Brighton full back Ferdi Kadioglu is another player who needs no encouragement to go down, forcing 1.18 fouls per game across the season. The Turkish left sider has landed this bet in six of his last seven league starts, across which he’s drawn 12 fouls, and so he’s regularly on the end of rough treatment. 

Adding further justification to this selection is the fact that Brighton’s left back is likely to be opposing Randal Kolo Muani, who commits a huge 2.31 offences per 90 for Spurs. Tottenham are under huge pressure in the relegation zone, and with forwards trying to learn the pressing tactics of Roberto De Zerbi, they’re even more likely to make errors in tackles, too.

At the other end of the pitch, Yankuba Minteh has been getting stuck in during recent weeks, committing eight fouls in his last three games, being carded in two of them. Brighton’s Gambian winger appears to be keen to make up for lost time, with those games being his only three starts in 2026, and the combination of rustiness and enthusiasm often leads to plenty of fouls.

Up against Minteh will be Spurs’ right-sided duo of Pedro Porro and Randal Kolo Muani, who, between them, are averaging 1.76 fouls drawn per 90. Both were fouled in their first game for their new boss, and with this game having the added spice of Roberto De Zerbi facing his old club for the first time, we should see lots of fouls in a fiery atmosphere that should only motivate Minteh more.

After his brace at Burnley last weekend, Mats Wieffer should be full of confidence and raring to go again as Brighton travel to Spurs to face former boss Roberto De Zerbi. The Dutchman is another full back who is providing more than his fair share in the attacking third of the pitch this season, with seven shots in his last five league starts and a seasonal average of 1.01 efforts per 90. 

Struggling Spurs looked no better at Sunderland last weekend despite their managerial change and are now the bookies' favourites to occupy 18th spot and drop to the Championship at the end of the season. The North London club have won just once in front of their own fans since opening day, and having kept just two clean sheets at home all season, Brighton can take advantage and put another nail in their coffin.

Tottenham's predicament is beginning to become real now - they are in the relegation zone, and two points adrift of West Ham with just six league games remaining. Under Igor Tudor, Spurs picked up just one point in the from a possible 21, and De Zerbi was unable to break Tottenham’s winless curse in the Premier League against Sunderland. Nordi Mukiele's deflected strike condemned them to a 1-0 defeat at the Stadium of Light.

Tottenham have now failed to win any of their last 14 league matches. To make matters worse, captain Cristian Romero was forced off in tears late on at Sunderland after a collision with his own goalkeeper, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season. 

Brighton, by contrast, come into this in excellent form, having won 2-0 at Burnley last time out. Fabian Hurzeler's side sit ninth in the table with 46 points, having won five of their last six league matches.

Tottenham have been shown 80 yellow cards in their 32 Premier League games this season, which is the joint-most along with Chelsea and Brighton. Spurs are averaging 3.17 cards per game when playing at home this season, which is a notable increase on their average of 2.19 when playing away, which makes this market stand out. This bet has landed in 14 of Tottenham’s 16 home games overall. 

The pressure of their situation seems to be having a major effect on the players, and Spurs picked up two cards in the reverse fixture at the Amex Stadium in September. Brighton have been much better this season at picking up cards than drawing them, but Liverpool were recently booked five times against the Seagulls, highlighting how they can be a difficult side to contain.

De Zerbi deployed Randal Kolo Muani in a right wing role on his debut at Sunderland, setting up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. If the Frenchman starts in that position again, his primary matchup should be Ferdi Kadioglu at left back. The Turkish international is averaging 1.18 fouls drawn per 90 in the league this season, and he has been fouled 10 times in his last five matches alone. He is quite direct in his approach, and sees plenty of the ball for Brighton, so this presents a good matchup to target Kolo Muani. 

Kolo Muani has impressive foul data for a forward, averaging 2.31 per 90 in the league this season. He is willing to press from the front, and De Zerbi's system demands exactly that intensity out of possession. The Frenchman has landed this selection in five of his last seven Premier League starts.

Jack Hinshelwood has established himself as a key figure for Brighton in recent months, and he has started the last seven consecutive games. Hinshelwood typically operates in an advanced midfield position, looking to get into the opposition box and create overloads, which means he is given quite a big role in the final third.

The 21-year-old is averaging 1.8 shots per 90 in the league this season, and has registered multiple shots in six of his last seven starts. That includes landing this bet against Aston Villa and Arsenal, with exactly three shots in both of those respective games. 

Spurs are a much easier matchup than both of those sides, and they have conceded the sixth-most shots of any side in the division. They are a side massively lacking confidence at the moment, and Brighton will hope to capitalise on that as they mount a push for a European finish.

Diego Gomez is one of the most combative midfielders in the Premier League, and his aggressive style has earned him nine yellow cards from 29 appearances this season, putting him amongst the most-booked players in the division. He also ranks fourth for total fouls committed out of all players in the league this season, averaging 2.08 fouls per 90, and he has been called for multiple infringements in each of his last six starts.

Destiny Udogie is his most likely matchup here on the flank, and the Italian international is averaging 1.45 fouls drawn per 90 this season, highlighting how he uses his body well to win his side free-kicks. Gomez recorded just the one foul in the reverse fixture at the Amex Stadium, but that was enough to earn him a booking, and he is a target once more in this matchup.

Pedro Porro looked determined to leave his mark against Sunderland last time out, and the Spaniard was really unlucky not to find the back of the net. He recorded three shots in total, and they all hit the target. It took Porro just two minutes to land this selection against the Black Cats, as he was denied by an excellent save by Robin Roefs.

Porro had another shot saved from a free-kick, before having one more effort deep into stoppage time, which was tipped over the bar. Porro looks set to be given plenty of attacking license to get forward in De Zerbi’s system, making this price stand out. 

Porro is averaging 1.13 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has landed this selection in three of his last five starts. He managed to find the back of the net against Atletico Madrid in that stretch, which shows how he has an eye for goal.

The reverse fixture between these sides in September finished 2-2, which looks like a poor result for Brighton, but Danny Welbeck was not in the starting eleven for that game. Since then, the 35-year-old has been one of the in-form strikers in the league, and this is currently his best season in terms of total goals scored.

Welbeck has bagged 12 goals in 31 Premier League appearances this campaign, including a brace against Liverpool just before the international break. He also scored against both Nottingham Forest and Brentford, respectively, just before that. 

Welbeck should be licking his lips at this matchup, against a Spurs backline that is decimated by injuries and has now conceded in each of their last 13 league games. Kevin Danso and Micky Van De Ven look set to partner up at the back here with Romero out, and it seems unlikely they will be able to cope with Welbeck’s threat.