Tips Feed

Neco Williams has been getting stuck in during recent games, making at least one foul in eight of his last 10 Premier League games. The Welshman is being deployed at left back under Vitor Pereira, meaning that he’s often having to make challenges on his weaker left side and also committed an infringement in the reverse fixture, contributing to his season average of 0.86 fouls per 90.

Up against Williams will be one of Burnley’s most fouled players in winger Marcus Edwards, who is hauled down 1.37 times per 90 on average. The last 14 left backs to face the Clarets have combined for 12 fouls between them, and with Williams desperate to secure a vital win for his side, we can rely on him for an offence.

Another winning selection from last weekend’s foul accas, Morgan Gibbs-White has been priced generously to win a foul again. He’s now been fouled at least once in 13 consecutive league starts, during which he’s drawn a massive 22 infringements, and in a must-win game for Forest, he’ll be seeing lots of the ball and, therefore, drawing plenty of attention from the opposition.

Burnley aren’t one of the most prolific fouling teams in the Premier League, but Gibbs-White is likely to be up against the likes of Luis Florentino, Josh Laurent and Lesley Ugochukwu in the middle of the park. That trio have combined for 4.28 offences per 90 this season, so there should be plenty of close attention being paid to Forest’s number 10 as there was in the reverse fixture where he cashed this bet.

Burnley are as good as down but seem to be giving it a good go in recent weeks to avoid finishing bottom of the Premier League pile. One player who they’ve been able to rely on in the final third is Jaidon Anthony, who has scored four goals in all competitions since the start of 2026 and has now managed a shot on target in seven of his last eight league starts.

Forest will be tired from their Thursday night Europa League exploits, and with this such a huge game in terms of their own survival bid, it could be a nervy atmosphere at the City Ground. Burnley have nothing to lose and so can attack at will, and with Anthony in such great form, the Clarets will be looking for him to threaten the Forest goal. 

Nottingham Forest are averaging 5.58 corners per game this season across all competitions, rising notably to 6.43 when playing at the City Ground. Interestingly, this selection has landed in all five of their home games under Vitor Pereira, including against the likes of Liverpool and Aston Villa. Forest play with a lot more confidence in front of a home crowd, and they will be desperate to secure the full three points here, given that they are only narrowly above the relegation zone. It’s a perfect matchup for them to do so as well, as Burnley have been on a really poor run of form. 

The Clarets are 19th in the Premier League standings, only three points above Wolves at the bottom, and they are conceding an average of 6.38 corners per game in the league this campaign. Scott Parker’s men have struggled to limit chances for their opponents, and Forest will hope to exploit that.

Martin Dubravka has made more saves than any other goalkeeper in the Premier League this season, and by quite some distance, too. The Slovakian international has racked up 114 saves, with Djordje Petrovic in second with 96 saves. Despite his efforts, Burnley are still near the foot of the table, and this could be a tough afternoon for them. 

However, Dubravka was a key reason why Burnley secured a point when these sides met at Turf Moor in the reverse fixture, as he racked up seven crucial saves. Forest dominated proceedings and were constantly causing problems in the final third, but Dubravka was on top form.

Forest are drawing an average of 3.57 saves per game at home this season, and they will need to maintain that front-footed approach, as three points here could go a long way in the survival race.

Vitor Pereira likes his side to play with width, and Neco Williams suits his system well. The 24-year-old is given plenty of attacking licence by the Forest manager, and he has registered some impressive shot counts in recent weeks. That includes three shots against Fenerbahce on Vitor Pereira’s debut, and four efforts against Aston Villa last weekend. Three of those attempts hit the target against Villa, and one even found the back of the net - that was the important equalising goal which eventually earned Forest a point. 

Williams has scored twice in the Premier League this season, while also providing three assists, highlighting how involved he normally is in the final third. He should have plenty of opportunities to get forward again this weekend, and he should be especially confident given that he scored in the reverse fixture at Turf Moor. Williams had two shots in that game. 

After being sent off against Fulham just before the international break, Josh Laurent served his one-game suspension against Brighton last weekend, and he will be back in contention to start in midfield. Laurent is averaging 1.42 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season, one of the highest figures, in the Burnley squad, and he has accumulated eight yellow cards and a red in his 31 appearances across all competitions this season.

Laurent has proven his versatility this season, and has played at both centre back and wingback, but his preferred position is in midfield, and he should feature there at the City Ground this weekend.

He draws an excellent matchup to improve his foul numbers, as Nottingham Forest rank fourth of all Premier League sides for total fouls drawn this season. They are a difficult side to contain, particularly in midfield areas, which means Laurent should have plenty of defensive work to get through.