelsea have only kept four clean sheets across the 22 games that Rosenior has been in the dugout for, highlighting a defensive vulnerability which is unlikely to go away anytime soon.