Tips Feed

It’s been a difficult first season at Tottenham for big money summer signing Xavi Simons, who has shown flashes of quality but only contributed five goal contributions in the Premier League.

What Simons has undoubtedly shown is a willingness to get stuck in, sometimes too much so, averaging just under one foul per 90 in the Premier League (0.98).

A fiery personality, the Dutchman can become frustrated quickly and has picked up four yellows and one red so far in his debut season in the Premier League.

If there is one Tottenham fixture in which emotions can run particularly high it is the North London derby and I expect Simons to be bang up for this one under a new manager in Igor Tudor.

Jurrien Timber has been a key player for Arsenal this season both offensively and defensively, showing great energy up and down the Gunners’ right flank.

The Dutchman’s ability to get up and down the pitch sees him involved in a lot of duels which inevitably increases the risk of fouls, with Timber averaging 1.40 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season.

Timber has picked up four yellow cards in the Premier League this season, with three of these cautions picked up in away games.

The right-back is likely to come into close contact with international teammate Simons at the Tottenham Stadium, with Spurs’ number seven a specialist at drawing fouls, averaging 2.22 won per 90.

Timber is a naturally combative player and will be more than prepared for a physical battle should this North London derby pan out this way

A crucial North London Derby sees league leaders Arsenal travelling to rivals Spurs under pressure from Man City. If they’re to get over the line and seal the title, they’ll be looking to Bukayo Saka to lead them there, and the winger’s average of 1.2 shots on target per 90 will be needed. Saka has tested the goalkeeper at least once in seven consecutive away league starts and also hit the target twice in the reverse fixture.

Spurs will be hoping to spoil the Gunners’ title charge, but having kept just two clean sheets at home all season, they’ll have to survive plenty of Arsenal pressure. Thomas Frank’s men also have injury issues at left back, meaning the attack-minded Djed Spence will have to play out of position against Saka. Our man will be on penalties for Arsenal and also has four previous goals in this fixture, so he should be looking forward to facing them again.

Igor Tudor was sacked by Juventus in October, following a run of eight games without a victory. The Bianconeri were involved in some enthralling encounters early on in the season, including a 4-4 draw against Dortmund in the Champions League, and a 4-3 win against Inter Milan. Igor Tudor usually adopts quite progressive tactics, which means games can be quite open.  

Dominic Solanke looks set to lead the line here against Arsenal, and he will have a big role in the final third. The former Chelsea man made a massive impact against Man City recently at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, as he bagged a brace in a 2-2 draw. Solanke also registered three attempts against Newcastle last time out, but was unfortunate not to hit the target, as all three were blocked. 

Arsenal are a tough matchup here, but they have looked shaky in recent games, and were only able to draw against Wolves on Wednesday night.

Prior to that, the Gunners were fortunate to hold on to a point against Brentford. Jurrien Timber was able to dodge a booking in that match, but the Dutchman has been no stranger to the referee’s notebook this season. He has been shown four yellow cards from 26 appearances in the league this season, with two of those yellows coming in January. 

Considering Timber is averaging 1.46 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season, you would expect him to have picked up more bookings. Peter Bankes is the designated referee for the North London Derby this weekend, and he is a solid appointment to back the overs. Bankes has dished out 73 yellows and three red cards in his 18 league appearances this season, averaging 4.2 cards per game.

Timber was booked on his last visit to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and has committed 14 fouls in his last seven Premier League matches.

Joao Palhinha’s first North London Derby didn’t go as he hoped in November, as Spurs were easily beaten 4-1 at the Emirates. The Portuguese international was, however, one of the best players for his side that evening - he got through plenty of defensive work in midfield, and even provided the assist for Richarlison.

Palhinha recorded two fouls in that game, but it really could have been more. He also racked up eight tackles, and contested a total of 21 duels - the most of any Tottenham player. Palhinha has proven that he is not one to shy away from a duel, and he is averaging 1.26 fouls per 90 this season across all competitions, rising to 1.64 when playing on home turf.

Tottenham have seen at least two cards in each of their last 12 home Premier League matches dating back to the opening day of the season against Burnley. In their last nine games in England’s top flight, they have had at least three cards on eight occasions. It would be a massive surprise if that run were to end in North London Derby encounter that typically sees plenty of action for the referee.

Spurs were shown three yellow cards in their previous clash against Arsenal in November off the back of 15 fouls, that count is unlikely to drop under new manager Igor Tudor.

Not only should the home players be doubly determined to show their new boss what they can do, the former Juventus and Marseille head coach is noted for his teams adopting a physical approach. Throw this additional element into the derby atmosphere and referee Peter Bankes, who booked four Spurs players in their clash against Man City earlier this season, we can expect a couple of home cards at least. Bankes averages 4.22 cards per game in the Premier League this term.

Contrary to popular belief, Arsenal have been going pretty well offensively in recent weeks. Across their last 16 matches in all competitions, they have scored two or more goals on 12 occasions, including in three of their last four games.

Scoring against Spurs hasn’t historically been much of an issue for Mikel Arteta’s side, either. When the sides met earlier this term, the Gunners ran in four goals against their neighbours, with Eberechi Eze famously grabbing a hat-trick. Indeed, they have scored two or more goals in eight of their last 10 North London Derby matches.

Tottenham’s defence, meanwhile, hasn’t been up to much lately. They have conceded two goals in seven of their last nine games, four of their last five at home, and in each of their last six in the Premier League. Without defensive leader Cristian Romero due to suspension, and missing Pedro Porro, Kevin Danso and Destiny Udogie due to injuries, the odds are against Spurs ending that run here.

The bet has landed in seven of Simons' last eight in the league. Simons will likely duel with Jurrien Timber, who’s been fouled in all of his last five, winning seven fouls in that run.

Simons is averaging 0.98 fouls per 90 in the Premier League and crucially, 1.89 tackles per 90 as well. He’s made five sliding tackles in his last three games, too. Igor Tudor will tweak things, but Simons' fouling has remained consistent, despite playing in different positions this season, add in the fuel of the North London derby and he should sin at least once.

Simons could get involved with Eberechi Eze (1.79 fouls won per 90) and even Bukayo Saka (2.30 fouls won per 90) if he starts, we could see more tracking back to impress his new manager.

This bet has landed in Gallagher's last three in the league. The last time Igor Tudor managed a team for a full season was 2022/23 at Marseille, and they were the 2nd-biggest foulers in Ligue 1 at 14 per game - that rate would be the highest in the Premier League this season.

In terms of Premier League players who'd be suited to playing in an aggressive team like that - Gallagher is right up there. With the Super Sub feature onside, he’s fouled in all five of his Premier League appearances for Spurs (1-1-3-2-2). In his last full season at Chelsea, he was fouling over two times per game on average, too.

With the potential for Eze (1.79 fouls won per 90) to come into the team as well, Gallagher's former team-mate at Crystal Palace, Gallagher should relish his first North London derby.