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AC Milan v Liverpool
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Kick Off: Tuesday 17th September at 20:00
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Competition: Champions League
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Watch Live: Amazon Prime Video
In their first matches of the revamped 2025 Champions League, it’s Liverpool who travel to The magnificent San Siro for their opener against AC Milan.
Milan have had a below-par start to the season, picking up 5 points from their first 4 matches. That’s not really in line with the ideals of a fanbase who were hoping to be in a title race this year. Time will tell if their league form takes a turn for the better but if not, a strong Champions League campaign could be crucial for Paulo Fonseca.
Liverpool on the other hand have impressed under Arne Slot, but for their most recent slip-up against Nottingham Forest. The Dutch manager has them playing an attractive brand of expansive football, aiming to dominate possession and suffocate their opponents.
As such, despite the home advantage, this immediately looks like a steep challenge for the Serie A strugglers who will also be conscious of the Milan Derby that’s just around the corner.
AC Milan v Liverpool Best Bets
Given the respective starts to the season of both sides, backing Liverpool to win @ 1.91 surely merits intrigue. Liverpool sit top of the Premier League in terms of expected goals and expected points, in stark contrast to Milan who only just recorded their first win at the fourth time of asking.
Along similar lines, Mohammed Salah to score or assist @ 1.83 looks fantastic value. The Egyptian has already racked up six goal contributions in just four games and will be hungry for more. Milan’s defensive woes have seen them concede 2+ goals in three of their four matches which indicates Salah should at minimum get a chance or two.
In the individual markets a few selections stand out, one of which is Theo Hernandez To Draw 1+ Foul @ 1.25. The French fullback has drawn two fouls in each of his two starts this season and is averaging 1.57 per 90. In his five seasons as a Serie A player he has never completed a season winning fewer than this on average. Another option is to back Tijjani Reijnders To Have 1 Or More Shots @ 1.25. The Dutch midfielder has averaged 2.48 shots per 90 in Serie A and 3.00 per 90 in the Nations League. Five of his seven league shots have come from outside the box so if Liverpool do dominate possession and limit Milan’s chances, Reijnders could nonetheless let loose from range to bring this selection home.
📂 AC Milan v Liverpool Cheat Sheet
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The Champions League is well and truly back for the 24/25 season and our signature football betting predictions are back too. Make sure to check out our Champions League acca and Champions League Bet Builder Tips to help you back a winner for the first week of the Champions League.
It doesn’t stop there either, with a selection of both teams to score tips, along with player prop market predictions to fold into bet builders, like our card betting tips, player shots on target tips, and fouls betting predictions.
If you enjoy this betting preview, be sure to check out our bet builder stats tool, the best freely available data source for punting on football, available for all Champions League fixtures this week.
📊 AC Milan Form and Stats
Despite an initial rough start to the season, Milan turned it around last Saturday, demolishing Serie A newbies Venezia 4-0. It was Milan’s first win of the season and helped combat growing pressure on Paulo Fonseca who is yet to win over the Rossoneri fanbase. Draws with Lazio and Torino on top of their loss to newly promoted Parma raised real concerns with regards to the club’s direction, but a win against Liverpool would surely put them to rest, at least for the time being.
This is the fourth time in a row Milan have qualified for the Champions League but in that time they’ve only made it out of the group stage once. Last season was not one of those occasions, but the sleeping giants provided a lot of entertainment as they gathered a very respectable eight points in the widely touted ‘group of death’.
Under Stefano Pioli they won at St. James’ Park and at home to PSG but failed to build on the point they brought back from Dortmund, losing 3-1 at home to the German side. It was a tough group and their two wins, two draws and two losses would have been enough to see them through on another day but PSG narrowly pipped them to it.
Injury-wise, most of their first-team players are fit but injuries to Florenzi, Bennacer, Thiaw and Sportiello reduce the depth they have available. That could be slightly problematic given the Milan derby shortly follows but this early in the season it shouldn’t affect Fonseca’s selection too much.
📊 Liverpool Form and Stats
It had been a very positive start for Arne Slot and Liverpool until they slumped to defeat against Nottingham Forest last Saturday. Each of their first three victories were at minimum by a two-goal margin, with the highlight undoubtedly being their 3-0 dismantling of Man United at Old Trafford. The Reds have comfortably outscored their opponents in terms of xG in every match without exception and are arguably unlucky to have picked up just nine points.
Having previously qualified for the Champions League on six consecutive occasions, Liverpool will be pleased to be back where they belong following their somewhat tedious 23/24 Europa League campaign. They impressed in the UCL group stage last time out picking up 15 points, the only loss coming against Italian opposition in Napoli as they were defeated 4-1 on the road.
Unfortunately, their campaign ended shortly after as they were drawn against Spanish giants, Real Madrid in the Round of 16. A 5-2 loss at Anfield was all but enough to confirm their exit from the competition but Madrid made sure to complete the double, winning 1-0 at home as well.
At the time of writing, Liverpool have a full squad available bar long-term absentee, Harvey Elliott who has broken his foot, and possibly Federico Chiesa who is still adjusting to life in Liverpool and regaining match fitness.
⚔️ AC Milan v Liverpool Head-to-Head
Milan and Liverpool have faced off four times in the Champions League; two of those came in the 21/22 group stages, whilst the other two were the Champions League Finals of 2005 and 2007. If you’ve ever come across a Liverpool fan before, you’ll probably know what happened in Istanbul in 2005, and Milan’s most recent Champions League triumph in 07 also lives long in the memory.
More recently, Liverpool did the double over Milan in their group stage clashes of 2021, winning 3-2 at home and 2-1 on the road in the last competitive matches between the sides. Since then, Liverpool also claimed victory in a friendly just before Christmas in 2022 but the teams were pretty rotated and the objective was more so to maintain fitness than anything else.
Football Predictions at Andy’s Bet Club
Everyone should take their time to find their own approach, but our guide on how to use a Cheat Sheet is a great place to start if you’re unsure how to make the most of them.
We aim to help all our readers bet smarter, and our guides to the best betting sites for accumulators and the top bet builder sites, along with our collections of Champions League free bet and sign up offers, free bet offers and weekly free bet clubs, are perfect starting points to ensure your money goes further when betting with the best UK sports betting sites.
Our experts have also put together helpful guides, such as this one on xG in football, all aimed at giving you the skills and knowledge to level up your punting game.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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