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ABC Tips
Chelsea v Nottingham Forest Bet Builder 🧱 @ 4.14
Joao Pedro should have really scored in Chelsea’s 1-0 win over Leeds in the FA Cup semi-final last time out, striking the post with one of his two efforts on goal and being crowded out in another opening where he should have pulled the trigger a lot earlier than he did, allowing the Leeds defenders to get back and make the appropriate blocks.
Joao Pedro actually benefitted from Liam Rosenior’s reign when looking at his underlying numbers. He registered 14 goal contributions while Rosenior was at the club, and his shot output also improved with Pedro’s shot average now sitting at 2.47 shots per 90 - a metric that was as low as 1.5 shots per 90 earlier on in the campaign, and while he was at Brighton last season.
Of these 66 attempts, 27 have found the target (1.01 per 90). He’s found the target in three of his last five Premier League appearances, and should get chances here against a Forest side that allowed Chelsea to have six shots on target when the sides met at the City Ground earlier on in the campaign.
Morgan Gibbs-White had four shots when these sides met earlier in the season and was pretty unlucky not to see one of these efforts find the target given his usual shot accuracy percentage (37%). He’s been on a remarkable run of form of late in the Premier League, registering six goal contributions across his last five starts in the top flight.
Gibbs-White has found the target in each of his last five Premier League appearances, further showing the confidence that the Forest man is playing with at the moment. Across the season as a whole, Gibbs-White has had 75 shots across his 33 starts in the Premier League (2.32 per 90), seeing 28 of these efforts find the target (0.87 per 90).
He’s also Forest’s top scorer in the Premier League this campaign having netted 13 goals across his 33 starts in the Premier League. This is an incredibly impressive record for a midfielder who had never previously managed more than seven goals in a single Premier League campaign.
Elliot Anderson was pretty lucky to avoid being sent off in Forest’s 1-0 win over Aston Villa on Thursday evening as Vitor Pereira’s side drew first blood in the all-English Europa League semi-final between the sides.
He lunged into a challenge on Watkins, catching his ankle, but avoided further punishment to the obvious annoyance of Unai Emery in the post match press conference.
Anderson was fouled three times in that game, which was partly due to the Villa players wanting a bit of revenge for their team mate, but it’s also a big part of Anderson’s game and one that can come to the fore here against an aggressive Chelsea midfield.
Anderson has won 73 fouls across his 34 starts in the Premier League this season (2.16 per 90), winning a foul in each of his last five Premier League appearances and winning multiple fouls in three of these games.
Anderson was fouled four times when these sides met earlier on in the campaign, showing how the tenacity of Chelsea's midfield can lead to Anderson winning at least two fouls in this clash.
I’ve been pretty impressed with Forest under Vitor Pereira so far, I didn’t quite understand the appointment at the time - which was probably valid when looking at the carousel of managers that Forest have had in the dugout this year - but he’s managed to get the players on side and I think they’ll be able to survive in the Premier League this season.
Forest have scored in each of their last eight matches across all competitions, notably avoiding defeat in all eight of these games. Only Bournemouth, Brighton and Manchester City can boast a better form record across this period than Forest - which makes Pereira’s achievement even more impressive so far as he has managed to galvanise a side that is battling at the bottom of the table.
I think Chelsea’s 1-0 win over Leeds last time out has papered over some of the obvious cracks at the moment in the Chelsea set up. The Blues only managed to keep a clean sheet in that game due to the brilliance of Rob Sanchez, who pretty much kept the clean sheet on his own with three brilliant saves and goals prevented tally of 0.99.
Chelsea v Nottingham Forest Player Matchup ⚔️ @ 2.00
Caicedo came on at half time when these sides met earlier in the season, committing one foul in the second period as Chelsea secured a 3-0 win over Forest. Chelsea committed 16 fouls in total on that occasion, so Caicedo should be in the limelight to cover the 2+ foul line here from the start of the game given his personal record this term.
Caicedo has committed 43 fouls across his 28 starts in the Premier League this season (1.58 per 90), and is also averaging 12.2 defensive contributions per 90 - showing just how crucial Caicedo is to Chelsea’s defensive structure in the middle of the park.
He’s committed a foul in four of his last five Premier League appearances, and should have plenty of work to get through here against Morgan Gibbs-White (1.21 fouls won per 90) and his direct matchup in Elliot Anderson - who has been fouled 2+ times in each of his last four Premier League appearances.
Elliot Anderson was pretty lucky to avoid being sent off in Forest’s 1-0 win over Aston Villa on Thursday evening as Vitor Pereira’s side drew first blood in the all-English Europa League semi-final between the sides.
He lunged into a challenge on Watkins, catching his ankle, but avoided further punishment to the obvious annoyance of Unai Emery in the post match press conference.
Anderson was fouled three times in that game, which was partly due to the Villa players wanting a bit of revenge for their team mate, but it’s also a big part of Anderson’s game and one that can come to the fore here against an aggressive Chelsea midfield.
Anderson has won 73 fouls across his 34 starts in the Premier League this season (2.16 per 90), winning a foul in each of his last five Premier League appearances and winning multiple fouls in three of these games.
Anderson was fouled four times when these sides met earlier on in the campaign, showing how the tenacity of Chelsea's midfield can lead to Anderson winning at least two fouls in this clash.



