Spain are comfortably the best international side around at the moment and have scored 2+ goals in all three of their Nations League games, putting four goals past Croatia when these nations met last week.

Spain have avoided defeat across their last 21 matches. They scored 21 goals across six games during qualifying (3.5 per game), and also netted 13 goals across six games in their last Nations League campaign (2.16 per game), reaching the final on that occasion which they lost to Portugal on penalties.

Croatia look really messy at the back at the moment having conceded seven goals against England last time out. They allowed Spain to have seven shots on target when the sides met last week, totalling an xG of 1.81 to Croatia’s 0.47. 

Bilic watched his side give up an xG of 6.43 against England last time out, suggesting that they are very unlikely to keep Spain out in this clash.

Scotland were very unlucky not to beat Slovenia when these sides met last week, with that clash ending with a point for each nation in a 0-0 draw.

Scotland recorded their first ever win under Pocognoli last time out with a 2-0 victory over North Macedonia. They thoroughly deserved that victory having taken 25 shots and recorded an xG of 3.45 to Macedonia’s 0.38. They also limited the home side to just nine shots, none of which found the target.

They should have beaten Slovenia last week, with Scotland generating an xG of 2.16 from 17 shots in that 0-0 draw. They were particularly impressive in the second half of the game with Slovenia having to rely on Jan Oblak’s man of the match display to keep a clean sheet.

I think Scotland can get over the line this time around against a nation that they are clearly better than on paper. They should have more confidence from their win over North Macedonia to help them get over the line in this one.