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Manchester City covered this line inside 32 minutes in the most recent meeting between the sides, as they ran out 3-1 winners over Newcastle in the second leg of their EFL Cup semi-final against Eddie Howe’s side. Pep Guardiola’s side have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions and have notably avoided defeat across those matches.

Manchester City have a very impressive record against Newcastle at the Etihad, stretching back to before Guardiola took charge of the club. They’ve been impressive at home this season as well, winning 10 of their 13 matches with those games producing 40 goals (3.07 per game). They welcome a Newcastle side who have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions.

Newcastle did manage to get on the scoresheet in the most recent meeting between the sides, and should take confidence from the six goals they netted against Qarabag during the week to all but secure their spot in the proper knockout stages of the Champions League.

Gordon should be full of confidence coming into this clash, having netted four goals during the week as Newcastle ran out 6-1 winners over Qarabag. He played up front in that clash and may take on that role again here, with Newcastle likely to be without Yoane Wissa for this clash.

It looks like Eddie Howe is now profiling Nick Woltemade as an attacking midfielder, he’s played there for the last few weeks after struggling in the central striker role despite a positive start to the campaign. Gordon has a strong record when it comes to finding the target, and the back of the net, against the elite sides in the Premier League. He’ll be on penalties for Newcastle as well, having netted two during the week in that four-goal haul.

Gordon should get plenty of space to run in behind here, City need all three points to keep the pressure on Arsenal, so I’d expect quite a bold approach from the home side. Gordon has had 34 shots across his 18 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 2.33 shots per 90. He’s averaging 0.75 shots on target per 90, though I think the confidence he’ll have from his midweek display can help to see a rise in that particular metric.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lewis Hall come into midfield for this clash, which would really aid this selection, but I think it’s strong even if he starts as a left back. Hall played as a midfielder throughout his youth career, and has the skillset to play there at this level. He’s done it a few times for Newcastle before, and with Howe missing Joelinton and Bruno Guimaraes for this clash - Hall may be a good midfield replacement.

Hall is incredibly hard to knock off the ball, and operates well in tight spaces to get Newcastle going on the counter-attack. He’s completed 31 dribbles in the Premier League this season (2.14 per 90), resulting in the former Chelsea player winning 24 fouls (1.66 per 90). I think that Hall may be faced up by Antoine Semenyo in this encounter, with Guardiola more than aware of the threat that Hall can pose to his side with his runs down that side.

Semenyo has remained quite an aggressive player off the ball since joining Manchester City, and will be able to keep a close eye on Hall in this clash. Semenyo has committed 47 fouls across his 25 Premier League appearances this season (1.88 per 90) - so he is an ideal candidate to haul down Hall here on a few occasions. If Hall does line up in midfield, then he’ll be faced by Silva (1.41 fouls committed per 90) and Rodri (0.81 fouls committed per 90).

As Newcastle are mainly going to be operating in transition in this encounter, taking Rodri for a caution seems like a sensible angle given the situations that are likely to develop where Rodri has to haul down one of the Newcastle players to stop a quick counter-attack.

I think Newcastle will line up with a front three of Harvey Barnes, Anthony Gordon and Anthony Elanga here, with Eddie Howe looking to be as direct as possible. Gordon should continue in his central striker role, meaning that he’ll brush shoulders with Rodri when dropping a bit deeper - Gordon has won 27 fouls across his 18 starts in the Premier League this season (1.85 per 90).

Rodri has collected two yellow cards across his 10 starts in the Premier League this season. He’s no stranger to this enforcer role, and even though Newcastle are without their main foul winner in Bruno Guimaraes, they can still draw fouls through Sandro Tonali, who is averaging 1.62 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season.

Antoine Semenyo has arguably been one of the stars of the season so far, with 10 goals in 20 games for Bournemouth, earning the attacker a big money move to Manchester City, where he has continued in the same manner, with three goals in five league games. This bet has landed in six of Semenyo’s last 10 league starts.

He has recent experience of scoring against Newcastle too, in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg at St James' Park, and was unfortunate to have a second disallowed. City have scored five against the Magpies over their last two encounters.

Newcastle have had to cope with a midweek trip to Azerbaijan, where they battered Qarabag FK 6-1, but that will have taken plenty out of them. They’ve been poor away from home too, averaging just a point per game, but they do come into this on the back of three away wins on the bounce to an aggregate score of 11-3.

Man City should have plenty of encouragement to pick up all three points in this clash, given that Arsenal slipped up at Wolves during the week, meaning that City can close the gap at the top to just two points before Arsenal take on Tottenham in the North London Derby.

Man City have been very strong at home in the Premier League this season, winning 10 of their 13 matches at the Etihad, which is the joint best home record in the division. They’ve netted 32 goals across these games, which is also the most in the league, and only conceded eight goals - this defensive record is significant, as City had their worst ever defensive home campaign under Guardiola last season, conceding 23 goals.

City comfortably beat Newcastle over two legs in the EFL Cup semi-final which took place in January. They ran out 5-1 winners over the two legs, racing into a 3-0 lead in the first half of the second leg when Newcastle visited the Etihad. Newcastle have never won at the Etihad in Guardiola’s tenure at the club, and have lost their last six trips without even scoring a goal. 

Newcastle have scored 13 of their 37 Premier League goals from set pieces this season (35%), indicating that corners and other set plays are a key part of their attacking approach.

Newcastle are averaging 6.92 corners per game in the Premier League, which is the highest average of any side in the top flight this term. This metric drops slightly, but is still convincing, when looking at their away games, in which they’re averaging 6.38 corners per game. No side has won more corners on the road in the Premier League this season than Newcastle, setting them up for a healthy corner count here.

Newcastle have managed 4+ corners in all three of the meetings between these sides this term, including a tally of five when the sides last clashed in the second leg of the EFL Cup semi-final. If Newcastle are going to have joy here, it’s likely to come from set pieces - the threats of Thiaw and Burn can cause City problems.

It’s tough to find value in City games, but Semenyo seems to be providing some since his January switch from Bournemouth. With Haaland at 1.11, Marmoush at 1.25 and Cherki at 1.28 to register 1+ shots on target, this looks rather attractive at the current price.

Semenyo has averaged 1.20 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League for City, and has had one or more shots on target in each of his games, except his debut in that poor performance against United. For The Cherries, Semenyo was averaging 1.35 shots on target per 90. He’s adapted really well from being a bit of a talisman to more of a cog in a machine, netting three times in the PL already for his new club. Going back across ‘25/26, Semenyo has had a shot on target in 21 of his 25 games.

I like focusing my shots on target picks on players who have plenty of routes to landing it. Semenyo is brilliant on both feet, he gets into the box, but he also shoots from range. All those elements combined are huge positives.

It’s not often a selection starts by discussing a different player, one that’s not even playing - but a big hinge for this bet is the absence of Bruno Guimaraes. The Brazilian has been excellent for The Toon this season, but misses this one through injury. That means a reshuffle for Newcastle. Tonali will drop into the six, as opposed to his usual position as an eight.

Guimaraes commits a hefty 1.47 fouls per 90 and his 33 is the most in the Newcastle squad. Those fouls don’t just vanish. Yes, Tonali may foul less at 0.86 times per 90, but his position will contribute to that. He doesn’t lack aggression, and playing in that deeper role in midweek, he committed two fouls - against a far weaker side than City.

He’ll also likely come across City’s most fouled players like Rodri (1.72) and Foden (1.31). Nico O’Reilly is another interesting addition to the mix, he’s drawn four fouls in two games since being moved into midfield.