ABC Tips

Goals are never too far away in City games, and they’ve provided plenty of entertainment recently. Their firepower and quality gives them a good chance of covering this line in most games they play. Of course, that has been shown by them netting three in each of their last two games.

City’s matches have averaged 2.97 goals and their 63% strike rate for over 2.5 goals is the third highest in the division.

At home, that rises to 3.12 and a whopping 71%. In-fact, every City home game has had a minimum of two goals.

After a slow period, Haaland is flying again too with seven in six since the beginning of April.

Palace haven’t been the most entertaining across the season, but their numbers do increase nicely on the road where their games have averaged 2.53 goals, with 59% seeing three or more.

Four of their last five Premier League games have seen three or more match goals, and eight of their last nine in all comps.

Of course, you’d expect City to have the majority of this game but they’re far from untouchable. We saw them ship three to Everton, and both West Ham and Forest have penetrated their defence in recent weeks.

Both Everton and Brentford forced Gianluigi Donnarumma into at least two saves and 20 of City’s 32 games have seen this selection land, which is perhaps higher than you might’ve thought.

One of those 20 includes the reverse fixture with Palace. Despite winning at a canter, Palace forced four saves out of the man between the sticks.

Palace have also forced two or more saves from their opponents goalkeeper in four of their last five matches in all comps.

Palace do have the Conference League final to keep an eye on, but I’d still expect them to start a strong side here - as they did against Everton at the weekend. 

Pep has mentioned that he may have to rotate his side with their own cup final on the horizon so there is some potential vulnerabilities in the line-up.

The Japanese midfielder had a tough start to life at Palace, but has cemented himself as first choice in the pivot alongside Adam Wharton.

Kamada is excellent at drawing fouls. He’s drawn an average of 1.38 per 90. The highest of any player in the starting line-up for Palace, except Ismaila Sarr; who is priced much shorter.

Kamada is key to escaping the press. He draws fouls because of his ability to turn quickly and progress the ball from deep areas, allowing Palace to escape danger and launch counter attacks.

City can get sucked into some high foul counts against sides lower in the division. They committed 16 against Wolves, 12 against Burnley and Chelsea and 14 against Newcastle.

Palace have drawn 10+ fouls in eight of their last 10 matches in all comps.

The fouls City commit also often come from central players - Silva, Reijnders and Rodri rank in a decent spot for average fouls committed per 90 and Nico O’Reilly, who occupies central areas regularly, averages 1.55 fouls per 90; the highest in the City squad besides Nico Gonzalez (1.77), who could feature as Pep mentioned rotation possibilities.

At times, Doku is incredibly frustrating. However, when he’s on it, he might be one of the most influential players in the league. His 1v1 ability, and potential to make something out of nothing make him a very dangerous opponent.

He’s been brilliant in recent matches, and comes in to this with four goals and two assists in his last four appearances.

He’s had a shot on target in five of his last six as well, including having two against both Everton and Brentford in his last two starts.

His raw pace and ability to shift the ball on to his favoured right-foot underpin his threat, and he’s only too happy to get a shot off from distance - which we’ve seen to devastating effect on numerous occasions.

Palace will be camped in at times as City dominate the ball, and Doku could land this selection in the blink of an eye.