AC Milan have faced some defensive difficulties as of late, with their clean sheet at the weekend being their first since the first week of September, since conceding 10 in 7 games across all competitions. They have conceded nearly double that of their title competitors Inter Milan and Juventus and it seems that their defence has in fact been overperforming. The Rossoneri have racked up an xGA of 16.58 and have conceded only 14 in this Serie A this season. Partnered with conceding 4 in 4 Champions League games, there’s certainly vulnerability at the back.

Borussia Dortmund have also been the victim of defensive struggles, boasting the sixth-worst defence in the Bundesliga top ten after conceding 19 goals – 11 of those coming in their last 4 Bundesliga games, a worrying trend. Similar to their Tuesday night hosts, their xGA exceeds that of their actual goals conceded, 21.52 vs 19, so their defensive worries may persist here. Completing the double over Newcastle and keeping two clean sheets in the process will no doubt have created some confidence amongst the Die Schwarzgelben players but there’s still work to do.

Both sides have shared the love for scoring goals this season, the hosts averaging 1.68 goals scored in the Serie A and the visitors averaging 2.08 goals in Germany. Both have had their struggles scoring in these competitions but that’s somewhat expected in such a tough group with each game being a cagey affair. Saying that, both teams to score market does look very inviting here.

Both teams to score have landed in 46% of Milan’s fixtures and 67% of Dortmund’s. Both sides will be hesitant to settle with a point from this fixture so we should expect some drama out there.

Predictions:

⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.65

⚽ Over 1.5 goals @ 1.22

Niclas Fullkrug opened his Champions League account during his side’s home victory over Newcastle a few weeks ago and has scored in both of Dortmund’s Bundesliga games since, a great bout of form.

Fullkrug put out a man-of-the-match performance at the weekend in the victory over Borussia Monchengladbach, grabbing a goal and an assist, and was pivotal to Dortmund’s attacking threat. He is currently averaging 1.07 shots on target per 90 minutes from 1.73 shots at goal, and with some great form on his side, he could prove a real threat once again. He has registered a shot on target in each of the three Champions League games he has started this season so this market does look very enticing.

Oliver Giroud also added the first goal to his tally for this European campaign in AC Milan’s 2-1 victory with a superb headed effort, likely beating any goalkeeper, that proved crucial in collecting the 3 points. The Frenchman is having an amazing season in Italy, scoring seven goals in eleven appearances, leaving him second in the top goalscorer standings, as well as showing his continued athletic prowess by scoring an overhead kick in France’s battering of Gibraltar over the international break – aging like fine wine.

Giroud is currently averaging 2.02 shots on goal per 90 minutes, with 1.19 of these hitting the target of which he boasts the best numbers in the squad. He has registered 2 shots on target in three of his four Champions League matches this season, including the reverse fixture, and he could trouble this Dortmund defence, especially considering their recent struggles in aerial battles in the Bundesliga.

Predictions:

🎯 Niclas Fullkrug to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.62 

🚀 Niclas Fullkrug to have 2+ shots @ 1.25 

🎯 Oliver Giroud to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.33 

🎯 Oliver Giroud to have 2+ shot on target @ 2.50

Borussia Dortmund have surely shown a love for corners this season, especially during their Champions League outings. The German giants have averaged 7.25 corners across their four European matches and have shown real promise during their wing play. Partnered with an average of 5.00 corners per 90 in the Bundesliga, corner markets could provide good value here.

Domestically, AC Milan have shown great promise in reducing the number of corners faced, boasting an impressive average of 3.85 corners conceded per match, one of the lowest in the Serie A. Strangely, this capability seems to dissipate in the Champions League having conceded a whooping 21 corners in their last 3 outings in the competition – a slight fall from grace…

Although they have certainly enjoyed their fare of taking corners, registering 23 across their last 4 – it would seem the Rosseneri are also enjoying the set pieces. The numbers also seem fairly foreign against the domestic average of 4.15 corners taken per match but as they say, anything can happen in this competition.

AC Milan games in the Champions League are averaging 11.25 corners, which perfectly partners with their visitor’s figures of 15.25 corners – the fans in the corner seats could be in for a real treat on Tuesday. The reverse fixture saw 13 corners, in which the corner match bet went to Milan – now it’s time for the San Siro to play host.

It’s difficult to pick out a winner for the corner match bet here considering how erratic corners have been at both ends for these two sides but considering Dortmund’s more apparent vulnerability to conceding big corner counts in their last 4 European nights, AC Milan look like the stronger selection.

Predictions:

🚩 Over 9.5 total corners @ 1.95

🚩 Over 10.5 total corners @ 2.55

🚩 AC Milan Corner Match Bet @ 1.62

Malick Thiaw looks like a prime target for fouls in this game. The Milan defender makes the joint-highest number of tackles in the Milan squad and has racked up the most fouls too, averaging 1.46 per 90 in the Serie A this year.

Thiaw will be up against the likes of Salih Ozcan and Niclas Fullkrug who both draw an impressive 2.16 and 1.47 fouls per 90. He may also have to battle with Felix Nmecha on Tuesday depending on how advanced his role is as he seemingly rotates between attacking and central midfield this year, the German midfielder draws in 2.69 fouls per game.

There is definitely potential for foul selections here, and with three yellows for Malick Thiaw in Italy and one in the Champions League this season, a card selection could be great for crafting those high-odds bet builders.

Another Milan candidate comes in the form of Oliver Giroud who has set himself as his side’s joint-second highest fouler. The Frenchman commits 1.55 fouls per 90 in the Serie A, impressive numbers for a forward, and has picked up one yellow and one red this season. Giroud’s hold-up play is a great asset in Milan’s attacking strategy which demands a very physical presence from him, which isn’t often too kindly received by opposing defenders. Tussle-ups like this can see fouls given both ways but this is the situation that has seen a good percentage of Giroud’s fouls. He’s always been a big game player so we expect him to be very present on Tuesday’s clash, physically and mentally.

From Borussia Dortmund’s perspective, look no further than the previously mentioned midfield duo of Salih Ozcan and  Felix Nmecha. These boys love battling for possession and seemingly gravitate towards these high-fouling situations. Ozcan is making 2.35 fouls per 90 and Nmecha 1.04 in the same time – impressive figures (or perhaps concerning).

Both will be coming up against the likes of Rafael Leao, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, and Christian Pulisic who draw in 2.39, 1.85 and 1.65 fouls per game, respectively. Tricky feet to handle in a tricky matchup, and with a highly contended midfield battle surely on the cards here, expect the two Dortmund boys to get stuck in early.

Predictions:

🛑 Malick Thiaw to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.30

🛑 Oliver Giroud to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.73

🛑 Salih Ozcan to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.73

🛑 Felix Nmecha to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.33

Perhaps a more clear-cut market to target involving AC Milan is the booking market, with Stefano Pioli’s side boasting the worst disciplinary in the Serie A so far this season. Having received the second-highest number of bookings (35) spread across 16 offenders in the squad, they have also picked up a concerning 4 red cards, double that of second-placed Monza. This amounts to 39 cards from just 13 fixtures.

Their disciplinary errors have seemingly stalked them into Europe, having picked up 11 bookings across their four outings this season. This is quite a fortunate figure considering their fouls committed average of 11.75 per game – Milan sure know the master art of discrete fouls. Their visitors have plenty of experience of being on the end of these high foul games with Dortmund averaging 12.90 fouls drawn per match in the Bundesliga, a partnership that seems to go hand-in-hand. With tempers likely to run high on Tuesday night in this critical fixture, we’re likely to see more of this trend.

Dortmund have enjoyed a slightly better domestic disciplinary record than their Tuesday opponents, picking up 22 yellows and one red card this season, the 10th best (or worst) record in the Bundesliga. Die Schwarzgelben have only seen seven yellows across their Champions League fixtures, with three of those coming in the return fixture, in a game that saw them commit 9 fouls, to their opponents 15, but still saw an extra booking for the German giants.

Istvan Kovacs will officiate this crucial Champions League tie, his eighth of this season after featuring in the UEFA Nations League and the Euro 2024 Qualifiers, and two Champions League appearances. He has given out an average of 4.43 yellows across all of his games this year and this rises up to 6.00 yellows for his outings in this competition, from an average of 26 fouls per game which could actually be seen as a fairly conservative approach – a booking every 4 fouls or so. The question is how heated can this game get?

Predictions:

🟨 Over 3.5 cards @ 1.36

🟨 Over 4.5 cards @ 1.95

🟨 Over 2.5 AC Milan cards @ 2.05