Stafford

Stafford

Sunday
Grimsby

Grimsby

Stafford v Grimsby Tips

Latest tips for Stafford v Grimsby from Andy Robson and his team of experts.

Football

Sunday's FA Cup Treble 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏆 @ 3.71

Marcus Ally

Three entertaining mismatches

Both teams have been free-scoring of late and gamestate will lend itself towards goals if one team is leading heading into the closing exchanges of the game - the margin of defeat is irrelevant in a cup tie.

8th-tier Stafford beat Gateshead, of the National League, 5-0 in a replay in the final round of qualifying, and currently sit 2nd in the Northern Premier League Division One West with 11 wins and three defeats.

Grimsby, who beat Man Utd in the EFL Cup last season, will have to contend with Tom Tonks’ long throws (see Tamworth v Tottenham from 24/25 if you don’t remember these missiles) whenever they concede a throw in their own third.

Which doesn’t bode well considering they’ve conceded six goals and 0.49 xG per game from set pieces in League Two this season, and Stafford can turn every throw in the Grimsby defensive third into a set piece.

Grimsby have been reliable going forward this season and come into this game off an epic 5-2 win over York.

Only Barnet and Salford have scored more than Grimsby in the fourth tier, and they’ve seen over 2.5 goals in five of their seven league away games.

This game is definitely on the upset radar given how Crawley have played this season.

There hasn’t been an uplift since Kevin Blackwell’s arrival in an interim capacity replacing Colin Kazim-Richards in the dugout, despite what results suggest.

They won 1-0 at Oldham last weekend, but it was a hugely unconvincing performance considering the hosts were reduced to nine men from the 30th minute onwards.

That was their first league win since late August and their first league clean sheet of the season (which definitely has an asterisk next to it).

Wimborne will have moments on their own patch, they have five-time Northern Ireland international Josh McQuoid and average 1.69 goals for per game in the league this term.

Crawley’s three EFL Trophy games this season average 3.67 total goals and they lost 3-0 at Boreham Wood at this stage of the FA Cup last season.

In fact, Crawley’s FA Cup first round encounter has seen three or more goals in each of the last four seasons.

Oldham have been one of the biggest data outliers, and unsustainable underperformers, in League Two this season, scoring just 15 from 21.36 xG.

A regression to the mean in their finishing would see them contribute to the scoreline against Sheffield Wednesday.

Wednesday have been inconsistent this season, but have shown that when they click they can be devastating, beating Bromley 7-2 and AFC Wimbledon 5-0 earlier in the campaign.

Dave Challinor has recently replaced Henrik Pedersen in the dugout and will be keen to avoid embarrassment at Boundary Park.

Oldham saw over 3.5 goals in their two FA Cup outings last season, a similar tally is expected in this one.

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Over 2.5 - Goals

4h ago