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Burnley finally secured their first league win since October by beating Crystal Palace, but they were unable to build on that momentum and suffered a damaging FA Cup defeat against League One side Macclesfield Town last time out. Despite taking the lead after 21 minutes, Burnley went on to lose 2-1, which was a significant cup upset.

Even in their victory over Crystal Palace, the underlying numbers were not particularly great for Burnley. They scored three goals from just eight shots worth 0.53 xG, while Palace created 21 attempts worth 1.8 xG and were unfortunate to only score once. 

Chelsea are likely to be much more efficient in the final third, and they recently brushed Hull City aside with a 4-0 win last weekend. They have now won nine of their last 12 matches in all competitions, with the only losses in that run coming against Arsenal in the EFL Cup.

Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea have looked strong in recent weeks, and they will look to replicate their performance in the reverse fixture against Burnley. That game finished 2-0, and Chelsea were firmly in the driving seat throughout. 

The Blues recorded 15 shots worth 1.72 xG, while conceding just 0.44 xG in return. They managed nine corners to Burnley’s one, and were able to sustain pressure with ease and play most of the game in their attacking third. 

Chelsea are averaging 5.61 corners per game across all competitions this season, rising notably to 7.11 at Stamford Bridge. They have been adept at controlling games, and will hope to press home their advantage against Burnley, especially considering the Clarets are conceding 6.23 corners per game on their travels.

They conceded eight corners against Crystal Palace in their last league match.

Enzo Fernandez was on the scoresheet at Turf Moor in the reverse fixture, as he registered two shots in total, despite playing in a deeper midfield role. Moises Caicedo was on the bench for that game, as he had recently returned from international duty, but Enzo Fernandez was still comfortably able to land this selection. 

When Chelsea dominate proceedings, Enzo Fernandez often looks to arrive in the box to create overloads. Especially when Caicedo plays, Enzo seems to be a lot more willing to push into promising positions, which should be the case here. 

Enzo only featured from the bench against Hull last time out, but before that, he had landed this selection in each of his last six starts, with three goals in that time. He is averaging 2.18 shots per 90 this season in the Premier League, with 42% of those hitting the target, highlighting how his chances tend to be high-quality.

Cole Palmer was another absentee for Chelsea in the reverse fixture, but he looks set to play in an advanced midfield position here, after recovering from injury. Palmer appears to be operating at full fitness again - he scored against Leeds last time out, after he bagged a first-half hat-trick against Wolves at Molineux. 

Palmer didn’t draw a foul in that game against Wolves, but the game lacked competitiveness, and Palmer was withdrawn after 61 minutes. The Englishman did land this bet against Leeds in his last league game, though, drawing three fouls and playing the full 90. 

Joao Pedro was fouled twice in the reverse fixture when playing in a similar advanced midfield role, and Palmer is averaging 1.78 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season. That rises to 2.12 at Stamford Bridge, with this selection landing in each of his last four starts.

Cole Palmer (Pen), as he has become known over the last few weeks, seems to be back in full flow for the Blues, and looks sure to continue his comeback, given it has been 11 days since he last stepped on the pitch, and it will be a further eight after this one until he does again. Palmer has scored five times in his last five games, three of which have come from the penalty spot. He also missed an open net in the dying second of Chelsea’s draw with Leeds, which is probably still haunting him at the moment.

The usual Stamford Bridge fortress has not come to fruition this season, as Chelsea have failed to win more than they have won on home turf, but they don’t often get to play against a side who have conceded 32 goals in 13 games away from home, but that is what they have on Saturday when Burnley limp into town following an FA Cup exit to League One Mansfield Town last weekend.

Palmer is officially back. He’s recorded a goal or assist in three of his last four starts, including a goal and assist in his last game (vs Leeds). Before that, he scored a hat-trick in just 38 minutes against Wolves.

He looks back to his best and didn’t feature in the FA Cup, so he’ll come in fully charged off the back of two Man of the Match performances.

Even in a 45-minute stint away to Napoli he managed two assists, and prior to that he scored at home against Brentford. He now faces a Burnley side, with Chelsea massive odds-on favourites, priced at 1.18 to take all three points.

Huge fan of Palmer, so I’m on this.